Written by: Rita

Goldman Sachs updated its U.S. high-conviction list in September, adding Vertex Pharmaceuticals and removing Interactive Brokers Group, maintaining a total of 23 stocks.

On September 1, Goldman Sachs released its monthly report indicating that all gains in U.S. stocks in August were concentrated in the first two trading days of the month, as large tech stocks continued to meet market expectations. After that, the market entered a summer oscillation phase, with unclear direction for risk assets; even Nvidia's strong performance failed to break the stalemate. The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly by 9 basis points from the beginning of the month, Brent crude oil remained basically flat, while gold, silver, and Bitcoin rose by 9%, 22%, and 24%, respectively. Goldman Sachs believes the market is in a catalyst vacuum period, with real opportunities hidden in companies undergoing substantial changes that may set a new direction for the fourth quarter.

Vertex Added: Five Billion Dollar Opportunities Build Pipeline Value

Vertex is the highlight of this month's list. Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter believes this large biotech company is advancing five potential billion-dollar commercial opportunities.

Cystic fibrosis is Vertex's traditional area of strength, as the company continues to undertake a series of innovations to maintain competitive barriers. In the pain domain, Journavex shows strong commercial momentum in acute pain, and the Phase III data for diabetic peripheral neuropathy are expected to be released after the second quarter of 2027. In the kidney disease area, several pipeline assets are progressing, with mid-line Phase III data for inaxaplin in APOL1-mediated kidney disease expected to be released in early 2027. Richter is optimistic about the pre-launch prospects of the best-in-class drug povetacicept in IgA nephropathy, with a PDUFA date of November 30. In hematology, the gene editing therapy Casgevy, developed in collaboration with CRISPR, is also in place.

Vertex plans to acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, establishing a fifth commercial pillar in the endocrine field. Richter believes that the market's current peak sales expectations for povetacicept in IgAN ($3.2 billion) are far lower than Goldman Sachs' $5.8 billion, and the peak sales expectations for Journax in acute pain ($2.3 billion) are also below Goldman Sachs' $3.9 billion. The market has yet to assign pipeline value to inaxaplin, DPN indications, and earlier-stage projects, and this potential has not been fully priced in.

Three Stocks That Outperformed

Estée Lauder rose 5.3% in August. Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog raised EBIT expectations for 2027 to 2029 by about 4% following strong fourth-quarter performance, and increased the target price by $12 to $112. Organic sales growth was 5%, nearly 200 basis points above market consensus, with the fragrance and skincare segments growing by 10% and 7%, respectively.

DoorDash rose 18.1%. Analyst Eric Sheridan reaffirmed a buy rating following strong second-quarter performance, focusing on three positive signals: improvement in overall unit economics, management's indication that grocery and retail operations are expected to achieve positive gross profit growth in the second half of 2026; an increase in DashPass paid conversion rates; and continuous growth in overall order value from grocery and retail exceeding the platform average.

TPG rose. This alternative asset management company reported strong second-quarter performance, and analyst Alex Blostein raised his FRE/EPS expectations to about 10% above market consensus. Four key drivers are resonating: accelerated fundraising breadth, resilient investment performance (especially in private equity), improved credit deployment opportunities, and accelerated trading activity. Blostein expects management fee growth to exceed 20% in both 2026 and 2027, making TPG one of the fastest-growing companies in its alternative asset management coverage.

Five Stocks Under Pressure

Viking Holdings fell 17.5%. Analyst Lizzie Dove pointed out that low water levels in Europe are affecting travel and triggering customer credit limits, making it difficult to eliminate negative sentiment in the short term. However, Dove believes the fundamentals remain strong, with pricing better than expected and current risk-reward ratios being attractive.

Applied Materials fell 9.6%. Despite solid second-quarter performance and guidance above market consensus, the stock price remains under pressure. Analyst Jim Schneider pointed out that the issue lay in overly high market expectations, with fundamentals unchanged. Schneider believes that strong performance has laid the groundwork for the accelerated WFE growth in 2027, and Applied Materials will benefit from increased spending on DRAM and leading logic.

Loar Holdings, Celestica, and Delta Air Lines also experienced varying degrees of declines in August, with analysts maintaining buy ratings, believing short-term volatility does not change the long-term logic.

List Construction Follows a Bottom-Up Fundamental Logic

The Goldman Sachs high-conviction list is filtered by the Investment Review Committee from the recommendations of analysts, maintaining a scale of 20 to 25 stocks. The list does not express thematic or factor views and is based on bottom-up fundamental analysis. The 23 stocks cover multiple sectors, including consumer, finance, healthcare, industrials, natural resources, and technology, with each stock possessing three characteristics: high analyst conviction, differentiated views, and high risk-adjusted returns.

The addition of Vertex reflects pipeline value that the market has not fully priced in and an upcoming dense catalyst period. The removal of Interactive Brokers indicates that the list is a dynamically adjusted portfolio, rather than a static recommendation list.

Disclaimer

This article is a整理与解读 of third-party brokerage research reports (Goldman Sachs, September 1, 2026) from潮向研究, combined with整理 of public market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in this article are all the viewpoints of the brokerage analysts and only represent the stance of their respective institutions, not the views of潮向研究, and do not constitute any investment advice.

The market carries risks, and decision-making must be independent. This article should not be used as the basis for buying or selling any securities.