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Again, we have reached the end of the month, and the market trends of "golden September and silver October" have officially begun. Today, the Coin Victory Group will throw out some ideas and write a monthly and weekly market analysis, as well as a medium and long-term directional layout, to share with everyone. I hope it helps you; if you make money, remember to treat your brother to a meal. Hahaha, now let's get to the main dish！！！！！！！！！！（By the way, clicking the text above can redirect you to the video version of the article on Bilibili）

I. Bitcoin (BTC) Monthly and Weekly Trend Analysis and Trading Ideas

1. Monthly Trend Analysis

This month, Bitcoin closed with a solid bullish candle, starting from the bottom range of 62000, reaching a high of 78000 before closing, with a monthly increase of over 16000 points. The price successfully broke above the monthly moving average pressure and closed strongly, with overall bullish momentum showing strength, establishing a larger upward pattern.

From the monthly structure, it is highly likely that there will be new highs in the current market, but there is an upper limit to the upward space. The core trend can be divided into two structures:

The first is to rise then fall: the market directly rushes to test the high position, with significant short-term strong resistance concentrated around 83000, and the extreme pressure point at 88000. After reaching the high position, a deep correction will follow, and the bearish pullback cannot be underestimated.

The second is to adjust then rise: the market first retraces to key monthly support; if the support holds, it will rebound and rise again. Once this trend materializes, it is highly likely to confirm the start of a new bull market.

2. Weekly Trend Analysis

The weekly chart shows a bullish candle with an upper shadow, with prices closing near the upper Bollinger Band. The bullish foundation is solid, but last week failed to maintain strong upward momentum after surging through a large range; short-term upward momentum has diminished. The market is likely to consolidate sideways to rebuild short-term overbought indicators, with intensified bullish-bearish contention during this consolidation.

After the range repair is complete, the market will exhibit directional breakout, with ample space in both directions. Considering the larger monthly structure, I personally lean towards aretrace first, then a rise trend, fitting the overall bullish accumulation pattern.

3. Overall Market Summary

The core trading idea for larger trades focuses on buying on dips. Although the long-term support point is far from the current price, patience is needed to wait for opportunities. However, September is packed with significant fundamentals, and the market will not fall into a dull consolidation. The non-farm payroll data on September 4 and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 17 will each ignite the market, bringing considerable volatility; there’s no need to worry about missing entry opportunities, just be patient to lay low-position long positions.

Main and secondary trading ideas: buying on dips is the preferred trading plan; if the market surges first without breaking the previous high, one can consider positioning medium to long-term short positions, betting on a reversal and pullback from the high.

4. Bitcoin Medium to Long-Term Trading Strategy for September

① Scale-in long positions: Gradually buy in the 72200-69200 range, stop-loss at 68000, target profit range 79200-87200, taking profits in batches.

② Short positions at high: Short in the 83200-83800 range, stop-loss at 84200, target profit range 78200-73200, taking profits in batches.

③ Extreme high short: If the upper short position is unlucky and gets stopped out, wait for a second opportunity to position medium to long-term shorts in the extreme high range of 86500-88500, stop-loss at 89500, target profit range 66500-46500, taking profits in batches.

5. Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Strategy

① Light long on dip: Lightly long in the 77200-76600 range, stop-loss at 76200, target profit range 78400-79600, taking profits in batches.

② Light short on high: Lightly short in the 80400-81200 range, stop-loss at 81588, target profit range 79000-77600, taking profits in batches.

II. Ethereum (ETH) Monthly and Weekly Trend Analysis and Trading Ideas

1. Monthly Trend Analysis

This month, Ethereum also closed with a bullish candle, consistently breaking through multiple monthly moving average pressures, but the close was precisely constrained by the 60-day moving average and the middle line of the Bollinger Band, indicating a clear upward blockage.

From historical patterns, after a significant rise away from the moving average system, it is difficult to maintain a high position and initiate a sustained one-sided increase without sufficient retracement to build up strength; most without a retracement tend to return quickly. Therefore, until a proper retracement confirming support is completed on the monthly level, I do not anticipate a strong continued rise in the short term. This month's market still leaves space for bearish pullback opportunities, whether for profit taking at the top or betting on a bottom re-entry, providing ample operational space.

2. Weekly Trend Analysis

The weekly chart has recorded two consecutive bullish candles (big bullish + small bullish), with prices probing the upper Bollinger Band and then retracting under pressure, failing to form an effective breakout, with the 2600 mark becoming a significant strong resistance at the weekly level.

On the support side, the core short-term support is at 2230, with strong support at 2030. The distance of support points from the current price is quite significant, creating a structure where pressure is near and support is far. Therefore, in the short term, the market is more inclined towards a corrective downward movement to build up strength. Coupled with the high position pin-bar pattern at the daily level, the probability of a short-term bearish pullback is high.

3. Overall Market Summary

This month's core trend logic for Ethereum aligns with that of Bitcoin: Limited space for an initial surge, with a necessary full retracement to build pressure before a new rise, signifying the kickoff of a new bull market.

In the short term, with dense pressure above and clear constraints, the preferred operation strategy is to rely on resistance levels to lay short positions, avoiding the risk of chasing after high prices; wait patiently for a large-scale deep retracement and confirmed support before positioning medium to long-term long positions to seize the trending market.

4. Ethereum Medium to Long-Term Trading Strategy for September

① Pressure short positions: Short in the 2610-2640 range, stop-loss at 2655, target profit range 2410-2210, taking profits in batches.

② Secondary short positions: If the first round of short positions is stopped out, wait to lay short positions again in the high range of 2780-2840, stop-loss at 2880, target profit range 2380-2080, taking profits in batches.

③ Regular long positions: Long in the 2230-2190 range, stop-loss at 2170, target profit range 2330-2430, taking profits in batches.

④ Extreme low long: If the low long position is stopped out, wait for an extreme retracement in the range of 1980-2040 to load up heavily on long positions, stop-loss at 1950, target profit range 2400-2760, taking profits in batches.

5. Ethereum Short-Term Trading Strategy

① Light short at high: Lightly short in the 2515-2545 range, stop-loss at 2560, target profit range 2455-2395, taking profits in batches.

② Light long on dip: Lightly long in the 2415-2385 range, stop-loss at 2370, target profit range 2455-2495, taking profits in batches.

III. Conclusion and Benefits Tips

September is packed with significant fundamentals, ensuring sufficient market fluctuations and clear trend opportunities. The trading thoughts for both long and short positions are clear; the core principle is to “not chase high, wait for dips at low level, and select opportunities to short at resistance,” operating in line with the trend, laying positions in batches, and strictly setting stop losses to confidently grasp market profits.

This article is an exclusive original plan from the Coin Victory Group. For real-time market strategies, exclusive techniques for solving positions, K-line teaching systems, and practical methods for contracts, you can search for and follow the public account "Coin Victory Group."

Currently, the platform has opened a free experience group for fans, exclusive community live broadcasts, and daily updates of practical content, free from any tricks. This Thursday early morning, we will monitor the Federal Reserve meeting throughout the process, providing real-time interpretations of market movements and updating strategies on-site.

This article provides practical content; feel free to like, follow, and continue to keep up to accurately seize every wave of market opportunities and avoid getting lost in trading!

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