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Bitcoin Narrowly Fluctuates, Market Awaits Non-Farm Payroll and Clarity Bill Progress
Last night, Bitcoin slightly rose with risk assets, briefly reaching about $64,500, but is currently still pressured by the 15-day moving average (about $64,200). On-chain data shows that approximately 155,000 BTC were traded in the range of $62,000 to $65,000, with major funds vigorously absorbing. Glassnode pointed out that over 3% of the supply, around 515,000 BTC had their last transaction price concentrated near $63,000, while about 362,000 BTC were concentrated around $61,000. The current price nearly coincides with the 200-week moving average (about $63,700), indicating strong support in this area.
In the options market, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has dropped to 36%, a new low since the end of May, indicating a low-volatility state in the market. Traders are highly vigilant about future directional volatility returning to bring about one-sided trends. Market participants commonly view $60,000 as a critical support level, while $64,700 and $71,000 are seen as strong resistance levels. Notably, traders on the forecasting platform Kalshi are betting on a drop below $60,000 this month, and the number of users betting on declines to $57,500 and $55,000 is rising.
Notable traders Killa and Daan Crypto warn that extreme price compression will inevitably lead to a breakdown, with August historically being a "weak month" (median return -7.49%), making it prone to washouts amid liquidity shortages. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently projected that Bitcoin has a 55% chance of fluctuating between $58,000 and $67,000 in August, with a bearish probability of 30% and a bullish probability of 15%.
In terms of market outlook, the focus is on this Friday's non-farm payroll data and the progress of the Hormuz Strait agreement. If the agreement proceeds smoothly, it will boost risk appetite, favoring Bitcoin's upward breakout; conversely, if employment data is too hot or the agreement is hindered, the $64,000 resistance may be more difficult to surpass, and the price may test the $62,000 or even $60,000 support with increased probability. Additionally, regulatory progress on the Clarity bill needs to be closely monitored. BIT's analysis suggests that if the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are re-priced within the year, both gold and Bitcoin are likely to benefit.
Today's Highlights:
On August 5, Binance will add 10 new bStocks trading pairs including ALABB, ASMLB, ASTSB
Succinct (PROVE) will unlock approximately 208 million tokens on August 5, valued at about $34.29 million
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 172 million tokens on August 5, valued at about $13.39 million
Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock approximately 433,000 tokens on August 6, valued at about $22.67 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: GRVT, HOME, BTC, XRP, QUID
Bitcoin spot ETF: +$211 million
Ethereum spot ETF: +$53.74 million
Top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: PUMP up 12%, ZEC up 6.2%, HYPE up 4.9%, LIT up 4.8%, STABLE up 4.1%.
Three Major Futures Continue Optimism, Tech Stocks Slightly Fluctuate
The three major US stock index futures continued to rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.13%, Dow futures up 0.22%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.34%.
BIT night trading data shows that in the US stock night trading, tech stocks began to hesitate, with Micron Technology, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Storage ETF DRAM, Marvell Technology, Intel, Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Meta all fluctuating in the range of -2% to 2%.
AMD fell nearly 8% in night trading; Q2 earnings showed revenue of $11.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%, exceeding expectations, but Q3 revenue guidance did not fully impress the market;
SpaceX fell nearly 8% in night trading; its first earnings report showed Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%, EBITDA significantly increased, but AI-related capital expenditures reached $15.8 billion, expected to remain high in subsequent quarters;
NVIDIA rose over 2% in night trading; CEO Jensen Huang tweeted three times to promote their autonomous driving model; SpaceX will “exclusively” use NVIDIA’s AI computing architecture and plans to deploy NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin NVL72 rack-level system on the ground and in space;
Arista surged over 13%, both performance and guidance exceeded expectations: AI network demand supported Q2 revenue slightly above $3 billion, up 37.7% year-over-year, and it raised its 2026 guidance for the third time, expecting annual revenue of $12.6 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of about 40%;
Rocket Lab rose nearly 3%, securing a $397 million contract with the US military.
Palantir Soars Nearly 30%, Michael Burry Remains Bearish on Stock Market, Mining Companies Cipher and Hut8 Report Earnings Below Expectations
Expectations for a temporary agreement at Hormuz are rising (Trump claims results will be known in 48 hours, possibly announcing a 60-day arrangement on Wednesday), oil prices plummeted over 5%, and inflation concerns eased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to around 4.62%.
