Author: Metrics Ventures

Metrics Ventures' Market Observation Guide for the Crypto Market for July-August:

1/ This was originally a July headline, but due to Warsh's statements in July being extremely critical, we have decided to moderately extend the monthly analysis span. Unsurprisingly, the title is smoothly reused. As of the issuance of this monthly report, Warsh's inept behavior has already been priced in by the rapidly steepening spreads in the bond market. The issues surrounding the dollar can no longer be changed or resolved by a single Fed chair, and the process will ultimately be one of repeated disturbances.

2/ From the market perspective, we see that the U.S. stock market and debt market continue to view credit issues in a fragmented manner: the stock market has somewhat blindly maintained its stance after selectively unwinding some leverage, while the bond and currency markets continue to mercilessly give distrustful evaluations. The earlier bottoming of gold and silver indicates a clearer consensus among central banks, namely that the era of currency degradation in the West no longer accepts verbal disturbances; the trends are unstoppable. At this moment, we are not concerned that the bubble in U.S. stocks will further burst in the short term; more attention will be paid to how the next steps of liquidity release represented by FIMA will evolve.

3/ Looking forward, for Q3-Q4, we remain optimistic about rigidly constrained resources in the global supply chain such as copper and electricity, as well as gold, which continues to reflect the trend of currency discrediting. We believe that in the digital currency market, it will be difficult to see significant excess returns before the excessive liquidity release and the marginal growth of AI is fully priced in.

Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Trends:

Regarding market trends, our main viewpoints are:

① Resources like gold remain a priority liquidity-absorbing asset over Bitcoin at the moment, and the consolidation over the past few months has been very healthy:

② The bull market trend for renminbi assets is still clearly established and should not be overly doubted, taking the core sci-tech 50 of this round of market as an example:

③ Not only has the spot price of copper reached a new high first, but both key resource country stock indices and currencies have approached the end of a directional choice:

Considering the current trends in the foreign exchange and bond markets, we tend to believe that commodities stocks, including gold and silver, have reached the end of this consolidation phase. Even considering that some assets correspond to valuations that could be seen as generous free call options on metal prices after a rebound, under the current background where the marginal growth of AI is inevitably slowing, some colored assets in the renminbi market are worth paying attention to.

From a macro perspective, we place special emphasis on the significance of this round of coordinated interest rate interventions between the U.S. and Japan, as well as the interaction between Warsh and Bessent for predicting future Fed actions. In reality, a Fed chair attempting to become an emperor at the end of an empire is fundamentally unreasonable, and the Treasury's direct engagement in using tools like FIMA to usurp the FOMC's role as the supreme leader appears to be a genuine action taken by the current administration. As a friend noted, reducing communication, fabricating data, and glossing over problems allows the Ming Dynasty to continue its revelry. Based on this, choosing a strategy with a significantly positive EV over a three-year dimension, going long on colored resources is also a good choice.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。