Capital flight from Bitcoin? ZEC surges and new chips from Strategy.

CN
1 month ago

On September 30, a price curve for privacy assets and a dividend scheme for traditional securities hedged out drastically different sentiment indicators during the same time period: Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated on the X platform that in the past year, the price of ZEC has increased from about $60 to about $1,500, and its market cap as a percentage of Bitcoin has risen from less than 0.1% to about 1.5%. He emphasized that Grayscale believes this round of pricing has not reached its valuation ceiling and sees it as a signal of the expansion of privacy asset shares (according to a single source); almost simultaneously, Strategy began to rely on perpetual preferred shares, which do not dilute shareholder equity, to continue buying Bitcoin after the premium for common stock holding Bitcoin assets disappeared. The current circulation of preferred shares exceeds $14 billion, with corresponding annualized yields reaching up to 12%. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor also proposed adjusting the frequency of preferred share dividend payments from every half month or quarter to daily payments to enhance the liquidity and market efficiency of preferred shares. This proposal is believed by several crypto media to have a high probability of passing, but it has not yet received official confirmation (according to a single source). On one side is the privacy technology and valuation space actively lifted into the narrative center by Grayscale, and on the other side is the "bond-like" chips transformed by high yields and higher frequency cash flows. These seemingly unrelated pieces of news point to the same underlying meaning: funds are seeking new points of emphasis outside of Bitcoin that combine privacy narratives and high-yield structures, and market preferences are quietly shifting from a singular expectation of price increase to a more complex mix of risk and return.

Rising to $1,500 in a Year: ZEC Captures Bitcoin's Attention

Along this line of fund migration "beyond Bitcoin," ZEC has become the most conspicuous example. According to a single source, Zach Pandl revealed in a September 30 post that over the past year, the price of ZEC rose from about $60 to about $1,500, a trend sufficient to seize headlines in any market cycle. More dramatically, the same post stated that the market value of ZEC as a proportion of Bitcoin’s market cap has risen from less than 0.1% to about 1.5% over the year (according to a single source), indicating its position in the Bitcoin "mother fund" has been rapidly amplified, moving from the periphery into the spotlight.

The Grayscale research team, according to a single source, indicated that ZEC has not reached its valuation ceiling and believes there is still room for expansion. This public optimism will itself reinforce the market's imagination that "the peak has not yet been reached." However, it is crucial to emphasize that all statements about the price range of ZEC, the change in market cap proportion, and its valuation space are based solely on a single source without cross-validation from multiple data points. Under such information premises, whether ZEC is genuinely prying into the Bitcoin market or merely a narrative crescendo that has been amplified remains a question that requires more time and independent evidence to answer.

Rising Demand for Privacy? Grayscale Bets on the Zcash Story

In Grayscale's narrative, the price of ZEC increasing from about $60 to about $1,500 and its proportion of Bitcoin's market cap rising from less than 0.1% to about 1.5% over the past year (according to a single source) is not merely an isolated price surge but the result of a "repricing of privacy demand curves." Grayscale's research director, Zach Pandl, in his post on September 30, directly tied this set of changes to the judgment that "the market demand for privacy protection technology will continue to grow" (according to a single source), putting Zcash's privacy technology advantage at the heart of this hypothesized demand curve, openly stating that Grayscale believes ZEC is far from its valuation ceiling at current levels (according to a single source).

Within this framework, the privacy sector has been pulled back from the fringes of a Bitcoin-dominated narrative to the center stage, depicted as the next storyline that funds may pursue, with the rise of ZEC and the expansion of its market share becoming a ready-made example (according to a single source). Grayscale's logic is that if the on-chain world’s demand for "optional privacy" technology is indeed strengthening, assets with relevant technologies should gain higher valuation weights in the overall crypto market. However, this pathway from technological characteristics to asset pricing is still more of a forward-looking assumption than a proven law. Whether ZEC can continue to endorse this privacy demand narrative through market share expansion ultimately depends on whether the market is willing to assign stable rather than short-term premiums to such technologies over a longer time frame.

