Written by: Xiao Bing

Strive (ASST) reached a share price of $26.84 during trading on September 3, just 0.6% away from $27.

Behind that 0.6% lies a set of warrants with an exercise price of about $27, expiring in mid-October. If ASST crosses $27, the holders of these warrants will be motivated to exercise them, potentially flooding the company with about $700 million in cash. Matt Cole mentioned that this $700 million is backed by approximately $700 million in digital credit financing capacity. A potential purchasing power of $1.4 billion is locked behind that price level.

First, let's see what Strive has done. SEC documents show that the company bought an additional 1,800 BTC between August 24 and 28, at an average price of about $79,431, bringing its total holdings to 23,156 BTC. According to Bitcoin Treasuries rankings, Strive currently ranks fifth globally, behind Strategy (843,775 BTC), Twenty One Capital (43,514 BTC), Metaplanet (about 43,000 BTC), and MARA Holdings (about 36,300 BTC).

CEO Matt Cole said something that excited the market on the One Share podcast on September 3: Strive could potentially become the second-largest public company holder of Bitcoin by the end of 2026.

What truly deserves analysis is how Cole's designed capital structure makes this ambition mathematically possible.

Warrant Flywheel

The stock price of a public company is usually seen as a reflection of operational results, but Strive's logic is exactly the opposite.

Its core financing mechanism is a self-reinforcing cycle: ASST stock price approaches $27 → warrant holders choose to exercise → company receives cash → cash buys BTC → BTC holdings and market ranking increase → market re-prices its BTC reserves and financing capacity → stock price rises further → more warrants are exercised.

This is Strive's capital structure diagram. Cole characterized this gamble as "shorts versus warrant holders" in the podcast and was unapologetic about his position: he hopes warrants are exercised, not allowed to expire. Considering that the current short ratio of ASST is about 30% of shares outstanding, the intensity of this gamble could heat up sharply in the next six weeks.

This mechanism forms an interesting contrast to Strategy (MicroStrategy)'s path.

Strategy relies on convertible bonds and ATM stock issuance. Convertible bonds have expiration dates, conversion prices, and interest costs; if Bitcoin crashes, the company faces payout pressure when the bonds mature. The scale of Strategy (843,775 BTC) provides a buffer of systemic significance, but its financing structure is embedded with term risks.

Strive has taken a completely different route. Its capital structure comprises only two types of securities: common stock ASST and perpetual preferred stock SATA. No convertible bonds, no senior debt, no expiration dates.

SATA trades at a $100 par value on Nasdaq, with an annualized dividend yield of 13%, accumulated and distributed daily starting June 16, 2026, becoming the first U.S. listed security to offer daily cash dividends. When the market price of SATA exceeds the par value, the company issues new stock through an ATM plan, with the funds directly used to purchase Bitcoin.

The two sides of the transaction are clear: SATA investors receive daily cash returns of 13% annualized, while Strive obtains perpetual capital without an expiration date. Cole has fully transplanted his 15 years of experience managing a $70 billion fixed-income portfolio at CalPERS into this structure.

The key difference lies in the path of risk transmission. Holders of Strategy's convertible bonds have the right to demand cash repayment of principal at maturity, which creates liquidity pressure for the company during Bitcoin downcycles. Strive's perpetual preferred shares have no expiration date and no forced redemption clauses; at worst, the board can adjust the dividend rate. The repayment pressure shifts from "must pay back by a certain day" to "pay a little interest every day."

The Math Problem from Fifth to Second

23,156 BTC is 20,358 BTC short of the second-place Twenty One Capital's 43,514 BTC.

At the current average price of about $80,000, closing this gap requires about $1.6 billion. The $1.4 billion potential buying ability ($700 million from warrant exercise + $700 million digital credit) is mathematically close. There are 17 weeks left until 2026, requiring an average of about 1,200 BTC purchases per week. Strive purchased 3,156 BTC throughout August, averaging about 790 BTC per week.

Cole did not provide a roadmap to reach second place; he simply showcased the capital tools to get there. This itself is a signal: in the competition for BTC treasury companies, the scale of the arsenal matters more than the current holdings.

However, this flywheel has a visibly weak point.

If ASST cannot stabilize above $27 before mid-October, the $700 million worth of warrants will expire worthless. Without warrant exercise, there will be no cash inflow. Without cash inflow, there will be no next round of large-scale purchases. Without large-scale purchasing, the ranking narrative collapses and the stock price loses its narrative support. When the flywheel reverses direction, it turns just as quickly.

Cole clearly understands this. He used a phrase on the podcast to describe the outcome if the warrants are successfully exercised: "electric finish." To translate this using a trader's intuition: he is sketching a bullish options payoff curve for the market. Below $27, Strive can survive but won't leap; above $27, everything accelerates.

30% Short vs. $700 Million Exercise: Six-Week Countdown

Currently, about 30% of ASST's outstanding shares are borrowed for short selling, a level that is extreme in the open market.

The logic of short sellers is easy to understand: Strive has no substantial operating business, and its holdings of 23,156 BTC represent about $1.85 billion in market value, most of which is the value of Bitcoin itself. The stock price premium depends on the market's confidence in its ongoing financing capability. Once Bitcoin’s price significantly declines or the warrants expire without being exercised, that confidence can evaporate quickly.

The logic of bulls is equally clear: if ASST breaks above $27 and maintains that level within six weeks, the $700 million warrant exercise will constitute a passive buying event for BTC. Short sellers will need to borrow more shares to maintain their positions, while warrant exercise will release a large number of newly circulating shares. The collision of these two forces may create severe price volatility.

This is not a trade requiring guesses about fundamentals; it is a structural game with clear trigger conditions and a time window. Mid-October is the date the answers will be revealed.

For the entire BTC treasury track, Strive's case reveals a fact that the capital markets are rapidly learning: in this game, innovative financing structures are much more important than price predictions.

Strategy pioneered the paradigm with convertible bonds, and Strive has pushed that paradigm to a more extreme version with perpetual preferred shares and warrant flywheels. The next direction of evolution depends on how much capital is willing to bet on the statement "stock price is a financing tool, not a result."