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Bitcoin Battling at $65,000 Mark, Weekly 200 EMA and 50-Month Line Become Focus of Long and Short Positions, Institutional Net Long and ETF Inflows Occur Simultaneously
Bitcoin has regained the $65,000 level after non-farm payrolls surprisingly turned negative, leading the market to quickly lower expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, with BTC briefly reaching the August high of $65,390; meanwhile, last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since April, indicating a significant improvement in liquidity.
However, the market faces multiple structural challenges amid the rebound. The contradiction between institutional bullishness and leveraged imbalances is particularly pronounced. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju pointed out that hedge funds on CME have rarely transitioned to a net long position in BTC futures, which is a positive signal of a shift in institutional sentiment. Nevertheless, sentiment in the options market remains cautious, with traders using hedging strategies to guard against potential breakout risks in September. More worryingly, the current long position size has reached about $23.4 billion, accounting for as high as 57.6%, with leverage highly concentrated on the long side; historically, such extreme imbalances are often accompanied by severe liquidation risks.
Technically, the market is facing the “historical replay” risk of key resistance levels. Analyst Rekt Capital warned that BTC is currently forming “lower highs” relative to July’s upper shadow. In August 2022, Bitcoin did create “higher highs” above July's but then began a bearish test of the 50-month EMA, ultimately encountering resistance and making a significant drop. Currently, Bitcoin's technical structure is at a similar position, facing suppression from the 50-month EMA. If it fails to effectively break through this resistance, the market may face further downside risks, with monthly closes from July to December that year all below the 50 EMA.
Analyst Daan Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin looks set to close again at the weekly 200-day moving average, and the space between this line, the bull market support band, and the weekly 200 EMA is becoming increasingly tight, which may eventually trigger a weekly volatility of over 10%. Bulls need to break through $70,000.
Several traders are also focusing on the resistance around $65,400 to $65,800, with Doctor Profit emphasizing that the area has seen multiple false breakouts recently; if the weekly close can stabilize and confirm, the next target would point to the $77,000 to $78,000 range; conversely, a retreat could quickly test the accumulation range of $61,500 to $64,000. BIT analysis believes that $65,000 to $67,000 is currently the core contested zone; if it can break through $65,800 and stabilize at $67,000, the market is expected to enter an acceleration phase; conversely, if this week’s CPI data is hot and triggers a rebound in US Treasury yields, BTC will face the test of retesting the support levels of $64,000 and $63,000.
Today's Key Points:
This Week Preview | US July CPI Data Released; U Tree Technology Launches Subscription
Binance Alpha will launch the DAPPOS (DOS) airdrop on August 10
Avalanche (AVAX) unlocked about 1.67 million tokens, valued at approximately $10.73 million
Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: CAP, BTC, XRP, MMT, ETH
The Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $854 million this week, with BlackRock IBIT leading the inflow with $694 million
The Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $245 million this week, continuing five weeks of net inflow
The HYPE spot ETF saw a net inflow of $2.8408 million this week
The XRP spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.0127 million this week
The SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $144.9 thousand this week
The largest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: HASH up 16.9%, WLD up 13.9%, PUMP up 11.8%, BTW up 9.4%, VVV up 8.1%.
Three Major Index Futures Fluctuate Slightly, Night Market Funds Continue to Chase “Space + Optical Communications”
The three major US stock index futures fluctuated slightly, with Dow futures down 0.01%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.44%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.18%.
BIT Night Market Data showed that space concept stocks continued to rise, with SpaceX futures increasing nearly 2% (having surged nearly 16% in the previous trading day), Rocket Lab up 3% and set to release its latest quarterly results after hours. The optical communications sector continues to rise, with Coherent up over 3.6%, AAOI up over 4%, and Lumentum and Corning each up nearly 2%.
Weakening Employment Sparks Rate Cut Trades, Market Bets on “Short Storage, Long Optical”
Last Friday, the US July non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, well below the expected increase of about 80,000, with May and June revised downwards by approximately 103,000. The market quickly reduced bets on a September rate hike, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to around 4.65%, putting pressure on the dollar. All three major indices closed higher: the Dow was up 0.28%, Nasdaq was up 1.30%, and S&P 500 was up 0.62%, reaching a new closing high. Tom Siomades, Chief Market Economist at AE Wealth Management, believes the weak employment report should raise concerns, but strong earnings reports are currently dominating pricing.
There has been a significant shift within the AI sector, with capital moving away from the storage sector and flowing toward optical communications and software fields. Coherent surged 13.44%, AAOI rose 9.2%, Lumentum went up 6.22%; Seagate fell 4.71%, Western Digital dropped 3.8%, and Micron slipped 0.44%. Goldman Sachs TMT trader Peter Callahan noted that AI agent traffic has surpassed human traffic, and optical devices are outperforming storage. Concerns about DRAM and NAND prices peaking in the next two quarters have prompted a further downgrade of Micron's target price by Citigroup, adding pressure; however, bulls argue that the storage fundamentals have not yet deteriorated and that AI capital is merely rotating between different bottlenecks.
