Written by: Trend Research

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks fell for the third consecutive trading day, with the S&P 500 down 0.71% at 7631.47 points, the Nasdaq down 1.03% at 26099.774 points, and the Dow down 0.79% at 52766.88 points. Geopolitical risks continue to dominate market sentiment, as the U.S. military strikes targets belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and Iran fires ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan, escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. WTI crude oil closed up 5.20% at $90.22 per barrel, and Brent crude oil closed up 4.60% at $94.65 per barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to about 4.80%, reaching a 19-month high. Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that if inflation does not sufficiently cool down, decisive interest rate hikes should be made. Dell saw an increase of over 10% in after-hours trading, significantly raising its full-year guidance.

U.S.-Iran Full-scale Clash, Oil Market Enters War Pricing Mode

On Tuesday, U.S. military forces launched a military strike against targets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, citing recent threats to commercial shipping and U.S. military safety in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard then fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. Marine Corps camp located in the Aqaba Gulf in Jordan, claiming to have destroyed multiple facilities and caused U.S. casualties. Iran also stated that it shot down a U.S. drone. Trump warned that if Iran retaliates, it will face a stronger military response.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate. Two oil tankers were attacked after leaving the strait. The U.S. is considering implementing "regular strikes" against Iran to ensure safe navigation in the strait. The Iranian Speaker firmly stated that the U.S. must not push for navigation along the southern route of the strait. Bessent mentioned that if an alternative route is completed, the strait could lose its strategic value within two years.

Oil prices surged violently. WTI crude oil futures closed up 5.20% at $90.22 per barrel, breaking through $90 for the first time in a month. Brent crude oil futures closed up 4.60% at $94.65 per barrel. Diesel crack spreads continued to widen, and concerns about energy supply disruptions are heating up.

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Hits 19-Month High, Barr Hints Hawkishly

U.S. Treasuries faced a new wave of selling. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to about 4.80%, increasing by about 5 basis points during the day, marking a new high since January 2025, a 19-month peak. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by about 6 basis points to about 4.40%. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield also increased.

Global sovereign debt yields set new highs since 2008. The U.S. debt burden has exceeded $40 trillion, and large tech companies are also heavily issuing bonds to finance AI, coupled with geopolitical conflicts driving up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns, putting multiple pressures on the U.S. Treasury market.

Federal Reserve officials continue to adopt a hawkish stance. Following Waller's Jackson Hole speech, Fed Governor Barr stated that if inflation does not sufficiently cool, the Fed should decisively raise interest rates. The market maintains a 60% pricing for a rate hike in September, with Barclays predicting rate hikes in both September and December.

The dollar index rebounded, approaching a two-week high; the yen fell below 160, dropping to its lowest point since the U.S. intervened in the foreign exchange market at the end of July; the offshore yuan fell below 6.72 during the day.

Dell Surges After Hours, AI Server Demand Validates Hardware Logic

On the company level, Dell stood out as the most impressive name in after-hours trading on Tuesday. Dell's second-quarter revenue hit a historical record, with AI server demand being the largest growth factor, and the full-year outlook significantly exceeded market expectations, rising over 10% in after-hours trading. Demand for AI hardware continues to accelerate, and Dell's earnings guidance offers new fundamental validation for the AI supply chain.

The chip sector fell overall on Tuesday, with the chip index down over 2%. Nvidia fell 1.5%, and Micron Technology dropped nearly 3%. The performance of storage chips was mixed, with Western Digital down nearly 2%.

The seven tech giants showed mixed results. On the first day of new CEO Ternus's tenure, Apple rebounded nearly 3%. Tesla fell over 3%. Google and Amazon dropped more than 2%. Microsoft slightly weakened.

NIO's Q2 earnings report displayed strong results, with a 69% year-over-year revenue increase, and gross margin rising to 18.4%. The Q3 revenue guidance is between $3.329 billion and $3.405 billion. Anthropic launched Fable 5.1, reducing prices in the "cache hit" portion by 75%, enhancing programming and research capabilities.

Gold Prices Fall for the Third Consecutive Day, Bitcoin Drops Below $78,000

Precious metals and cryptocurrencies are under pressure simultaneously. Gold prices fell for the third consecutive trading day, with intraday losses approaching 3%. COMEX gold futures closed down 1.88% at $4348 per ounce. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar exerted double pressure on gold.

Bitcoin dropped below $78,000 intraday, down more than 3% from its daily high. Ethereum also weakened, trading around $2400. Cryptocurrencies continue to adjust under the dual pressures of geopolitical risks and rising interest rates.

Attention Tonight

U.S. August ADP Employment Data. The ISM Manufacturing Index slightly declined on Tuesday and was below expectations but remains near a four-year high. The August ADP employment data will be released on Wednesday, and the market will use this to assess whether signs of loosening are appearing in the labor market. If the employment data weakens, it may alleviate rate hike expectations to some extent; if the data is strong, alongside rising oil prices and geopolitical risks, the dual pressures of rates and inflation will continue to suppress risk assets.