Author: Zhou, ChainCatcher
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI for August, showing an overall price increase of 3.4% year-on-year and a 0.4% month-on-month rise, both figures in line with market expectations. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, slowed to 2.4% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, but increased by 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.2%. Gasoline prices rose by 3.9% month-on-month, contributing to over one-third of the overall monthly increase, and the energy index climbed by 2.1%.
In the stock market, ahead of the data release, all Asia-Pacific markets fell, with the Nikkei 225 Index closing down 1.93%, the Korean KOSPI Index down 1.76%, and the four major A-share indices collectively opening lower and closing down. After the data was released, U.S. stocks opened higher but then fell back, ultimately closing up, with the S&P 500 Index rising by 0.9%, and both the Dow and Nasdaq each rising by about 1%. However, the three major indices still posted an overall decline for the week.
Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.974%, nearing the 5% mark, up from 4.783% just a week ago. Brent crude oil closed at $104.61 per barrel on the day, with a weekly increase of over 8%, driven by factors such as the Houthi attack on Saudi energy facilities and transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
The cryptocurrency market exhibited a pattern of initial suppression, followed by a rebound and then a retreat. Bitcoin dipped to around $76,000 following the data release, then surged to a high of $79,837, with the 50-day moving average briefly crossing above the 200-day moving average. However, as interest rate hike expectations quickly intensified, the price fell back, and the golden cross was rendered ineffective on the same day. Ethereum briefly returned above $2,600, showing stronger resilience than Bitcoin.
According to Coinglass data, as of publication, the total liquidation across the network reached $674 million within 24 hours, with approximately 94,000 people liquidated. Ethereum's liquidations amounted to $311 million, the highest, while Bitcoin's liquidations were $184 million, with the largest single liquidation occurring in Hyperliquid's ETH-USD position, amounting to approximately $20.28 million.
Rate hike probability rises to 80%, Fed's decision next week remains uncertain
For the Federal Reserve, the significance of the August CPI data had already been elevated prior to its release. Analysts at Bank of America previously stated that the August non-farm payroll data felt more like an appetizer, with the main course that will truly determine the direction for the September 15-16 rate-setting meeting being the CPI. The bank believes that unless the employment data shows a significant downward surprise, non-farm payrolls are unlikely to be the final deciding factor for a rate hike, and maintains its judgment for a September rate increase. The subsequently released August non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, about three times the expectation, and has already pushed the discussion of a rate hike forward.
After the CPI data was released, the market's attitude towards next week's Federal Reserve meeting sharply turned hawkish. Polymarket's latest data shows that the market bets on an 80% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points on September 16, with a 21% probability of no change, around a 1% chance of a 50 basis points increase, and less than 1% for rate cuts. Before the CPI release, maintaining the status quo had been the highest probability option for a considerable time, until the data was released when the rate hike option rapidly overtook it.
China International Capital Corporation's research notes that the August CPI has already reached the Federal Reserve's rate hike threshold, expecting a 25 basis points increase on September 16, and possibly revising down the unemployment rate forecast while raising the inflation forecast, signaling tightening. The financial blog Zero Hedge emphasizes that the core CPI is overheated, and super core inflation is even hotter, with historic increases in education and communication services prices, notably mobile communication services prices hitting a record high.
Goldman Sachs economist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo stated that the CPI on that day superficially met investors' expectations; however, it raised the suspense surrounding next week's interest rate decision. She believes that the data did not fully reflect some of the recently emerged inflationary pressures, with little evidence of inflation returning to target in the short term.
Energy remains an exogenous variable in this logic. The Houthi attack on Saudi energy facilities, transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia's closure of east-west oil pipelines continue to heighten supply concerns. The simultaneous existence of high oil prices and high interest rates has led Wall Street to frame the issue as how long high rates will last and whether policy can suppress inflation without significantly harming the economy and corporate profits.
RBC Capital Markets has adjusted its path for this year from previous expectations of rate cuts to three rate hikes, arguing that high rates may further suppress corporate profits and stock valuations. Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos recently stated that investors have basically accepted that the Fed will raise rates for the first time in three years next week, but the more challenging question is what will happen afterward.
Hardly anyone within the Federal Reserve believes that a single rate hike of 25 basis points would be sufficient to curb inflation. If they choose to raise rates next week, most investors will interpret it as a correction of the previously existing interest rate level, with a rate hike seen more as the beginning of a correction, and the likelihood of only doing it once is low. Since the 1990s, the Federal Reserve has rarely stopped after just one hike.
In July, Waller stated that he does not believe the Federal Reserve excels in fine-tuning. Analysts have deduced from this that a chairman skeptical of fine-tuning is unlikely to announce 'mission accomplished' after a 25 basis points hike. The market currently expects that by June next year, the total number of rate hikes will reach at least three, higher than the previous expectation of two.