Bitcoin Premium Erosion: Strategy Shifts to Preferred Shares

On the same timeline of Bitcoin narratives fluctuating, Strategy first sensed that the "story" on its common stock was fading. Once, the market was willing to pay additional premiums for its Bitcoin positions, trading a traditional listed company as a magnifier of crypto assets. However, according to a single source, as such premiums gradually returned to rational levels, Strategy's common stock increasingly resembled an "ordinary stock," making it difficult to justify new Bitcoin purchases through price projections. The erosion of premiums did not change the direction of its Bitcoin investments but forced the company to rewrite its financing structure.

The new solution is perpetual preferred shares. A single source revealed that Strategy is turning to raise funds using perpetual preferred shares that do not dilute shareholder equity, continuing to expand its Bitcoin position while maintaining its current equity structure without dilution. As of now, the circulation of its preferred shares has exceeded $14 billion, with annualized yields reaching up to 12%, clearly positioned as high-yield chips to attract income-focused funds. For existing common stockholders, the company no longer tries to tell the Bitcoin story using stock price premiums, instead shifting fundraising pressure to a capital structure with interest payments; for income-chasing funds, this serves as a tool to exchange fixed returns for participation in a long-term Bitcoin position strategy. Strategy has made the conversion from price premiums to interest payment premiums a reality through this set of perpetual preferred shares, continuing to increase its Bitcoin position without diluting shareholders.

The Allure of Daily Dividends: $14 Billion Preferred Shares Competing for Income Funds

After rewriting price premiums as interest payment premiums, Strategy's next step is to move the "time dimension” of preferred shares. According to a single source, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor proposed changing the current semi-monthly or quarterly preferred share dividend payments to daily payments. The reason he provides is straightforward: on a pool of perpetual preferred shares over $14 billion with an annualized yield of up to 12% (according to a single source), cutting cash flow into daily granularity can improve liquidity and pricing efficiency in the secondary market, making these securities more like an "income machine" that can be adjusted at any time, thus further attracting funds chasing interest returns.

The imaginative space of daily dividends lies in the ability for funds to conduct finer trading and risk management around daily cash flows, but it currently remains in the proposal stage. According to a single source, several news outlets including Odaily Planet Daily, Golden Finance, Deep Tide TechFlow, and BlockBeats report that there is a general belief within the industry regarding a significant probability for this proposal to pass, yet they intentionally distinguish between "market judgment" and "official confirmation." The fact repository has not disclosed specific voting times, voting procedures, effective dates, nor precise calculations on Strategy’s cash flow rhythms, financing cost changes, or Bitcoin purchase rhythms. Before these key variables are revealed, daily dividends remain a strong design competing for the attention of income-seeking funds rather than a concrete and established reality.

A New Battlefield Beyond Bitcoin: How Far Can Capital Migration Go?

As ZEC reportedly increased its proportion of Bitcoin's market cap from less than 0.1% to about 1.5% within a year, while Strategy uses a tool of perpetual preferred shares exceeding $14 billion with annual yields up to 12%, further adding daily dividends to compete for income funds, the two seemingly unrelated stories point towards the same theme: funds are actively seeking new battlefields outside of Bitcoin that combine privacy narratives with structured high returns. The increase in privacy asset shares indicates that some incremental and existing funds are willing to pay a premium for technology and narratives; the Bitcoin treasury company's continued accumulation of positions through innovative financing methods after the premium diminishes could reshape the market structure of "who buys Bitcoin and with what assets" over a longer cycle. It needs to be emphasized that the prices, proportions, scales, and yields mentioned in this article come from a single source report and should not be viewed as conclusions validated by multiple cross-sections, nor can they preset the direction and rhythm of future trends. The migration of fund preferences among privacy assets, income tools, and Bitcoin itself is likely a repeated exploration process rather than an already predetermined unilateral escape.

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