Written by: Rita

Market concerns that the price increase of the iPhone 18 will suppress demand, while the delivery cycle is essentially the same as last year. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a report released on September 16, 2026, that the production of the Pro/Pro Max increased by 18% year-on-year, and the delivery cycle has not shortened, suggesting that demand may be better than feared. The firm maintains an overweight rating on Apple with a target price of $360. The current price is $331.34, indicating an upside potential of approximately 8.7%.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring noted in the report that the delivery cycle reflects the balance of supply and demand. Apple's Pro/Pro Max production for the second half of the year is 71 million units, compared to 60 million units at the same time last year. The fact that the delivery cycle has not shortened despite increased supply indicates that demand is also strengthening simultaneously. The firm believes this is a healthy early signal.

Delivery Cycle Flat with 18% Increase in Production

In the U.S., the Pro Max delivery cycle is 22.5 days, unchanged from last year; the Pro is 15.5 days, which is 1.3 days longer than last year. In Japan, the Pro Max is 29.5 days, which is 5.5 days longer than last year; the Pro is 22 days, which is 5.5 days longer than last year. The markets in the UK, France, and Germany are basically flat. China is the only market where the delivery cycle has shortened; the Pro Max delivery cycle is 27 days, which is 3.5 days shorter than last year; the Pro is 21 days, which is 9.5 days shorter than last year.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the shortening of the delivery cycle in China is mainly affected by local competition and demand pace, while the stability or slight lengthening in other markets is more significant. The global average Pro Max delivery cycle is 25 days, which is 0.4 days longer than last year; the Pro is 18.1 days, which is 0.7 days longer than last year. The stability of the global average data further supports the judgment of healthy demand. The flat delivery cycle combined with a significant increase in production is the report's most critical observation.

Two Factors Suppressing Delivery Cycle

This year, two factors may depress the early delivery cycle. The launch time of the iPhone Duo is 5 weeks later than that of the 18 Pro/Pro Max, and consumers seeking high-end iPhones may delay their purchases, waiting to compare after the Duo's release. This is similar to the iPhone X cycle, when the iPhone 8/8 Plus shipped 6 weeks earlier than the iPhone X.

The other factor is the $100 price increase across the iPhone 18 lineup, with even larger price increases in international markets. The price rise may suppress some upgrade demand, thereby depressing the early delivery cycle. Morgan Stanley believes that the presence of these two factors makes the flat delivery cycle itself more signal-worthy. In a situation where demand is under pressure, the stability of the delivery cycle indicates that real demand is stronger than the surface data. If these two suppressing factors were not present, the delivery cycle might be longer than it is now.

Subsidies and Base Provide Support

Apple has not yet released the basic model of the iPhone 18, Air 2, and 18e. The user base has increased by 7% year-on-year, but purchasing power is concentrated only in the two Pro models, without being spread across the four models of previous years. This amplifies the early demand for a single model.

Carrier subsidies are also increasing. Major U.S. wireless carriers have raised subsidies by $100 year-on-year, and Apple's upgrade programs and leasing options have expanded, partly offsetting the impact of price increases. Morgan Stanley believes that subsidies and leasing have lowered the threshold for users to upgrade, supporting early demand for the Pro series. The expanding user base and increased subsidies are important supports for the stability of the delivery cycle. These two factors were not prominent in previous iPhone cycles.

Limited Signals from Delivery Cycle

Morgan Stanley warns that the delivery cycle is just an early indicator of supply-demand balance and is not correlated with the strength of the iPhone cycle, iPhone revenue, or Apple's stock performance more than 3 months after release. The firm is more focused on changes in channel inventory, third-party sales data, and whether Apple adjusts its production plans. Adjustments to production plans will not occur until late October.

The upward risks listed by Morgan Stanley include better-than-expected iPhone 18 performance, higher adoption of Apple Intelligence than expected, the launch of new product lines by Apple, a renewed acceleration in service growth, and gross margins surpassing expectations. Downside risks include weak consumer spending limiting upgrade rates, rising memory costs, limited progress in AI features, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory pressures. The delivery cycle is only an early signal; real verification will depend on production plans and channel data.

Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating with a target price of $360, based on a 9.4 times CY27 enterprise value multiple, corresponding to about 35 times CY27 P/E ratio. If Apple adjusts its production plan in late October, will the early signals from the delivery cycle be validated or overturned?

Disclaimer

This article is a整理与解读 of a third-party brokerage research report (Morgan Stanley, September 16, 2026) by Chaoxiang Research, combined with整理 of public market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings predictions, and relevant judgments cited in the text are solely the views of the brokerage's analysts and represent their respective institutions' positions, not the views of Chaoxiang Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.

The market is risky, and decisions should be independent. This article should not be used as the basis for buying or selling any securities.