This week, the market continues to maintain its strength. Yesterday, BTC fluctuated upward before retreating again, with 80,000 USD becoming the most crucial battleground for bulls and bears; ETH showed significant resistance around 2550, continuing to underperform BTC.

From a weekly structure perspective, the current pullback is still limited, and the bulls have not shown significant retreat, leaving the market with the potential to continue upward momentum. However, since last week, market sentiment has notably agitated, and the trend has gradually shifted from low-level recovery to high-level competition.

A noteworthy phenomenon in the funding aspect is: the inflow of spot funds coincides with a cooling of leveraged funds.

Last week, the inflow of US spot BTC ETF approached 2 billion USD, and ETH ETF inflow was about 697 million USD, indicating the existence of genuine buying pressure; at the same time, the open contracts for BTC futures decreased from about 353,500 BTC to 312,600 BTC. This suggests that the current rise is not solely driven by new high-leverage funds, but also includes a clear short position covering and support from spot funds.

This is relatively positive for the medium-term trend, but after consecutive short-term rises, multiple cycles have reached high levels, increasing the risk of chasing after rises.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Short-term is biased towards bullish, but it is not advisable to blindly chase rises around 80,000; focus on protecting against false breakouts.

BTC has been attempting to break through 80,000 consecutively yesterday and today, and is still oscillating around the high level to gather strength.

From a short cycle perspective, the 1-hour and 2-hour charts are still in a clear attack mode. The adjustment after the high yesterday was not sufficient, but the price quickly bounced back to a high level again in the morning session today, indicating that the bulls are still strong in the short term.

However, the risks are also very apparent:

The 4-hour and 6-hour charts have already reached high levels, and the 8-hour chart is showing a divergence in momentum.

This means that although the price continues to make new highs, the marginal momentum supporting the rise is weakening. If 80,000 cannot be effectively broken through after repeated tests, it is easier to form a high-level false breakout.

Therefore, the current position is not suitable for blindly chasing rises. Instead of guessing the top directly, it is more worthwhile to wait for signals such as accelerated upward movement, quick spike, and volume stagnation before looking for short opportunities.

Conversely, if 80,000 breaks through substantially and holds effectively, a new round of short squeeze needs to be guarded against, with the next resistance to watch around 81,300.

Support: 78,100-78,400
Resistance: 80,000, 81,300

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Short-term still has upward potential, but significantly weaker than BTC; key to observe the ETH/BTC exchange rate.

ETH has clearly lagged behind yesterday, with the pressure around 2550 never genuinely broken through.

One of the key factors determining whether ETH can catch up is still the ETH/BTC exchange rate. If the exchange rate cannot show a significant strengthening, ETH is likely to continue underperforming BTC; once the exchange rate suddenly surges, it is necessary to guard against a rapid catch-up in ETH.

From a technical structure standpoint, the 1-hour and 2-hour charts are still in attack mode, so taking a direct short position here still carries the risk of being forced upwards again.

However, the 12-hour chart has shown a relatively clear divergence in momentum with price rising while momentum does not increase simultaneously, making this state difficult to sustain in the long term.

Therefore, ETH is more suitable to wait for signals after a high-level sprint:

Blindly chasing shorts carries acceleration risks; high-value short opportunities are better after a rapid spike.

If 2530-2550 cannot be effectively broken through, high-level pressure still exists; if it stabilizes above 2550 with volume, then continue to watch 2570 and 2596.

Support: 2460-2480, 2440
Resistance: 2530-2550, 2570, 2596

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This article is originally published by 【Huying Community】 and only represents personal views. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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