Written by: Rita

In August, eToro's cryptocurrency trading volume reached 5.3 million transactions, a sequential increase of 280%, but a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Goldman Sachs lowered its target price for eToro from $36 to $34 in a monthly report released on September 14, 2026, maintaining a neutral rating. The current price is $30.35, indicating an upside potential of 12%. ECC trading and eToro Money transfers fell short of expectations, offsetting the strength in cryptocurrency trading.

Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro pointed out in the report that the August trends were mixed. Cryptocurrency trading surged significantly, net interest income rose moderately, while ECC trading and eToro Money transfers were weaker than the bank's expectations, although both achieved moderate sequential growth. The bank has lowered its net contribution forecasts for 2027 and 2028 by 1%, primarily reflecting a weakening outlook for ECC and eToro Money.

Cryptocurrency Trading Increased by 280% Sequentially

In August, cryptocurrency trading totaled 5.3 million transactions, up 280% sequentially, but down 4% year-on-year. ECC trading was approximately 52 million transactions, a sequential increase of 7%, and a year-on-year increase of 31%. Total trading was 57 million transactions, a sequential increase of 14%, and a year-on-year increase of 27%, although it was 11% lower than the average of the previous 12 months.

Regarding commission income, total commissions in August were $42.8 million, a sequential increase of 19.7% and a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Revenue per transaction was $0.75, a sequential increase of 4.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%. Total daily commission revenue was $2 million, a sequential increase of 25% and a year-on-year increase of 6%, but 14% lower than the average of the previous 12 months. ECC daily commission revenue was $1.7 million, a sequential increase of 11.7% and a year-on-year increase of 70.6%. Daily cryptocurrency commission revenue was $200,000, a sequential increase of 278.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 65.9%.

Account Growth and Asset Scale

Goldman Sachs noted that in August, there were 40,000 net new accounts, unchanged from July. Total accounts at the end of August were approximately 4.3 million, an 18% year-on-year increase, and a 15% year-on-year increase after adjusting for the acquisition of Zengo and Bit2C, consistent with the management's long-term double-digit growth guidance. Total accounts increased by 1% sequentially.

Assets under management in August were $20.2 billion, a sequential increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Interest-bearing assets were $7.1 billion, a sequential increase of 4% but a year-on-year decrease of 7%. Fund transfers were $1.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33% and a sequential increase of 9%, but 9% lower than the average of the previous 12 months. Goldman Sachs believes that the increase in assets under management by $1.7 billion sequentially was mainly driven by market appreciation and net deposits. The annualized growth rate of net new accounts was approximately 11%, unchanged from July.

App Downloads and Active Users

In August, app downloads totaled 216,000, a sequential increase of 7%, but a year-on-year decrease of 25%, which is about 30% and 25% lower than the average levels of 2024 and 2025, respectively. In terms of geographic distribution, from 2026 to present, the UK accounted for 14%, and the US for 9%, showing a change from 12% and 13% in 2025. Monthly active users decreased by 20% year-on-year but remained flat sequentially, and were 12% and 18% lower than the average levels of 2024 and 2025.

Goldman Sachs noted that about 95% of monthly active users are from outside the United States. The UK is the largest market, accounting for 21%, followed by Germany and Italy at 14% and 12%, respectively. This geographic distribution supports eToro's international positioning but also indicates that execution risks for expansion in the US still exist. The geographic diversification of download numbers continues, with an increase in the UK share and a decrease in the US share. Goldman Sachs believes that app downloads and monthly active users are below historical average levels, reflecting that retail trading activity is still in a recovery phase.

Target Price Lowered to $34

Goldman Sachs has lowered its adjusted earnings per share estimates for 2026 to 2028 by 1%, 2%, and 1%, respectively, primarily reflecting a weakening outlook for ECC and eToro Money. The bank has lowered its price-to-earnings ratio for Q5 to Q8 from 9 times to 8.5 times, and its target price from $36 to $34. The earnings per share forecast for 2026 has been lowered from $2.56 to $2.54, for 2027 from $3.47 to $3.41, and for 2028 from $4.20 to $4.14.

Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating, with downside risks including a negative shift in the retail trading cycle, the impact of falling interest rates on net interest income, slower adoption due to a lack of cryptocurrency regulation, and the potential failure of US expansion execution. Upside risks include faster and cheaper US expansion, stronger differentiation of CopyTrader, slower expansion of US brokerages, and a resurgence in cryptocurrency trading. Goldman Sachs believes that whether the strength in cryptocurrency trading can be sustained and whether the weakness in ECC and eToro Money will continue will determine whether eToro can return to a growth trajectory.

Disclaimer

This article is a compilation and interpretation of a third-party brokerage research report (Goldman Sachs, September 14, 2026) by Chao Xiang Research, combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments quoted in the text are the opinions of the brokerage’s analysts and only represent the stance of their associated institutions, and do not represent the views of Chao Xiang Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.

The market carries risks; decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.