Yesterday, the market was originally entering a bearish correction structure, but in the evening, NVIDIA's earnings report exceeded expectations, quickly warming up risk appetite, which acted as a "stimulant" for the market, forcing the originally bearish daily line to pull back and eventually close in the green.

However, this does not mean that the high-level risks have been eliminated.

Currently, the 1-hour and 2-hour charts have resumed running at high levels, and although the momentum after the death cross on the 12-hour chart has weakened, there is still an overall need for adjustment in the technical structure. From a short-term trading perspective, the logic for shorting at high levels still exists; however, from the price structure, both BTC and ETH daily lows are continuously rising, and bulls are still trying to push higher by using “sideways trading instead of falling, and exchanging time for space”.

This is also what makes the current market the most torturous: **clearly there is indicator divergence, insufficient volume, and evident adjustment demand, yet the price is unwilling to drop significantly.** For contra-trend short positions, it is easy to fall into a dual consumption of time and space.

Today we enter the window of the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, while the market also needs to digest inflation data and other macro variables. Any new policy signal during high-level phases could become a catalyst for amplified volatility.

Therefore, it is currently more suitable to operate around key positions rather than making unilateral bets at high levels.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Leaning towards rising and then falling, looking for opportunities to short at high prices, but not blindly trying to guess the peak.

The biggest contradiction for BTC right now is: the weekly chart is still in a bullish cycle, with strong performance in the small cycles, but the divergence in the larger cycle is becoming increasingly obvious.

The retracement space of the weekly chart this time is not large, coupled with the fact that the monthly chart has already formed a significant bullish structure; the conditions for a deep drop in the last stage of this month are temporarily insufficient. Therefore, even if an adjustment begins, it is more likely to maintain high-level repeated fluctuations, gradually digesting bullish momentum over time.

The real window of concern may come after the monthly chart switches. If after entering September, the monthly chart begins a normal retracement, the market could gain more significant adjustment space.

Thus, the strategy at this stage remains: not to chase longs, wait for highs; not to heavily short in advance, wait for high price spikes and signs of stagnation.

79500—80000 is still the first important resistance level. If it cannot hold steady after another attempt to breakthrough, pay close attention to the rise and fall. If a strong breakout occurs, then 80600—81100 will become the next resistance zone.

Support: 77500-78000
Resistance: 79500-80000, 80600-81100

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Relatively stronger than BTC, but short-term overbought is evident, focus today on preventing rise and fall.

Recently, ETH has performed relatively stronger compared to BTC, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate continuously improving, rebounding significantly since the June low, and breaking through the previous downward trend line, which is also an important reason for ETH’s ability to maintain high levels recently.

If the exchange rate continues to strengthen, ETH still has the potential to challenge 2600 or even 2650.

But short-term risks cannot be ignored either.

After a rapid increase, ETH has accumulated a large amount of profit, with multiple cycles showing divergence; the time and space needed for adjustment have not fully released. Although the price remains high with continuously rising lows, the cost-effectiveness of pursuing further gains has clearly decreased.

2400 is still a very important lifeline for bulls. As long as this area is not effectively breached, the larger structure still has room for recovery; however, if there is a spike and subsequent volume stagnation in the 2510—2550 area, one should be cautious of profit-taking.

Thus, today we also lean towards observing the rise first, then preventing the fall.

Support: 2450, 2410, 2380
Resistance: 2510-2530, 2550, 2563

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This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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