Author: Glassnode

Translator: Jiahua, ChainCatcher

Core Summary

Bitcoin has rebounded to the edge of the resistance range, with cost basis data, liquidation charts, and institutional break-even lines all pointing to the same resistance level. However, as the price approaches this range, selling pressure is at its lowest level this year. Current actual inflation data is at a two-year low, while yields are at a peak for this cycle. From a macro perspective, the reasons for not raising interest rates clearly outweigh the reasons for raising them.

• Bitcoin has risen 23% over the past 21 trading days, while the stock market has basically remained flat during the same period, but is still down 10% year-to-date.
• The core inflation rate has dropped to a two-year low of 2.5%, while inflation expectations remain at 3.6%, creating the largest gap between the two in three years.
• The cost basis of long-term holders, liquidation distribution, and ETF break-even lines all point to a resistance area of $83,000 to $86,000; the spot price once came within just 1.5% of the lower edge of that range.
• As Bitcoin approaches the high point of the range, the selling speed is less than half of August's peak, and long-term holders have also not participated in the selling during this round of growth.
• Bottom indicators have shown a clear resonance for several months and have essentially exited extreme weakness; altcoins have also not taken market share from Bitcoin as they did before the previous cycle peak.

Underperforming Bitcoin is Catching Up

Recapturing Ground from the Bottom

In the past 21 trading days, Bitcoin has risen 23%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have remained mostly flat, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index experiencing a slight decline. Among the seven asset classes we track, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset during this period.

However, looking year-to-date, the situation is quite the opposite. Bitcoin is still down 10% from the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 is up 13%, and this year's leading crude oil has far outperformed both.

Bitcoin spent the entire summer at the bottom of this performance list, only recently starting to close the gap with other assets. The strong performance over the past month has only recovered part of the losses from the first half of the year.

Market Expectations Outpacing Data

This round of Bitcoin's rebound occurs in an overall still-tight bond market environment. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds closed at 4.8%, matching a two-year high; the 2-year Treasury yield is about 4.38%, roughly 63 basis points higher than the 3.75% federal funds target rate. The bond market is betting that monetary policy may further tighten.

However, the actual inflation data does not support this judgment.

The U.S. core inflation rate has dropped to 2.5%, a two-year low, while U.S. inflation expectations remain at 3.6%. The gap between them has reached a three-year high.

Core inflation continues to cool, while Treasury yields are at cycle highs, making it increasingly difficult to explain the Fed's interest rate hikes. The August CPI data to be released on September 11, 2026, and the FOMC rate decision on September 16, will directly test this contradiction.

If the core inflation rate moves closer to the 3.6% inflation expectation, the rationale for tightening policy further will strengthen; if core inflation remains at current low levels, it would indicate that the rise in bond yields may have outpaced economic data.

Resistance Pointing to the Same Range from Multiple Angles

Price Stops Below the Resistance Range

Last week's report set the upper resistance range for Bitcoin at $83,000 to $86,000. This round of rebound has tested this judgment but has not truly touched this range.

On September 3, 2026, Bitcoin’s spot price reached a new high above August but ultimately stopped 1.5% below the lower edge of the resistance range, then fluctuated narrowly below $80,000.

Long-term holder cost basis distribution explains why this resistance range is important.

About 1.07 million BTC have a cost basis located between $83,000 and $86,000, most of which belong to long-term holders, with the densest cost range concentrated around $85,000. This portion of the chips has barely moved in the past 30 days.

What has truly changed is the supply structure below. Chips between $76,000 and $82,000 are mainly held by recent buyers, and their quantity is continuously increasing; the cumulative chips in the $62,000 to $65,000 range have decreased, indicating that some BTC purchased previously at this level has been flipped.

The market is rebuilding support just below the spot price, but the upper resistance range has still not been digested.

Liquidation Distribution Also Points to the Same Resistance Area

The derivatives market suggests the same outcome.

From the Bitcoin futures liquidation heatmap, the short liquidation area between $82,000 and $86,000 has expanded by 21% since the short-squeeze on August 19; meanwhile, the overall scale of the liquidation map has shrunk to about one-third.

Currently, the $82,000 to $86,000 range concentrates some of the largest liquidation volumes recorded since this model started tracking.

As prices rise, they enter a continuously expanding short liquidation area, ultimately stopping just below it. Below the current price, a long liquidation area remains between $60,000 and $63,000, continuing to define the market range from below.

If prices continue to break above $86,000, the most concentrated short liquidation liquidity in the market will be triggered; if they drop below $63,000, it could begin to impact the long positions below.

Institutional Break-even Lines Also Near $86,000

The third independent indicator also points to the same location.

