BIT trading moment: BTC tested the 50-week moving average twice and retreated both times. The selling pressure wall coincides with the options expiration and the first appearance at the WASH annual meeting. Is a change in trend imminent?

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BTC Approaches $82,000 Key Wall

After a drop to $77,700 over the weekend, Bitcoin rebounded strongly, with the price reaching as high as $81,280, and today it faced resistance after challenging the 50-week moving average again. Currently, the market's main focus is whether BTC can stay above this moving average on a weekly basis.

The 50-week moving average is currently around $81,000. Notable KOL DeFi Dad stated that this line is often seen as a "bull market support line" and is a simple indicator for determining whether BTC has re-entered a bull market; if BTC can clearly stay above this position in the coming weeks, it will signal an important moment. Colin Talks Crypto pointed out that BTC has not formed a higher high yet, and structurally it still needs confirmation. If it can form a higher high later on, the probability of the cycle low point having appeared will significantly increase; however, if it retracts after the first major rebound peaks, the historical median retracement is about 18.1% (between 17.5% and 21.1%), and if it corrects from $81,200, the price may drop to around $66,500—this position perfectly coincides with the neckline of the head and shoulders bottom pattern.

In terms of short-term trends, renowned analyst Ash Crypto believes that BTC still maintains a bullish structure characterized by synchronously rising highs and lows, and traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels. Currently, the local support level for BTC is at $77,800-$78,000, with stronger support at $75,500-$76,000, while the core resistance level above is at $81,270 (i.e., where the 50-week moving average is). The market has evolved into two paths in the short term: if it can hold at $78,000 and break the descending trend line, the next target will be directly at $83,000; if it breaks below $78,000, it will test $76,000 downward before Friday. With the Jackson Hole meeting approaching, this consolidation range is not likely to last long.

In addition to the technical pressure of the 50-week moving average, structural factors in the derivatives market have also intensified the difficulty of the attack and defense at the $81,000-$82,000 level. On-chain and options data show that the range of $83,307 to $84,569 is congested with nearly 975,000 BTC in profit and liquidation, while above $82,000, there is nearly $3.6 billion in derivatives with “negative gamma” exposure, forcing market makers to dump to hedge when prices approach $82,000. Today, the $6.44 billion concentrated expiration of Bitcoin options on Deribit will be key to unlocking this standoff. With the 30-day call options fully pricing above put options, the restrictive gamma locked after the options expire is expected to release; once Bitcoin突破 $82,000 and stands firmly on the 50-week moving average, market makers' hedging buy orders will accelerate and push prices toward $85,000 or even $100,000; conversely, if the breakout fails, a historic deep pullback phase may be welcomed.

Today's Key Points:

Chain Game DeFi Kingdoms: DFK Chain will be suspended on August 28
Falcon Finance (FF) unlocks approximately 77.14 million tokens, worth about $6.2 million
Upbit's 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, TRUMP, BTC, ETH, SOL
Bitcoin Spot ETF: +$242 million, continuing nine days of net inflow
Ethereum Spot ETF: +$235 million, continuing nine days of net inflow

The largest increases among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: TRUMP up 22.5%, ENA up 11.2%, JUP up 6.4%, UNI up 5.3%, XMR up 4.7%.

Stock Index Futures fluctuate, Night Trading Funds Begin to Pick Up

The three major US stock index futures fluctuated slightly, with Dow futures up 0.14%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.28%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.08%. After Nvidia's earnings ignited AI market sentiment, the market began to wait for the Jackson Hole speech, shifting sentiment from excitement to caution.

BIT Night Trading Data shows that the AI sector has seen a pullback, with Nvidia dropping 0.54%, Micron Technology down 2.03%, Marvell Technology down 8.80%, SanDisk down 2.42%, Intel down 1.60%, and SK Hynix down 1.63%.

PayPal plummeted 14.17% in night trading due to reports that Stripe and Advent have abandoned their plans to acquire PayPal;
IREN fell 8.54% in night trading; although the company disclosed strong AI cloud business contracts, its FY27 capital expenditure target is as high as $25-30 billion, raising market concerns about cash burn pressure;
Marvell Technology fell 8.8% after its earnings report; despite exceeding expectations for performance and guidance, the accumulated gain this year has left the market with very low tolerance.

Nvidia Holds Up the Market, Fed Remains a Mystery

Last night, US stocks experienced a typical "AI single-line rescue," with Nvidia single-handedly shattering the pessimistic narrative of AI capital expenditure peaking, driving the Nasdaq to soar 1.57%. Nvidia's Q2 revenue was $96.22 billion, and its Q3 guidance far exceeded expectations, with a single-day market cap increasing by about $442 billion, marking the second-largest increase in individual stock history. Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan believe the guidance is conservatively biased, and supply constraints are the true bottleneck.

