Trader Taiki, who previously profited from ZEC, stated: ZEC is projected to reach $20,000 in this cycle, and privacy-styled store of value assets are being revalued.

Key Summary

We are in the early stages of a raging bull market: Taiki believes this is not a bear market but rather the beginning phase of a bull market. The market shows a "K-shaped recovery," with most altcoins going to zero while a few assets are on their own independent bull markets (like HYPE and LIT), "winners flatten winners, losers flatten losers."
ZEC is a severely undervalued "privacy version of BTC": Zcash's current market cap is about 1.8% to 1.9% of BTC, and Taiki believes it can be repriced to 10%/20%/30%; it is more differentiated compared to BCH and LTC and is ahead of "ossified" BTC on the quantum roadmap.
How is $20,000 calculated?: In a bear market scenario, ZEC = 5% of BTC market cap × BTC $100k ≈ $5,000; in a bull market, = 20% × $100k = $20,000; during a frenzy peak, it could even reach 30% to 50%. "Zcash lags Bitcoin by two cycles; BTC reached $20k two cycles ago, why can't ZEC?"
Fundamentals are the price itself (reflexivity): The larger Zcash's shielded pool, the stronger the privacy; the higher the price, the more wealth the shielded pool can accommodate, making the product better. ZEC breaking $1,000 and standing above 1% of BTC's market cap is a "crossing of the chasm, the parabola just beginning" in Taiki's view.
Early heavy betting, later profit-taking: When perceived risk is highest, actual risk is the lowest (everyone still has cash and is afraid to buy); Taiki suggests taking the most risk in the early 10% to 30% stage of a bull market and reducing exposure when everyone shouts that the bull market is back.
Take profit using the "next 2x rule": According to the ZEC/BTC market cap ratio, moving from 1% to 2% (which can be done in two weeks) is easy, from 2% to 4% is not difficult, but from 4% to 8% starts to get challenging (8% is the first profit-taking point, LTC reached 8% back then); Taiki's first target is 3% to 4% of BTC's market cap, at which point he will reduce leverage and keep cash on hand, and hold spot positions to wait for long-term capital gains.
Trading style is a "long hit rate" player: Better to have a high concentration, strong conviction, and strict risk control than to have a high win rate with small positions. "Put all eggs in one basket and watch that basket closely. Be a courageous pig." Winners flatten winners, and never catch falling knives to flatten losers.

Highlights of Opinions

On the bull market: "I still see a lot of negative sentiment on the timeline. Bear market? Where? My eyesight isn't great, but I truly don't see it. We are in the early stages of a raging bull market."
On ZEC's positioning: "Zcash is an alternative store of value to Bitcoin. Bitcoin has become ossified, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage; Zcash's developer community is willing to upgrade to respond to quantum computing."
On $20k: "If BTC reaches $100k, ZEC at 20% is $20,000. Is that really so crazy? BTC was at $20k two cycles ago; why can't ZEC also reach $20k?"
On reflexivity: "Zcash gets better as it rises; price itself is the fundamental. This is exactly the same as Bitcoin."
On profit-taking: "When it hits 4% to 8%, it becomes challenging, and LTC once reached 8%, so 8% may be the first profit-taking level, followed by a correction."
On risk: "When perceived risk is highest, actual risk is lowest because everyone still holds cash and is too scared to buy."
On trading philosophy: "Put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket very closely. Being a courageous pig requires courage."

The main text is as follows:

1. Bull Market Mobilization: We are in the early stages of a raging bull market

At the beginning of the video, Taiki injects a "bull market booster." He sees a lot of negative sentiment on the timeline, bear market? Where? But looking around he only sees spot holders and fundamental investors in a bull market. Hyperliquid is nearing triple digits, Zcash was at $800 two weeks ago, and is now approaching $1,500, while LIT, which was under $1 months ago, is now at $5.

Taiki's core judgment is: We are currently in a "K-shaped recovery," where most altcoins will go to zero, and only a few assets will embark on their own independent bull markets, succeeding without relying on BTC's rise. Projects like HYPE and LIT, which direct most of their income and profits back into tokens, are typical.

Taiki makes a joke about himself: there’s a saying on Twitter about the "Taiki Maeda curse," claiming that whenever Taiki is bullish on a coin, it drops by 30%; yet, after meeting with LIT's founder Vlad and posting a picture, LIT actually rose by 20%, breaking the curse—are you still bearish?

2. The Bullish Logic for Zcash: The Undervalued "Privacy Version of BTC"

Taiki believes Zcash is one of the biggest winners of this cycle. He first gives a broad statement: A 5 to 10 times increase for ZEC is entirely possible.

The logical chain is: Bitcoin was criticized in its early years for three points: programmability, scalability, and privacy; ETH and SOL resolved the first two points and thus skyrocketed, while Zcash focuses mainly on the privacy aspect. As the market matures, the privacy narrative will only strengthen; will people care about privacy in two or three years? Certainly. Moreover, concerns about quantum computing stealing Satoshi coins diminish Bitcoin's appeal as a long-term holding since Zcash clearly leads BTC on the quantum roadmap.

The key piece of data: Zcash is currently about 1.8% to 1.9% of BTC's market cap, and Taiki believes it can be repriced to 10%/20%/30%. Bitcoin is ossified, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage; Zcash represents a developer community willing to upgrade to respond to challenges like quantum.

