Anthropic officially launched its roadshow, and this is set to be the largest IPO in history, landing on the market on November 19. However, the controversy surrounding its valuation has not subsided from the beginning.

According to the amended S-1 filing, Anthropic plans to issue 825 million shares at a price of $70 to $78 per share, with the stock code ANT, and the pricing will be determined on the evening before November 19 (next Thursday). Along with the 1.2375 billion shares of over-allotment and $26 billion in private placements, the total funding amount will exceed $100 billion, surpassing the previous record of $86.2 billion set by SpaceX.

Goldman Sachs serves as the lead underwriter for this IPO, along with 20 other banks, including Morgan Stanley. CNBC cited sources stating that 20% of the shares in this IPO have been allocated to retail investors, with the pricing to be determined on the day of the listing, and the subscription applications have covered the entire issuance range.

However, whether Anthropic's market value is $1 trillion or $1.4 trillion depends on how the shares are calculated. Reuters and Bloomberg both set its market value at about $1 trillion, while CNBC reported it as $1.405 trillion. Both numbers are verifiable, but the bases are entirely different. Regardless of the calculation method used, this valuation is 30% to 50% lower than the $2 trillion target that was circulating in the market in early October.

The Valuation Mystery: Two Numbers, Each Well-Founded

The gap between $1 trillion and $1.4 trillion arises from the different bases for calculating shares.

Based on the actual circulating shares: adding the current 11.93 billion shares (including preferred shares and common stock converted from Amazon's convertible notes) with the new 801 million shares from the IPO and approximately 333 million shares from the private placement results in a total of about 13.07 billion shares. At $78 per share, the market value is about $1.02 trillion, which is also the basis commonly used by index providers.

To reach $1.4 trillion, however, one must include the non-circulating shares:

1.77 billion employee stock options, with an average exercise price of only $2.91, 96% of which are in the money, corresponding to a market value of approximately $138 billion;

1.07 billion unvested RSUs, corresponding to a market value of approximately $84 billion;

An additional 29 million shares from acquisition and donation matching projects after September 30, corresponding to about $2 billion;

2.05 billion shares reserved for the 2026 equity incentive plan and employee stock ownership plan, corresponding to about $160 billion.

It is worth noting that the $160 billion worth of shares has not yet been granted to anyone. Excluding this portion, the fully diluted valuation is approximately $1.24 trillion. The prediction market Polymarket had listed the range of $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion as the most probable range before the prospectus was released, which closely aligns with the final declaration range.

Goldman Sachs Predictions: Revenue Exceeding $600 Billion by 2030

Goldman Sachs, as the lead underwriter for this IPO, has provided extremely aggressive predictions for Anthropic's growth prospects.

According to the Financial Times, Goldman Sachs expects Anthropic's revenue to be about $52 billion this year, reaching $136 billion by 2027, $442 billion by 2029, and surpassing $600 billion by 2030—this number is over 130 times the company's $4.6 billion sales in 2025.

However, this growth path comes with massive cash consumption. Goldman Sachs expects $12.8 billion in free cash flow out in Q4 of 2026, soaring to $65.7 billion in 2027, and anticipates that free cash flow will only turn positive by 2030, reaching $33.6 billion by then. Operating losses are expected to peak at about $40.4 billion in 2027, turning profitable in 2029, with operating profit expected to reach $65.2 billion in 2030.

The prospectus disclosed that as of October 31, Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate had reached $81 billion, growing by $10 billion month-on-month. Based on the upper limit of the issuance range and the fully diluted basis, investors are currently paying a sales multiple of about 17 times; if calculated based on circulating shares, it is about 13 times.

$26 Billion Private Placement: Vendors as Shareholders

Another major highlight of this IPO is the $26 billion private placement arrangement—seven subscribers are simultaneously core suppliers of Anthropic.

According to the prospectus, the subscribed amounts from each party and the products or services they provide to Anthropic are as follows:

Google: $10 billion (cloud services and TPU)

NVIDIA: $10 billion (GPU)

AMD: $2.5 billion (GPU)

Broadcom: $1 billion (custom chips)

Micron: $1 billion (memory)

Microsoft: $1 billion (cloud services)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company: $500 million (chip foundry)

This structure means that funds flow from suppliers to Anthropic as equity investment and then return to suppliers in the form of purchase orders. Furthermore, the prospectus shows that part of Google's $10 billion is used to fulfill obligations that were already committed in a prior agreement from 2026. Therefore, the truly newly added funds in the private placement may only be about $16 billion. Amazon, due to limitations on its ownership stake, is converting its convertible notes only within the ceiling limit and has not participated in this placement.

Record-Breaking Financing Scale, But Even More Shocking Bills

The $100 billion financing scale sets a historical record, but compared to the spending commitments Anthropic has already signed, it still seems insufficient.

The prospectus reveals that Anthropic's commitments for computational resources and chip purchases are nearing $901 billion, of which about $71 billion is due within the 12 months ending September 2027. In other words, this largest funding raised in history can only cover about 15 months of signed bills, accounting for roughly one-tenth of the total commitment.

Meanwhile, the financial data in the prospectus also shows some pressure: revenue in Q3 grew 47% sequentially to $16.96 billion, but the growth rate substantially slowed from 144% in Q2; operating profit turned from $974 million in Q2 to a loss of $567 million in Q3, with operating expenses reaching $17.5 billion; price cuts and contract discounts led to a reduction of about $600 million in revenue growth in Q3, and the Fable model pricing launched on Monday has been further reduced by 20%, which has not yet been accounted for in the above data.

Market Background: Pricing Game Amidst AI Stock Selloff Shadow

Anthropic's IPO roadshow coincides with a severe shock to the AI sector.

The Nasdaq 100 index previously recorded its biggest single-day drop since the COVID-19 pandemic, with market concerns that a Democratic sweep in Congress could freeze up to 45% of data center construction plans.

H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese stated before the official documents were released, that due to the overall sell-off of AI stocks, Anthropic's potential IPO valuation is under pressure. The valuation range discussed by investors has been adjusted from the previous $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion down to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. However, the October revenue run rate exceeding $80 billion indicates that the valuation downgrade reflects market sentiment more than a substantive deterioration in fundamentals.

Conversely, the sentiment in the crypto market is relatively optimistic. The implied market capitalization of Anthropic's pre-IPO contracts on the Hyperliquid platform once rebounded to about $1.7 trillion following the release of the prospectus, which is about 20% higher than the upper limit of the fully diluted valuation range.

It is noteworthy that the prospectus describes the company's mission using the phrase "ushering in an era of miracles," while also warning of "existential risks" to humanity and specifies in the risk factors that the company models "have exhibited unexpected, inconsistent, or autonomous behaviors in the past and may do so in the future, including harmful actions taken without user or third-party guidance."

OpenAI is currently raising funds at a valuation of $1.25 trillion and has postponed its IPO plans to 2027, closely monitoring every price movement in this Anthropic IPO. On November 19, the market will provide the first public benchmark for valuations in the AI industry.

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