Author: David, Shenchao TechFlow

The U.S. midterm elections concluded on November 3.

The Democratic Party secured both the House and Senate, achieving a blue shift. The Trump administration will face a Congress controlled by the opposition party for the remainder of its term, turning the possibility of investigations and subpoenas from verbal statements into actionable tools.

This change has also started to impact the crypto assets directly related to his family.

During and after the election counting period, the official TRUMP token and World Liberty Financial's WLFI experienced double-digit declines, with different data sources showing a drop between 11% and 21%.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and most other assets rose during the same period. The two tokens had already significantly retraced before the election, which was certainly due to the overall downturn in the crypto market; however, looking at the performance of family-related tokens during the election window provides clearer insights:

According to CoinMarketCap data, during and after the election counting, the official TRUMP token saw a 24-hour decline of about 21%, while WLFI dropped over 7% during the same period. At the same time, Bitcoin and most other assets rose.

Therefore, the market did not treat the election as an overall negative, but rather individually priced the politically exposed assets.

This change also has its real basis.

A member of Congress, about to take over the House Oversight Committee, stated publicly that they will use their subpoena power to investigate the Trump family’s crypto-related businesses after the new Congress begins in January.

World Liberty Financial and the related investments in the UAE are a key focus. Previously, similar requests were mostly in the form of letters, lacking enforcement power. Now that there is subpoena power, investigations can turn from possible to enforceable, significantly changing the deterrence and market expectations.

At the same time, another clue also indicates a shift.

On-chain data shows that wallets associated with the Trump Media Group transferred approximately 4,259 Bitcoins to Crypto.com, amounting to about $344 million.

This transfer nearly corresponds to the 4,260.73 Bitcoins disclosed by the company on June 30, which were used as collateral for convertible notes. These collaterals have withdrawal restrictions under the loan agreement, not to be lifted until May 2028.

Meanwhile, noteholders can request cash repayment on November 30, with the scale likely approaching $1 billion.

Crypto.com is one of the custodians publicly disclosed by the company before. Similar transfers were made in May and August this year, with the company explicitly stating at that time that it was for custodial management rather than sale. Reports indicate that shortly after this transfer, part of the funds was moved to Crypto.com's cold wallet.

Currently, there has been no official explanation from the company regarding this latest transfer, but considering the election results and the backdrop of stock price declines, it appears to be preparing for the repayment window at the end of the month or adjusting the custody location of the collateral.

Even so, this on-chain activity has caught the market's attention. It appeared after the election results became clear and can easily be interpreted as family-related assets facing both financial and regulatory pressures simultaneously.

For TRUMP and WLFI, the prices have already reacted. Political connections which once were a source of premium in bull markets and smooth periods are now turning into discount factors.

Over the past two years, the pricing logic of these assets largely relied on "Trump in office" itself. The election results have changed this premise. The market now needs to recalculate how much political premium the family crypto business can retain under the circumstances of the opposition party holding subpoena power.