Author:Yang Chen, Long Yue

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk rarely shies away from making bold predictions about new technologies. His remarks at the G20 meeting of central bank governors and finance ministers in Asheville, North Carolina, were no exception.

Musk stated via video link at the summit:

"In fact, we have already seen, and will continue to see, significant productivity gains from artificial intelligence, while robotics will lead to a leap in productivity."

Musk added:

"To give everyone an intuitive sense of the scale, I believe AI could increase the global economy size by 20% to 30%, which is my rough estimate, meaning it could add about $20 trillion to $30 trillion each year."

He is most optimistic about robotics, predicting that within the next ten years, the number of humanoid robots worldwide will reach 1 billion.

"Moreover, the output of these robots will be at least five times that of humans. In other words, the productivity of these one billion humanoid robots will exceed the total of all humans."

At the same time, Musk called on regulators to encourage and embrace new technologies like AI, advocating that such technologies should be "presumed legal" rather than "presumed illegal."

AI Capability: Reaching "Stockfish Level" Within 12 to 18 Months

Musk provided a specific time frame for the enhancement of AI software capabilities. He stated that AI will soon reach what he describes as "Stockfish level" in software writing—Stockfish is a chess program that can easily defeat the world's top players and even run on phones to beat world champion Magnus Carlsen.

My prediction is that at some point next year, AI software will become so excellent that it will reach Stockfish level, meaning humans will not be able to compete with AI in software writing.

He further predicted that within 12 to 18 months, AI will become "extremely proficient" in all forms of digital software and digital tasks.

By the end of next year, AI will be able to complete all tasks in the digital realm, which means all work that does not require hands-on shaping of physical objects.

Humanoid Robots: Over 1 Billion in Ten Years, Output Exceeding Total Humanity

Musk provided a framework for analysis: the practicality of humanoid robots largely depends on the level of AI software, the level of AI chips in the robots, and the electromechanical flexibility (especially hand dexterity) – the product of these three factors. He pointed out that all three are currently improving exponentially.

Then, when you manufacture robots, the robots will start manufacturing robots, leading to a recursive effect. It starts off very slowly, but then it will grow at an explosive rate.

He further emphasized that the productivity of each robot is likely to be five times that of humans.

And each robot's productivity is likely to be five times that of humans, meaning that a decade from now, the productivity of humanoid robots... I think this is a conservative estimate, by the way, and this is a prediction I am willing to put a heavy bet on, that there will be at least one billion robots within ten years. Moreover, the output of these robots will be at least five times that of humans. In other words, the productivity of these one billion humanoid robots will exceed the total of all humans.

By layering robotics with AI, Musk believes that the total global economy could multiply, stating, "You could make the economy grow tenfold or even more."

Energy Crisis: AI Chips May Face a 15 GW Power Shortfall by 2027

Musk also warned about the energy bottleneck facing AI development, stating, "There is indeed a rather serious power crisis."

He cited consensus estimates from analysts, indicating that by 2027, AI chips will face a power shortfall of at least 15 GW. The reason is that the production rate of AI chips is growing by about 40% to 50% each year, while available electricity outside of China is only growing by about 10% to 20% per year, leading to a severe imbalance.

Clearly, things that grow faster will eventually overwhelm those that grow slower.

He revealed that several companies, including Google and Anthropic, have been renting computing power from SpaceX precisely because SpaceX has solved the power supply issues through its own power plants.