Written by: Rita

Robinhood Chain launched on July 1, with trading fees ranked first among all blockchains over the past 15 days, approximately $33 million, with Robinhood retaining about 90% of the revenue. The market share of tokenized stock trading has risen from 0.5% to 5%, with cumulative on-chain transaction volume exceeding $50 billion. On September 8, Bernstein released a research report on Robinhood, noting that the blockchain business is becoming a new high-profit growth engine for the company.

Robinhood Chain is a 24/7 operational blockchain network where retail investors can trade stock tokens, crypto tokens, lend assets, and earn yields on stablecoins and other real-world assets. Bernstein maintains an outperform rating, with a target price of $160, implying about 31% upside potential.

On-chain Data: Breaking into the Top Five in Two Months

Robinhood Chain has been online for over two months, with a total locked value of approximately $1.5 billion, cumulative DEX transaction volume exceeding $50 billion, cumulative perpetual futures trading volume around $7 billion, transaction counts exceeding 550 million, and cumulative on-chain fees of approximately $39 million. Over the past 15 days, this chain ranked first in fee revenue and second in spot DEX trading volume.

Fee revenue recently saw a notable turning point. Monthly fee revenue was about $3.6 million in July, about $6.7 million in August, and generated approximately $29 million in the first six days of September. Over the past 15 days, Robinhood Chain's fee revenue was about $33 million, far exceeding Solana's approximately $11 million, BSC's approximately $9 million, and Ethereum's approximately $6 million.

The composition of DEX trading volume is changing. At the beginning of August, meme coin pairs accounted for about 70%, ETH-USD pairs about 25%, and stock token pairs about 6%. By early September, ETH-USD had about 36%, meme coins about 36%, and Robinhood stock token pairs increased to about 27%. Bernstein noted that meme coin speculation drives demand for stock tokens, with both paired in Uniswap's automatic market-making pools, creating a positive feedback loop. Stock tokens maintain a 1:1 pegged relationship with real stocks, supported by real stocks held in custody.

Tokenized Stocks: Market Share Rises from 0.5% to 5%

Robinhood's tokenized stocks use a third-party tokenization model, purchasing the underlying stocks, custodying them, and issuing blockchain tokens. Tokens act as debt securities, tracking the economic performance of the underlying stocks, providing economic exposure rather than ownership. Holders do not enjoy shareholder rights such as voting rights, but Robinhood automatically reinvests dividends into more underlying stocks, enabling each token to represent more than one share over time.

The market capitalization of tokenized stocks has increased from about $10 million to about $140 million, with Robinhood Chain's share of the total value of tokenized stocks rising from about 0.5% to about 5%. Including ETFs, commodities, and U.S. Treasury bonds, the total value of tokenized assets on Robinhood Chain is approximately $150 million, with stocks accounting for about 76%, ETFs about 17%, and commodities about 6%.

The number of addresses holding tokenized stocks has increased from about 35,000 at the end of August to around 107,000. Weekly trading value of tokenized stocks ranges from approximately $4 to $6 billion, with Robinhood Chain accounting for about 32%, second only to BNB Chain's 53%. The gap between the 5% value share and over 30% trading share indicates that stock tokens on Robinhood Chain are actively traded, consistent with the usage of tokens for meme coin trading and as collateral on DEX.

Stablecoins and Perpetual Futures Both Soar

The supply of stablecoins on Robinhood Chain has reached about $1 billion, mainly concentrated in two assets, with Global Dollar (USDG) accounting for about 66% and Ethena's USDe accounting for about 33%. Cumulative perpetual futures trading volume is about $7 billion, with August trading volume approximately $6.7 billion (only about $300 million in July), mainly driven by the decentralized exchange Lighter that launched at the same time.

Financial Impact: High-Margin Incremental Revenue

The daily trading fees for Robinhood Chain are approximately $2 to $4 million, averaging about $2.2 million per day over the past 15 days, annualized at about $1.2 billion. Robinhood retains about 90% of the revenue, sharing 10% with Arbitrum (the technology provider) and paying less than 1% in data fees to the Ethereum mainnet. Bernstein's current forecasts include about $160 million in on-chain fee revenue by 2028, with actual data far exceeding model assumptions.

Blockchain revenue is essentially high-margin revenue, directly converting into earnings per share. Bernstein expects a compound annual growth rate of 32% in revenue from 2026 to 2028, and a 49% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share, with earnings per share expected to be about $4.56 in 2028, corresponding to a target price of $160.

Valuation and Risks

Robinhood's current stock price is about $122, with Bernstein's target price at $160, implying about 31% upside potential. The target price is based on a 35 times forward price-to-earnings ratio, corresponding to earnings per share of $4.56 in 2028.

Risks include regulatory risks, as the SEC has historically adopted a strict stance on crypto trading businesses. If certain tokens are deemed to be securities, it could affect Robinhood's crypto trading business. Digital assets, as an emerging asset class, have limited historical pricing and are still in the early stage.

Disclaimer

This article is a compilation and interpretation of third-party brokerage research reports (Bernstein, September 8, 2026) by Chao Xiang Research, combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments quoted in the text represent the views of the analysts from that brokerage and do not represent the views of Chao Xiang Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.

The market has risks, and decisions should be made independently. This article should not serve as the basis for buying or selling any securities.