I mentioned earlier that I don't often write articles about macroeconomics and economic crises, but sometimes I feel it's particularly necessary to write them. However, that kind of writing is no longer to predict what impact a crisis will have on investments, but to illustrate what I believe is a very important principle in investing:

That is, you must use idle money and absolutely cannot use money that encroaches on living expenses for investment. At all times, you must reserve at least 18 months or even more of living expenses for yourself.

If you can't do this, you should not participate in any investment.

But writing such articles is very tiring because if I don't cover the key points, readers might not understand or grasp the stakes; if I hit the key points, it is very likely to trigger various sensitive terms, so I often find myself in a dilemma, wasting effort.

In the past few years, I have often encountered very awkward situations while writing articles, and there were two times I struggled for a long time.

The first time was after the second online sharing event in January last year; I felt it was still necessary to write some in-depth analysis articles. The second time was while writing the series of articles "Lessons from Japan."

In these two instances, my articles were initially much longer and more extensive, but after writing them, either for safety I repeatedly revised and removed sensitive terms, resulting in something that was as good as unwritten and completely unnecessary to publish; or I finished writing feeling that it was thoroughly covered, only to find out that it was impossible to publish.

Therefore, ultimately, after some articles were completely written, they were still deleted and not published.

Additionally, in these years, I have had a change in my thoughts that I previously did not anticipate, as this change fundamentally contradicts one of the original intentions for writing articles on this public account.

Initially, one of my very important intentions for writing this public account was that I believed the crypto ecosystem could provide the general public with an opportunity and path different from traditional investment fields, as the entry threshold for capital participation in the crypto ecosystem is very low, and it does not require the identity and regulatory thresholds typical in traditional investment fields.

Thus, I was once optimistic about the public's participation in the crypto ecosystem and explicitly recommended that the public could view Bitcoin and Ethereum positively.

But now, I no longer see it that way. Therefore, I will no longer actively encourage the public to participate; I will no longer mention participation in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I may even advise the public to be cautious.

Why this change?

This change occurred after reading Duan Yongping's investment Q&A record.

Duan Yongping said a very sharp statement in the Q&A (roughly paraphrased):

In fact, at least 85% of the public is simply not suitable for participating in any investment, but this 85% will not admit it. There's nothing embarrassing about honestly admitting that one is not suitable for any investment. Because if one dares to admit this, it’s impressive and surpasses at least 85% of the public.

After Duan Yongping made this statement, someone on Xueqiu challenged it (roughly paraphrased):

If one does not participate in any investment, doesn’t that mean the money in the bank earns interest that can't even outpace inflation?

Subsequently, Duan Yongping replied with a statement that I have repeatedly quoted in my previous articles (roughly paraphrased):

Keeping money in the bank even with interest that can't beat inflation is still better than investing recklessly.

At first glance, I found Duan Yongping’s words to be very hurtful.

However, through my experiences and observations over the past few years, I gradually recognized that what he said might indeed be the truth. Moreover, when he mentioned that some of the public is not suitable for participating in any investment, I believe this includes not being suitable for participating in the crypto ecosystem.

I can't say that at least 85% of people are unsuitable for any investment, but I feel that at least 50% are essentially gambling, while thinking they are investing.

Gambling is acceptable if one has a talent for it, and there are indeed people in the world who can continuously make money at casinos and become quite wealthy. However, the vast majority of those who gamble do not have the talent for it and cannot make a long-term profit at the gambling table.

I absolutely do not have that talent.

Having written these several articles, I can summarize:

New projects worth writing about in the crypto ecosystem are scarce;

What I previously felt was necessary to write about macroeconomics and crisis predictions, now I believe is unnecessary to write;

What I once thought was very necessary to chase, the "hundredfold coin," now I believe there is no need to pursue it deliberately; if found, that’s good; if not, maintaining a calm mindset for investment is better;

What I wanted to write in-depth articles about has been hindered by various reasons and sensitivities, so I wrote but couldn't publish;

The articles I really wanted to write, regarding the public's participation in the crypto ecosystem, I now also believe there is no need to write;

Thus, the topics I can write about are now very few. I can only write some casual observations and reflections.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到[email protected]，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。