According to U.S. spot ETF holding data, based on the BTC cost basis corresponding to shares issued since the ETF's inception, its break-even point is about $86,000.

In the past 228 trading days, the BTC holdings corresponding to this ETF have remained below the break-even line. Its book loss reached approximately $18 billion on February 5, 2026; as Bitcoin has rebounded, losses have narrowed to about $3.9 billion. This is the closest this ETF portfolio has been to break-even since January.

The break-even point for corporate treasury holdings is about $80,500, slightly below the current price.

The five cost basis models we track are all above Bitcoin's spot price, ranging from $76,600 for the True Market Mean up to $86,000 for the ETF break-even point.

The upper resistance is not a single technical line but a set of real existing cost basis ranges. If Bitcoin reclaims $86,000, the largest institutional holders will achieve overall profitability for the first time this year.

Selling Pressure is Weakening

The Closer to the Resistance Area, the Limited the Selling Pressure

As Bitcoin approaches the resistance range, the market has not seen any significant new supply.

The seller risk ratio measures the proportion of realized profits and losses relative to realized market value. The 7-day average of this indicator has currently dropped to 7 basis points daily, less than half of August's peak of 16 basis points.

During the market peaks in July and October 2025, this indicator rose to 35 basis points and 23 basis points, respectively. Over the past year, only a few trading days have recorded values below the current level.

The proportion of realized profit contributed by long-term holders has also decreased from 88% at the August peak to 47%. The realized profit peak on September 3 was less than half of the August peak.

This month's main sellers are recent buyers, and long-term holders have not significantly realized profits, while the selling strength of short-term holders is also weakening.

If this indicator continues to rise and breaks back above 16 basis points, it would mean that selling pressure has returned to near August peaks. Until then, the selling power in the spot market remains limited.

The Market is Between Bottom Repair and Top Confirmation

Bottom Indicators Have Exited Extreme Weakness Range

In the Market Compass indicator dashboard, among the 45 cyclical indicators tracked, those in the extreme weakness range peaked at 82% for the week ending June 29, 2026, remaining above the long-term median for 41 consecutive weeks.

This was the strongest bottom signal resonance observed during this cycle.

As Bitcoin rises and market valuations gradually repair, the proportion of indicators in the extreme weakness range has dropped to 2%, effectively relieving the bottom signal.

However, the market has not moved towards another extreme. Currently, three-quarters of the indicators are below their respective historical midpoint, and there have been no instances in the past 43 weeks where more than half of the indicators have been above 50.

Bitcoin has exited the value range, but has not yet entered an obviously overvalued zone. If more than half of the indicators break above 50, it will serve as a clearer confirmation signal for a shift in the market's cyclical position.

Altcoins Have Not Yet Shown Abnormal Rotation

In the past month, the total market capitalization of altcoins has increased by 21%. However, what needs to be observed is not whether altcoins are rising, but whether their rise relative to the entire crypto market is strong enough and whether they have begun to take market share from Bitcoin.

Among the four price peaks of Bitcoin marked in the charts, three peaks occurred before which the market share occupied by altcoins over the past 90 days significantly increased, by at least 2.8 percentage points. The only exception is the peak in December 2017.

Currently, the proportion of altcoins in the total market cap of BTC and altcoins has actually decreased by 0.9 percentage points over the past 90 days.

Although altcoins have risen in value in dollars, they have not outperformed Bitcoin. Various crypto assets have risen almost simultaneously, with the largest market cap coins still leading the way.

Before a cycle peak truly forms, a clear capital rotation usually occurs: funds rapidly flow from Bitcoin to riskier altcoins, and the market cap growth rate of altcoins exceeds that of Bitcoin itself.

This stage has not yet appeared. If in the next 90 days the market share of altcoins increases by 2.8 percentage points or more while Bitcoin approaches historical highs, it would constitute a warning similar to prior cycle peaks. Currently, neither of these conditions has been met.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is consolidating below the resistance range of $83,000 to $86,000, while the long-term holder cost, liquidation distribution, and ETF break-even lines all direct resistance to the same range.

The current market remains in a fluctuating state where support has been repaired but the top has not yet broken through.

Compared to August, the most noticeable change in this round of action is the significant reduction in selling pressure: the seller risk ratio is less than half of August's peak, and long-term holders have not realized large profits, but the upper short liquidation liquidity continues to increase.

If Bitcoin can consistently stay above $86,000 while the seller risk ratio remains low, it indicates that the market has digested the selling pressure above.

Conversely, if the seller risk ratio breaks back above 16 basis points or the price drops below the support range of $62,000 to $65,000, the current judgment will become invalid.

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