Dear teammates, the news this morning is very lively. Zhibao Technology has completed the private placement of 2,380 bitcoins, and a listed company is directly accumulating coins, which is a solid long-term bullish signal. Even more explosive is UBS significantly increasing its holdings in IBIT call options, with exposure surging 24 times; such a level of institutional action is not something retail investors can disguise. The combination of these two messages indicates that large funds in traditional finance are accelerating their layout in bitcoin, rather than waiting and watching. However, as the market approaches the 64,000 position, some divergence signals have appeared in the short-term technical analysis, and we need to calmly dissect it.
The current time is August 18th, 10:59, with bitcoin priced at 64,103 USDT, up 1.68% in the last 24 hours. This position is very delicate, just above the 64,000 round number but not far from it. The market sentiment has recovered from the panic of shorts being liquidated for 57.4 million, but the sustainability of the bulls still needs verification.
First, look at the daily level. MA5 is at 63,532, MA10 is at 63,710, and MA30 is at 64,208; short-term moving averages are beginning to turn upward, but the price is still below MA30. The MACD's DIF is -108, DEA is -89, and the histogram is -18; although the decline is narrowing, it hasn't turned positive. RSI is at 49.97, just near the 50 axis, where the bullish and bearish forces are balanced. The daily chart gives me the feeling that a bottom structure is brewing but hasn't fully confirmed a reversal yet.
The 4-hour level is relatively optimistic. MA5 is at 64,155, MA10 is at 63,687, MA30 is at 63,343, with the moving averages in a bullish arrangement. The MACD's DIF is 181, DEA is 8, and the histogram is 173, with the red bars still increasing. RSI is at 68.5, close to the overbought zone but not extreme. The bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart is still present, but RSI indicates that the short-term may need to take a break.
The 1-hour level has shown warning signals. MA5 is at 64,302, MA10 is at 64,334, and MA30 is at 63,755, with the short-term moving averages beginning to converge. The MACD's DIF is 255, DEA is 276, and the histogram is -20, having just formed a death cross. RSI is at 63.6, still above 50, but momentum has clearly weakened. EMA55 is at 63,618, with the current price at 64,103, a distance of 0.76% from EMA55.
The 15-minute level is more direct. MA5 is at 64,156, MA10 is at 64,252, MA30 is at 64,336, with the moving averages in a bearish arrangement. The MACD's DIF is -33, DEA is 10, and the histogram is -44, indicating a death cross state. RSI is only at 13.05, a signal of extreme overselling. The 15-minute level has a short-term rebound demand, but the strength of the rebound will depend on the volume accompanying it.
Let's verify this with the Qinglan TPV system. The current price is 64,103, with the 1-hour EMA55 at 63,618, and the price is above EMA55. In the past 8 1-hour candlesticks, the number of closing prices greater than EMA55 is 8 out of 8, with 0 breaches, not meeting the oscillation threshold, falling within a one-sided bullish trend area. But note that the current price is only 0.76% away from EMA55; while it hasn't reached the 0.3% oscillation standard, it is very close. If the price continues to drop, it may soon enter the oscillation range.
Regarding the conditions for going long, the condition of the price stabilizing above EMA55 is met, with two consecutive 1-hour candlesticks closing above EMA55. However, the condition for stabilization of support is questionable, as the 15-minute RSI has reached 13, indicating short-term overselling, but the 1-hour MACD just formed a death cross, and the downward momentum has not fully exhausted. The condition of the MACD bars shortening for two consecutive periods has not yet appeared at the 1-hour level. Therefore, the TPV system currently does not provide a clear long signal.
As for the conditions for going short, with the price above EMA55, the first condition is not satisfied. Thus, the bearish signal is also invalid. The current state is biased towards bullish but with weakened short-term momentum, in a wait-for-pullback confirmation phase.
On-chain data shows that the fear and greed index is unknown, but BTC's market share is 56.51%, indicating that bitcoin still dominates the market. The 24-hour increase of 1.68% is not violent but shows steady growth. The signal of institutional funds flowing in is very clear; UBS's options increase and Zhibao Technology's private placement are both long-term funds. The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields to a 19-year high poses a hidden risk, but bitcoin has had a stronger correlation with U.S. stocks recently, and the strength of cryptocurrency stocks in U.S. stocks supports this indirectly.
In terms of key attack and defense levels, the first resistance level above is at 64,336, which is the position of the 15-minute MA30 and is also a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. The second resistance is at 64,800, which is a previously dense trading area. The first support below is at 63,618, which is the position of the 1-hour EMA55 and is also the dividing line of the TPV system between bulls and bears. The second support is at 63,343, which is the position of the 4-hour MA30. If the price breaks below 63,618, the trend judgment will have to shift from bullish to oscillating or even bearish.
Regarding trading ideas, Qinglan Sister provides two plans. Plan One: Buy on pullback. If the price pulls back to the 63,600 to 63,700 range, while the 1-hour MACD histogram shortens for two consecutive periods, and RSI rebounds from the oversold zone, you can try to buy with a small position. The entry price is set around 63,700 USDT, with a stop loss set below 63,300 USDT, and the target is 64,500 USDT. The core logic of this plan is that the support of EMA55 is effective, and the trend is not broken. Plan Two: Buy on breakout. If the price breaks above 64,350 with increased volume and stabilizes, confirming through a golden cross on the 15-minute MACD, you can chase long. The entry price is set around 64,400 USDT, with a stop loss at 64,000 USDT, and the target at 65,000 USDT. The core logic of this plan is that the short-term adjustment ends, and the bulls regain control of the situation.
As for risk warnings, the rise of U.S. Treasury yields to a 19-year high is a sword hanging over our heads; if risk assets collectively correct, bitcoin will find it hard to be unaffected.
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