Written by: Rita

In the third quarter, memory prices continue to rise, but there is differentiation among categories.

On August 31, Goldman Sachs released a report tracking memory prices. TrendForce raised its forecast for 3Q26 PC DRAM price increase to 18% to 23%, while server DRAM remains at an increase of 13% to 18% and mobile DRAM's forecast was lowered to 8% to 13%. NAND's expectation of 20% basically aligns with Goldman Sachs' predictions. The common logic behind the price increases in various categories is that suppliers continue to shift capacity towards server DRAM and HBM, which compresses the supply for other categories. Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

PC DRAM Expectations Raised, DDR5 Discount Maintained at 6%

TrendForce has raised its forecast for 3Q26 PC DRAM price increase from 15% to 20% to 18% to 23%, slightly above Goldman Sachs' predicted 17% quarter-over-quarter growth. Data from the spot market in August showed that the prices of DDR4 8GB and DDR5 8GB increased by 2% to $142 and $133 respectively. The discount of DDR5 compared to DDR4 remains at 6%, unchanged from July.

The adjustment in PC DRAM reflects the resilience of downstream demand. The growth rate in the PC terminal market is moderate, and the demand for memory capacity from AI PCs is driving structural upgrades, with single machine capacity continuously rising. Goldman Sachs expects this trend to continue into the fourth quarter.

Server DRAM Pricing Remains Strong, DDR5 Premium Expands

Server DRAM is the most resilient category in pricing during the third quarter. TrendForce maintains its quarter-over-quarter growth forecast at 13% to 18%, which is basically consistent with Goldman Sachs' prediction of 18%.

The spot market in August validated this trend. The price of DDR4 64GB modules remained flat at $1295, while DDR5 64GB modules increased by 1% to $1500, with the premium of DDR5 over DDR4 expanding from 15% in July to 16%.

The demand from AI servers for high bandwidth and large-capacity memory continues to support DDR5 pricing. HBM capacity continues to occupy DRAM wafer factory capacity, making the supply tight for server DDR5 in the short term.

Mobile DRAM Expectations Lowered, Short-Term Inventory Pressure Evident

Mobile DRAM is the only category in the third quarter to see a downward adjustment in expectations. TrendForce has lowered its forecast for 3Q26 mobile DRAM price increase to 8% to 13%, slightly below Goldman Sachs' prediction of 14% quarter-over-quarter growth. TrendForce expects further slowing to 0% to 5% in 4Q26.

The reason for weakening demand comes from high inventory levels among customers. After stocking up in previous quarters, smartphone manufacturers' DRAM inventories have risen to high levels, reducing short-term purchasing momentum. TrendForce remains optimistic about the price outlook for 2027, with suppliers continuing to prioritize capacity allocation to server DRAM and HBM, restricting supply growth for mobile DRAM.

Goldman Sachs believes that the short-term weakness in mobile DRAM is a timing issue and does not indicate a trend reversal. Prices will still be strongly supported by supply side factors in 2027.

NAND Expectations Mostly Align, Mobile Sector Remains Main Demand Source

Mobile NAND's price forecast for the third quarter shows a quarter-over-quarter increase of 20%, which is largely consistent with Goldman Sachs' prediction of a 15% to 20% overall NAND increase. The contract price for eMMC/UFS 256GB in 3Q26 has already risen by about 20%.

The supply and demand pattern of NAND is similar to that of DRAM, with suppliers also shifting capacity allocation towards high-value products, thereby limiting supply growth for mobile NAND. NAND demand is more elastic, and fluctuations in the consumer electronics market will directly impact price trends. Goldman Sachs expects a narrowing of NAND price increases in the fourth quarter.

The fundamentals for memory price increases have not loosened, and the suppliers' capacity allocation strategy is a decisive factor. The short-term inventory adjustment for mobile DRAM is merely a timing issue, not indicative of a demand trend reversal. As global leaders in memory, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix remain the main beneficiaries of this trend.

Disclaimer

This article is a整理与解读 of third-party brokerage research reports (Goldman Sachs, August 31, 2026) by潮向研究, combined with整理 of public market information. The ratings, target prices, profit forecasts, and related judgments cited in this article are the views of the analysts at that brokerage, representing their institution's position, and do not represent the views of潮向研究, nor do they constitute any investment advice.

The market has risks, and decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.