Palantir rose 10.32% (nearly 40% for the week), and Atlassian surged over 35% after earnings. The AI application layer is beginning to transition from storytelling to profit verification, and the ability to convert model capabilities into client contracts will determine whether valuations can continue to expand. After the lock-up of SpaceX expired, it did not drop but instead rose, accumulating about 23% over two days, driven by short covering and record-high call options trading.
Berkshire also sent signals of long-term capital allocation, buying about $23.5 billion in stocks and selling $3.7 billion, marking the first net stock buy in over three years. As of June 30, Alphabet jumped to become the largest holding, followed by American Express, Apple, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola.
The cryptocurrency concept stocks strengthened due to Bitcoin's rebound; according to BIT US Stocks data, Strategy rose 3.26%, Coinbase rose 5.63%, Robinhood rose 2.84%, Circle rose 5.36%.
The mining sector had mixed results: IREN surged 8.7%, Canaan Technology rose nearly 10%, while CleanSpark, Cipher, Terawulf, and Riot fell between 3% to 5%. Tonight, before the US stock market opens, attention should be paid to Sharplink and Bitdeer releasing their Q2 financial reports.
Additionally, the BIT US Stocks Trading Competition has officially kicked off. Users who complete registration and meet the criteria during the event can share a $30,000 cash prize pool, with a maximum of $6,000 for individuals. The top three in trading volume will have the chance to win physical prizes such as the iPhone 17 Pro Max, DJI drones, or Meta AI smart glasses. The competition will run until August 29 and is limited to BIT US Stocks users who have completed KYC.
Japan and South Korea Follow US Stocks and Employment Conditions, Japanese Stock Market Will Not Open Tomorrow
Driven by weaker-than-expected US employment data and alleviating rate hike concerns, major markets in Asia-Pacific opened higher on Monday. The Nikkei 225 closed up about 2.1%, the Topix index rose 0.6%, and the Korean Seoul Composite Index was up 0.7%, following the strong performance and risk appetite in US stocks last week. Notably, the Japanese market will be closed on August 11 due to the “Mountain Day” holiday.
Despite the overall market strengthening, the semiconductor storage sector underperformed, experiencing a collective pullback. Among them, Korea’s storage giant SK Hynix fell 0.14%, and Samsung Electronics dropped 0.43%; China's storage manufacturer Changxin Technology fell 2.25%, while Japan’s storage stocks such as Kioxia inched up by 0.59%.
As for Hong Kong stocks, Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Zhizhi to HK$1700, optimistic about GLM progress, improvement in computing power, and growth brought on by new financing; at the same time, it lowered MiniMax's target price to HK$900, believing its growth is more backend-loaded. Morgan Stanley continues to be optimistic about Alibaba, citing its complete AI technology stack, computing power advantages, and healthy trends in cloud business growth and profit margin expansion.
Future Attention Needed:
August 10 (Monday)
U Tree Technology Sci-Tech Board Subscription: One of the most anticipated humanoid robot IPOs this year, online and offline subscriptions will commence simultaneously. The enthusiasm for subscriptions will directly reflect the risk preferences in the A-share robot industry chain, potentially catalyzing sentiment in areas such as reducers, servo motors, sensors, and controllers.
Changxin Technology Included in MSCI China All Stocks Index Effective: Due to its IPO, Changxin Technology is included in the index, and the market will pay attention to passive fund allocations and sentiment dissemination in the domestic storage industry chain. Coupled with news of Apple testing Changxin storage chips, attention to the domestic DRAM, packaging, testing, equipment, and materials chains may heat up.
August 11 (Tuesday)
12:30 Australian Reserve Bank Rate Decision; 13:30 Australian Reserve Bank Governor Lowe's Press Conference: The market generally expects the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35%, with a focus on whether declining inflation, weakening employment, and real estate risks will prompt the Australian Reserve Bank to signal future rate cuts.
August 12 (Wednesday)
Lumentum, CoreWeave, Advanced Micro Devices Expected to Report After US Market Close: The performance and capital expenditure guidance of optical module leader Lumentum and computational rental leader CoreWeave will directly test the actual consumption of AI infrastructure; AMD's gross margin (expected 15-17%) and order conversion speed will determine the sentiment in the computing server sector.
US EIA, OPEC, IEA Monthly Reports Being Released in Close Succession: The three major energy reports will focus on examining global oil supply and demand, inventory, OPEC+ production discipline, and demand outlook. If reports indicate tightening supply or rising risks in Hormuz, oil prices may continue to rise, potentially raising inflation expectations; if demand expectations are revised down, the momentum for oil price rebounds may be limited.
U Tree Technology Subscription Payment: As a highly anticipated IPO of a humanoid robot, the payment situation and market enthusiasm will continue to affect sentiment around the robot concept.
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