3. Price Target: Why $20,000 is not Crazy

Taiki brings up historical references:

LTC reached a peak of 8% of BTC's market cap and maintained a range of 3% to 6% for about a year;
BCH once peaked at 40% of BTC (spike), but the realistic range was close to 10% to 20% for nearly a year, where the market genuinely believed BCH was worth about 15% of BTC;
Analogous to physical items: Silver is about 13% of gold's market cap.

Taiki's target range:

Bear market scenario: ZEC = 5% of BTC's market cap. If BTC reaches $100k, ZEC ≈ $5,000; "Is that crazy? LTC reached 8% back then, ZEC at 5% is not outrageous."
Bull market scenario: ZEC = 20% of BTC's market cap. If BTC reaches $100k, ZEC = $20,000.
Frenzied peak: 20%/30%/40% are all possible; Taiki even does not rule out 50%, just "don't be too moon boy."

Taiki makes a comparison: Everyone says Zcash is lagging Bitcoin by two cycles, but didn't BTC also reach $20k two cycles ago? Why can’t ZEC reach $20k?

4. Fundamentals are the Price Itself: Reflexivity of the Shielded Pool

Zcash has two types of addresses: public addresses (like BTC, anyone can see the balance) and shielded addresses (once in the shielded pool, subsequent actions cannot be tracked).

A key observation is: over the past year, the number of ZEC in the shielded pool has only increased and never decreased, and the price has only risen and never fallen. Moreover, the larger the shielded pool, the stronger the privacy; when the pool only holds $100 million, a billionaire wanting to hide $10 million (1% of net worth) is essentially exposing themselves; but as prices rise and the pool grows larger, it can accommodate individuals with higher net worth. This means that the higher the price, the more wealth the shielded pool can protect, making the product better, more people use it, and the price higher—this is reflexivity. Zcash becomes more useful as it rises; the price itself is fundamental, just like Bitcoin.

Taiki believes ZEC breaking $1,000 and standing at 1% of BTC's market cap means it has crossed the chasm, and the true parabola just began. Once reasonable BTC maximalists start shifting 1% to 10% of their positions from BTC to ZEC, marginal funds will continuously push up the price. However, he also cautions: ZEC will likely have a massive surge followed by an 80% to 90% drop, so it’s essential to think clearly about when to take profits.

5. Understanding and Realizing Risk: Early Heavy Betting, Later Profit-Taking

Taiki presents a counterintuitive view: when perceived risk is highest, actual risk is the lowest. Because when everyone thinks it’s dangerous, they hold on to cash and are afraid to buy, the market hasn’t fully entered; by the time BTC breaks $90k and everyone shouts that the bull market has returned, it’s actually time to reduce exposure.

Taiki’s operational philosophy: take on the most risk in the early 10% to 30% phase of a bull market, then gradually reduce risk exposure. Taiki does this himself; he leveraged his position in ZEC at a low point, and although profits are now verified and great, using leverage made him uncomfortable when no one was buying a month ago, so he must have the discipline to take profits.

6. How to Take Profit on ZEC: The Next 2x Rule

Since this is a narrative-driven asset without cash flow, determining timing for buying and selling is very challenging. Taiki's framework is the "next 2x rule," observing how difficult it is for the ZEC/BTC market cap ratio to climb each step:

1% → 2%: very easy (actually completed in two weeks);
2% → 4%: not difficult, just a doubling;
4% → 8%: starts to get tough, 8% is the first profit-taking point (LTC reached 8% back then); usually followed by a wave of correction;
8% → 16%: every 2x becomes increasingly difficult.

Taiki's first target is ZEC reaching 3% to 4% of BTC's market cap (if BTC reaches $80k by the end of the year, this corresponds to about $2,400 to $3,200). When that happens, he will reduce leverage and keep cash, continuing to hold spot positions to enjoy long-term capital gains. He believes the remaining position can reach 10% to 20%, but if you think something is certain to happen, that's exactly when you're being burned; those who were certain last year that it would rise in Q4 and were fully invested in altcoins all got wiped out.

Taiki also mentioned a recent NFT minted on Zcash and the potential scalability project Project Tachyon to launch next year, expressing that you should buy not based on what it is now but on what it could become in the future.

7. Trading Style: Long Hit Rate Player, Be a Courageous Pig

The final chapter discusses trading style. Taiki distinguishes between hit rate (win percentage) and long hit rate (odds): social media idolizes high win percentage, but high win percentages often come with low odds, and if bets are small, one cannot actually make money. Taiki himself is long hit rate: he would rather experience small losses 90% of the time but make substantial gains 10% of the time.

The methodology can be summed up in an old saying: "Put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket very closely. Being a courageous pig requires bravery."

Taiki built his position when ZEC was below $500, hit the bottom in June (the process was painful, but his conviction wasn't broken), and then increased his position all the way to $600/$700/$800 because once it breaks $700/$800, it will skyrocket, regardless of whether you bought at $500 or $480. Even though Taiki is very bullish now, he acknowledges that adding to his position near $1,500 makes him uncomfortable; this precisely conveys the mindset Taiki wants to share.

The final piece of advice: Winners flatten winners; don't flatten losers. Selling at soaring prices and buying at falling prices is like pulling flowers to water weeds.

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