Launched just two months ago, stock tokens increased by 14 times, and DEX trading volume rose to second place.

Written by: Rhythm

TL;DR

• Robinhood Chain has been live for over two months, with a TVL reaching approximately $1.5 billion, a cumulative DEX trading volume exceeding $50 billion, and processing over 550 million transactions.
• In the past 15 days, Robinhood Chain generated approximately $33 million in fees, ranking first among all blockchains; HOOD retained about 90% of it, and on-chain activities are transforming into high-margin revenue.
• Stock tokens have become a new source of growth, with the value of related assets increasing approximately 14 times over two months, the number of holding addresses increasing to 107,000, and the transfer market share rising to about 32%.
• The on-chain transaction structure is improving, with the share of Meme coins dropping from nearly 100% in the early days to about 36%, while the trading share of stock tokens has risen to about 27%.
• Bernstein maintains HOOD's "outperform" rating and a target price of $160, which represents about a 31% potential upside from the stock price at the time of the report's release.

From Retail Broker to 24/7 Exchange

Robinhood is attempting to execute a new identity transformation.

In the past, Robinhood primarily monetized through order flow payments, stock and options trading, cryptocurrency operations, and interest income; after launching Robinhood Chain, the company began to extend its business into a more foundational financial infrastructure, including asset issuance, trading, settlement, and on-chain revenue sharing.

Robinhood Chain went live on July 1, 2026, as a Layer 2 network based on Arbitrum technology, compatible with Ethereum, primarily used for tokenized trading of stocks, ETFs, commodities, stablecoins, and other real-world assets. Users can trade related assets around the clock through the Robinhood wallet and can also use it for on-chain lending, liquidity pools, and collateral.

In just over two months since its launch, the chain has accumulated approximately $1.5 billion in total locked value (TVL), over $50 billion in cumulative spot DEX trading volume, about $7 billion in perpetual contract trading volume, and over 550 million on-chain transactions. According to data from August, its transaction count ranks third among all blockchains, behind only Solana and BNB Chain.

Total Locked Value Across Blockchains

Bernstein believes this data indicates that Robinhood Chain has initially established an on-chain financial system covering stablecoins, spot trading, perpetual contracts, lending, and asset management. More crucially for Robinhood, these activities have begun to convert into actual revenue.

Top Fees for the Past 15 Days, HOOD Retaining About 90% of Revenue

As of the report's statistical period, Robinhood Chain has generated approximately $39 million in net fees. Fees in July were about $3.6 million, rising to about $6.7 million in August, and reaching about $29 million in just the first six days of September, with significant growth seen at the end of August.

Daily Fee Revenue of Robinhood Chain

In the past 15 days, Robinhood Chain generated about $33 million in fees, surpassing Solana's $11 million, BNB Chain's $9 million, and Ethereum's $6 million, temporarily ranking first among all blockchains.

Fee Comparison Among Blockchains in the Past 15 Days

According to the revenue sharing arrangement between Robinhood and the infrastructure provider, HOOD retains about 90% of the on-chain fees, with Arbitrum receiving about 10%, while the data publishing cost paid to the Ethereum mainnet is less than 1%. Since blockchain operations do not require significant manpower and operational investments to scale with trading volume, the additional revenue can theoretically convert directly into profits.

This also explains why Bernstein summarized the report title as: "The exchange has now become a 24/7 running chain, and this chain is becoming a source of profit."

Bernstein previously anticipated that Robinhood Chain would contribute about $160 million in fee revenue by 2028. In contrast, the $33 million in fees generated in the last 15 days, if annualized simply, already far exceeds this forecast. However, the recent fee growth is closely related to a rapid increase in market trading enthusiasm, making it currently unsuitable to extrapolate short-term revenue directly to future years.

Stock Tokens Increased by 14 Times Over Two Months

Another main line of growth for Robinhood Chain comes from stock tokens.

Over the past two months, the value of tokenized stocks and ETFs on the chain has grown from approximately $10 million to about $140 million, an increase of about 14 times. If including ETFs, commodities, and U.S. Treasury bonds, the total value of on-chain tokenized assets is approximately $150 million, with stocks accounting for about 76%, ETFs about 17%, and commodities about 6%.

Value of Tokenized Stocks by Blockchain

The number of addresses holding stock tokens valued at over $1 has also increased from about 35,000 at the end of August to 107,000. More notably, while the value of tokenized stocks held on Robinhood Chain accounts for only about 5% of the entire market, their weekly transfer value share has reached approximately 32%, second only to BNB Chain's 53%.

Market Share of Tokenized Stock Transfer Value

The gap between value share and transfer share indicates that the turnover rate of stock tokens on Robinhood Chain is significantly higher than on other networks. These assets are not just passively held by users; they are frequently utilized for DEX trading, liquidity pools, lending, and collateral.

Robinhood adopts a third-party tokenization model: the company buys and holds the underlying stocks, then issues on-chain tokens linked to the economic performance of these stocks. The related products are issued by Robinhood Assets Jersey Limited and are available in over 120 countries and regions, but are not currently available to U.S. investors.