Although "big short" Michael Burry bought Nvidia call options yesterday, he made it clear that this move is merely a hedge against his massive short position, not a bullish sign. Burry continues to warn that there are risks of self-reinforcing financing and demand overestimation in AI infrastructure investments, and his short stock position has now surpassed 21% of his portfolio.

Meanwhile, software stocks staged a "SaaS Resurrection Night," with ServiceTitan rising 22.58%, Okta gaining 28.63% to reach a four-year high, CrowdStrike increasing 20.50% for its best single day since its IPO, and Tenable rising 13.39%. Goldman Sachs explicitly stated, "Software is not dead," as AI becomes a new tool for price increases and security budget expansion. CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz said that securing AI is the largest market opportunity in history.

On a macro level, the market's focus has shifted to tonight's 22:00 speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, which will determine how the market re-prices interest rates. If Warsh's speech is distinctly hawkish, US Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to rise, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks and Bitcoin; if he only emphasizes controlling inflation without giving strong rate hike signals, the market may continue to trade risk assets on the rebound.

Cryptocurrency concept stocks collectively exploded, with data from BIT US Stocks showing Strategy soaring 11.54%, reaching a new high since June 2; Coinbase rose 4.92%, driven by a recovery in trading volume, ETF inflows, and the adjustment of Coinbase's premium improving exchange income expectations; Robinhood increased 1.12%, as active cryptocurrency trading provided support for its order flow and crypto business; Circle rose 4.82%.

Mining companies showed even stronger performance, with MARA rising 5.79%, CleanSpark rising 6.32%, Bitdeer up 6.19%, Cipher Digital up 4.68%, Terawulf up 3.26%, Hut 8 up 2.51%, Riot up 1.31%, American Bitcoin up 7.09%, and Canaan up 11.25%. BlocksBridge pointed out that Bitcoin's approximately 23% increase over the past week has driven mining companies like Canaan, American Bitcoin, and Cango—previously under pressure—up 41%-67%, outperforming some AI infrastructure stocks.

Japan Strong, South Korea Under Pressure, A-share Agriculture Strong

Market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region has become cautious ahead of Jackson Hole, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up 0.41%, while South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.79%.

The core variables in the Japanese market remain inflation and the yen. Japan's July unemployment rate dropped to 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5%; Tokyo's core inflation was basically in line with expectations, leading the market to continue betting on the Bank of Japan possibly tightening policies further in the future. Meanwhile, the bid-ask spread for Japanese two-year government bonds reached the largest since 2016, indicating an increasing sensitivity of the bond market to policy normalization.

In South Korea, the central bank’s unexpected rate hike, combined with a cooling in AI themes, has led to a pullback among major semiconductor stocks: SK Hynix fell 3.87%, and Samsung Electronics dropped 2.81%. SK Hynix's CEO, Kwon Dong-ki, stated that the supply tightness of memory semiconductors is expected to last until the end of 2030, but the market is currently more focused on profit-taking.

In terms of A-shares, the ChiNext index rose and then fell, dropping 1.41%, while agricultural stocks surged against the trend, with multiple stocks including Dunhuang Seed Industry, New Hope Liuhe, and Wanxiang DeNong hitting the daily limit; the chemical sector collectively surged, with Jinniu Chemical, Chitianhua, and Lutianhua also hitting the daily limit; innovative drugs and CRO concepts saw declines, with Wanbang Pharmaceutical and CanSino dropping over 10%; semiconductor and computing hardware also followed the Asia-Pacific tech stocks in a pullback. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to promote breakthroughs in integrated circuits' critical core technologies along the entire chain, while reminding the robotics industry to tailor its strategies to local conditions to prevent blind imitation and overshooting, which provides a "support and cooling coexistence" policy signal for thematic investments.

Things to Watch Next:

August 28 (Friday)

22:00 Warsh's Speech at Jackson Hole: Will determine how the market re-prices interest rates. If he is clearly hawkish, US Treasury yields and the dollar may rise, putting pressure on tech stocks and gold; if he is not hawkish enough, risk assets may continue to rebound.
22:00 Final Value of Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index & Preliminary Correction Value of Non-Farm Employment: Inflation expectation sub-data will directly affect the market’s pricing of long-term rates. The magnitude of the revision in employment data will determine the strength of the "economic resilience" narrative.
Results from Meituan, BYD, and China National Petroleum: Meituan focuses on takeaway competition and margins; BYD focuses on overseas expansion and gross margins of new energy vehicles; China National Petroleum is influenced by oil prices and natural gas demand.

August 29 (Saturday): Changxin Storage's parent company, Changxin Technology, will release its first half-year report since its listing.

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