Since this week, the market has maintained a high level of enticing the bullishness and a repeated tug-of-war rhythm. The previously effective 2-hour support has started to loosen and break after continuous testing. Although the price has recovered today, the support has been repeatedly consumed and its strength has clearly diminished. We need to remain vigilant on whether it can hold up during the next retest.

ETH's weakness is more apparent, as the key support was broken yesterday, and the original support has turned into resistance above today, further suppressing the bullish structure.

Meanwhile, the market has shown obvious high-level overheating signals. The BTC fear and greed index has risen to 74, entering the greed zone, with the RSI reaching 82.45, indicating a serious overbought condition; the ETH daily RSI is also continuously overbought, and the MACD is starting to form a death cross. The demand for a technical correction after consecutive large gains is continuously accumulating.

In the next few days, macro events will intensively appear. The Jackson Hole annual meeting, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, PCE inflation data, and Nvidia's earnings report may all become catalysts for amplifying the volatility of risk assets.

Therefore, what we need to pay more attention to now is not "how much more it can rise," but rather whether weekly and daily level adjustments are beginning to resonate.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Today's tendency is to rise and then fall back, primarily short on high, and secondary long on low.

Currently, both the 12-hour and daily charts have left clear long shadows at high positions, indicating that there has been strong selling pressure during the price rise. Even if there is another upward movement today, we must guard against it being just a last round of enticing the bulls using a short-term repair.

Currently, the 1-hour and 2-hour charts are in a technical repair stage, and there is still about 3-6 hours of repair time left. However, the price is already close to the 1-hour resistance area. If the transaction volume cannot simultaneously increase, the difficulty of continuing to advance will significantly increase.

Therefore, the core logic today is:

Key supports can be bought low, but never chase high; when rebounding close to resistance, focus on seeking short opportunities.

If the area of 79500—80000 shows high slow rise or quick spikes again, we need to be particularly wary of re-triggering daily adjustments.

Support: 77500, 78100
Resistance: 79500-79800, 80000, 81270

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Mainly short on high, with low long as a supplement.

ETH's performance in this round is significantly weaker than BTC. Even though BTC refreshed its short-term high with the enticing trend yesterday, ETH still could not break through the previous high of 2550, indicating that there is clearly insufficient follow-up capital at high levels.

More importantly, the 2-hour support was officially broken yesterday and has now started to turn into resistance.

Although the current 1-hour and 2-hour charts have also entered a repair cycle, the extent to which ETH can rebound largely depends on BTC's rebound strength.

From a larger cycle perspective, the 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour charts still show significant demand for correction, so the current repair looks more like building a shadow on the daily chart rather than restarting an upward trend.

If it rebounds to the area of 2485—2533 but fails to break through with volume, we still need to guard against the bears regaining strength.

Support: 2440, 2400-2420, 2366
Resistance: 2485-2500, 2520-2533

Tencent Meeting 24-hour live room: 994-517-5076

Aicoin group chat search Huiying Community or click the group link to join: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=onjrNpKn6

This article is published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents only personal views. Due to certain delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
For more timely daily analysis and strategic ideas, everyone is welcome to add Safew’s contact information or add three lines: HYSQks888, to join the group for free learning.
Our community has 15 professional analysts monitoring the market live all day. Here, you can not only learn technical analysis methods in actual combat but also systematically understand the ideas of breaking through positions and risk control systems.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。