Holders of stock tokens gain economic exposure to the underlying stocks, not traditional equity ownership. They are not registered shareholders of the underlying company and do not have direct voting rights, participation in company actions, or traditional shareholder protections. Robinhood will pass dividends to token holders, but dividends will automatically be used to purchase more underlying stocks rather than paid out in cash.

This structure allows stocks to enter the DeFi ecosystem, while also meaning that their regulatory positioning and investor rights differ significantly from those of directly held stocks.

Meme Coins Provide Initial Liquidity for Stock Tokens

At the initial launch of Robinhood Chain, native Meme coin trading pairs accounted for nearly 100% of total trading volume. However, as trading in stock tokens, ETH, and stablecoins increased, the on-chain trading structure is gradually diversifying.

By early September, Meme coins and ETH-USD trading pairs each accounted for over 30% of total trading volume, with stock token trading also rising to nearly 20% to just under 30%. According to the report's data, Meme coins, ETH-USD, and stock token trading pairs account for approximately 36%, 36%, and 27%, respectively.

Composition of Spot DEX Trading Volume on Robinhood Chain

Bernstein noticed that the trading of Meme coins and stock tokens is not two completely separate markets.

Uniswap is the main automated market maker on Robinhood Chain, contributing approximately 92% of DEX trading volume in August. Liquidity providers can establish trading pools between Meme coins and stock tokens on Uniswap. When the trading demand for one asset increases, the liquidity, arbitrage, and trading demand for the other asset may also increase.

This has formed a relatively unique growth mechanism for Robinhood Chain: Meme coins attract traders and speculative funds, while stock tokens guide some on-chain liquidity towards real-world assets. Stocks, commodities, real estate, stablecoins, foreign exchange, and even private equity may be included in this 24/7 trading system in the future.

However, this mechanism also means that recent growth is still heavily cyclical. If interest in Meme coins declines, whether stock tokens can maintain trading volumes through sustainable allocations, collateral, and lending demand still requires further observation.

Main On-Chain Funds Flowing to Lending and Yield Products

Robinhood Chain's TVL has increased from about $51 million in early July to $1.5 billion, ranking seventh among major blockchains. In terms of funding structure, this chain does not rely entirely on spot trading; lending and asset management together account for over 60% of TVL, while spot DEX accounts for about 20%, with the remaining funds distributed across real-world assets and perpetual contract protocols.

Robinhood Chain's TVL by Protocol Type

Morpho, Ethena, and Uniswap are currently the main protocols. The on-chain supply of stablecoins has approached $1 billion, with USDG accounting for about 66% and USDe about 33%.

This indicates that Robinhood is attempting to establish a relatively complete on-chain capital cycle: users transfer funds into stablecoins and yield products, obtain liquidity through lending, and then use stock tokens and other assets for DEX trading or as collateral.

Compared to relying solely on transaction fees, this model has a greater opportunity to increase the retention rates of users, assets, and liquidity. However, the current stablecoin supply is highly concentrated in two assets, and TVL is primarily contributed by a few protocols. Concentration of capital, declining incentives, and the risks of stablecoin and lending protocols themselves could all impact future growth.

The Valuation Logic Behind the $160 Target Price

Bernstein maintains Robinhood's "outperform" rating with a target price of $160. Compared to the report's adopted closing price of $122.11, this corresponds to about a 31% potential upside.

The firm expects Robinhood's revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and earnings per share compound growth rate to reach approximately 32%, 47%, and 49% respectively between 2026 and 2028. Its target price is based on an estimated earnings per share of $4.56 in 2028, giving a 35 times forward price-to-earnings ratio.

Bernstein estimates that Robinhood's revenue will grow from $4.473 billion in 2025 to $7.230 billion in 2027, adjusted EBITDA will increase from $2.640 billion to $5.161 billion, and earnings per share will rise from $2.12 to $3.35.

Currently, Robinhood Chain's projected fee revenue of $160 million in 2028 is still not decisive relative to the company's overall revenue. Its more important valuation significance lies in the fact that Robinhood has begun to control trading, asset issuance, settlement, and on-chain fee revenue, with its business model extending further from retail trading entry towards financial infrastructure.

What needs to be observed next is how much of the current fee growth comes from sustainable stock tokens, lending, and stablecoin demand, versus how much comes from short-term Meme coin speculation. The cross-border sale of stock tokens, investor rights, and regulatory positioning may also become important variables in the process of business expansion.

In addition, some portions of the original report and charts have discrepancies regarding the proportion of stock tokens, the trading volume of perpetual contracts, and specific statistical dates. Therefore, it is more suitable to use this data to observe the growth direction of Robinhood Chain rather than to make overly precise inferences about individual values.

Bernstein's core judgment is that Robinhood Chain has initially proven its ability to attract assets, capital, and trading simultaneously and convert on-chain activities into high-margin revenue. If stock tokens can ultimately generate sustainable trading and collateral demand beyond speculative enthusiasm, Robinhood's role will not be limited to that of a retail broker, but may further approach that of a 24/7 global asset trading platform.