For risk assets, Friday's rebound was mainly due to a clearer policy path, and inflation pressures themselves have not really been alleviated. The decrease in policy uncertainty may explain why the U.S. stock market still managed to close up after rate hike expectations heated up. The real pricing moment still lies in the decision on September 16, the dot plot, and Waller's press conference.
Bitcoin's golden cross is a one-day event, resistance at $82,000 appears
The cryptocurrency market reacted more sharply to this data. Within 4 hours after the CPI release, Bitcoin first dipped to $76,000, then rebounded over $79,000, before falling back to around $77,600. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation across the network during these 4 hours amounted to $471 million, with $348 million in short liquidations and $123 million in long liquidations, representing a typical dual slaughter.
Famous trader Killa presented statistical data indicating that in the past three releases of U.S. CPI, Bitcoin had risen over 5% within eight days. He believes the current market has already priced in negative news, setting a bear market trap.
Looking over a longer period, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility recently. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin rose by 24.95% in August, marking the best monthly performance of the year. However, momentum has weakened entering September, with a decrease of 1.83% within the month.
In terms of capital flows, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have diverged. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $463 million this week, with net assets approximately $97.58 billion, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of about $77,286; Ethereum spot ETFs, meanwhile, experienced a net inflow of $197 million during the same period, with net assets around $16.31 billion, corresponding to a price of about $2,539.
Regarding listed treasury companies, according to SoSoValue data, as of September 8 Eastern Time, the scale of Bitcoin purchases by global listed companies significantly slowed last week, with a net purchase total of $267 million, a decline of 48% from the previous week excluding mining companies. The total holdings of listed companies reached 1,119,973 Bitcoins, a decrease of 2.38% from the previous week, with a market value of about $87.77 billion, accounting for 5.6% of Bitcoin's circulating market capitalization.
Among them, Strategy's most recent increase occurred on August 31, purchasing 4,600 Bitcoins, now holding a total of 845,050 Bitcoins, with slight unrealized gains. According to the latest 8-K filing from Strategy, the company has raised approximately $20.9 billion this year, ranking fourth in the scale of stock issuance in the U.S., second only to SpaceX, Alphabet, and Intel. In contrast, Ethereum treasury company Bitmine continues to accumulate against the trend, adding 28,086 Ethereum last week, bringing its total holdings to 5,929,200 Ethereum at an average cost of $3,347, currently showing an unrealized loss of about $5 billion at the current price.
From a technical perspective, on September 12, Bitcoin briefly rose to $79,837, with the daily 50-day moving average momentarily crossing above the 200-day moving average, but the price subsequently fell back, and the golden cross soon vanished. This was the first occurrence of a daily golden cross for Bitcoin since November 2025 and the fastest to become ineffective, with short-term momentum simultaneously cooling. Similar golden crosses in February 2021, October 2023, and May 2025 had all been followed by a period of retracement, with the golden cross acting more like a lagging signal, as significant portions of the rally often had already played out by the time it emerged.
In terms of on-chain chips, analyst Murphy pointed out that short-term holder chips are primarily concentrated in the $59,000 to $81,000 range. If it breaks above $82,000, it means that all positions in this section would enter profit, creating a motivation for short-term funds to cash out. The peak concentration of long-term holder chips also lies between $81,000 and $82,000, which includes chips that were passively held after being trapped, making it easy for these holders to exit when prices approach their costs. The group of whales holding over 100,000 coins is also concentrated in the $78,000 to $82,000 range, aside from two clusters around the $40,000 mark.
Glassnode states that Bitcoin is currently constrained by the supply pressure of long-term holders around the $83,000 to $85,000 mark. If it breaks below this newly formed chip concentration zone, the key observation point will be $75,000, with further declines possibly returning to the accumulation zone around $60,000.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit has risen from about 47% at the end of June to approximately 69%, with the 90-day change also swiftly turning positive from -19% at the beginning of August to about 41%, marking one of the fastest recoveries in Bitcoin's history.
The regulatory calendar for next week coincides with the interest rate meeting. Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl indicated that the U.S. CLARITY Act, aimed at establishing comprehensive rules for the crypto market, will face a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15, requiring 60 votes for support. The Republican Party currently holds 53 seats, so bipartisan cooperation from the Democrats is needed to advance. Even if the bill does not pass this year, the regulatory framework for stablecoins, token issuance, tokenized securities, and perpetual futures will continue to become clearer.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong noted that achieving $400,000 for Bitcoin by 2030 remains a reasonable goal, and he personally believes that the bottom of this cycle may have already emerged. He also stated that regardless of the voting results on September 15, the SEC and CFTC are prepared to advance rules based on existing authority, and the industry may still gain new regulatory clarity before and after the vote.
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