Yesterday, the Dow rose 1.71%, breaking 54,000 points for the first time; the S&P rose 1.79%, both reaching historical highs, while the Nasdaq rose 2.59%. Palantir soared nearly 30% triggering AI software, while heavy equipment giant Caterpillar surged over 5%, reaching a historic high, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped over 6%, with storage and optical communication sectors all rallying.
Goldman Sachs traders pointed out that clean positions, valuation discounts, and improved earnings visibility resonate, but the activity is only rated 4 out of 10, with 0DTE options betting on rising volatility; the structure is relatively weak.
Michael Burry remains bearish, stating that the market may be near a significant top, even presenting a sharp drop risk similar to that of 1987, and noted that historical cases of the S&P 500 rising 5% after four trading days to a new high are few, with March 2000 and April 1999 nearing the tech bubble danger zone. He continues to hold short positions in semiconductor ETFs, Micron, NVIDIA, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, Applied Materials, and has extended the put options on NVIDIA to June 2027.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks have strengthened almost across the board with the rise of Bitcoin. According to BIT US stocks, Cipher mining company fell 15.65%, as it is currently in a painful transition from Bitcoin mining to AI and high-performance computing data centers, with Q2 revenue and net profit significantly under expectations, and the company’s net loss expanded to $267.5 million, with Bitcoin mining revenue dropping to $24.8 million, a year-on-year decline of 43%. Hut 8 fell 9.74%, with Q2 revenue and net profit also below expectations; Bitmain Technologies surged 12.46%, planning to liquidate part of its digital assets for share repurchase.
In addition, Coinbase, Strategy, Circle, and Robinhood all gained 2% to 5%, with Strategy-related preferred stocks STRC recovering above $90, rebounding nearly 24% from the June low; Coinbase has had a continuous negative premium for 79 days since May 19, with weak demand for US spots.
Moreover, the BIT US stock trading competition has officially started, users who complete registration and meet the criteria during the event can share a $30,000 cash prize pool, with a single person able to win up to $6,000, and the top three in trading volume have the chance to win physical prizes like the iPhone 17 Pro Max, DJI drone, or Meta AI smart glasses. The competition lasts until August 29 and is limited to BIT US stock users who have completed KYC.
Japanese and Korean Tech Stocks Strongly Rebound, Goldman Sachs Upgrades Chinese AI Large Model Revenue Expectations
Overnight US stock new highs and optimistic expectations for Hormuz boosted risk appetite in Asia-Pacific, with the Nikkei 225 index soaring 3.66%, strongly regaining the 66,000-point mark, SoftBank rising 13.96%, and Kioxia up 4.24%; the South Korean KOSPI index rose 3.76%, while the ChiNext index rose 2.41%.
South Korea's storage giants led the charge, with SK Hynix surging 5.77% (peaking nearly 8% during intraday), and Samsung Electronics closing up 2.5%, as the market bets on shareholder return plans (quiet period ended) and continued HBM demand. Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek surged 14.43% and 14.48%, respectively, on rumors of exclusive supply of Tesla's Cybercab camera modules. Goldman Sachs reiterated buy ratings on Samsung and Hynix, believing that valuations are extremely pessimistic, and HBM prices are expected to nearly double by 2027, with long-term agreements skewed towards suppliers.
Affected by rumors of a US ban on optical modules, A-shares briefly fell in early trading, but by close, the three major indices were collectively higher. MLCC, storage chips, and PCB concepts led gains, with semiconductor equipment ETFs soaring collectively, as funds flowed back to hard tech sectors.
Hong Kong stocks in the optical communication sector faced pressure, with Zhongji Xuchuang's H-shares initially dropping about 7%, and Cambridge Technology down about 5%. In response to market rumors about the US planning to restrict new optical modules from entering its data centers, Zhongji Xuchuang responded that upon verification, the FCC has not issued any related restriction documents, and no comment on subsequent impacts will be given.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the field of Chinese AI large models. Goldman pointed out that Chinese models are reshaping the competitive landscape with their extreme cost-effectiveness and multimodal capabilities, with the latest weekly AI large model invocation volume list dominated by Chinese enterprises. On this basis, Goldman Sachs raised the annual recurring revenue expectation for Chinese AI large models from $10 billion to $13 billion by 2026, and is optimistic about related entities such as MiniMax, Zhiyu AI, GDS, Century Internet, Alibaba, and Kingsoft Cloud.
Things to Watch Next:
August 5 Major Earnings Reports: Circle, Uber, Eli Lilly, BeiGene, and others. Circle's earnings report will directly impact stablecoin and cryptocurrency stock sentiment, with the market focusing on USDC growth, interest income, and regulatory guidance; Uber is related to travel consumption and platform economy, while Eli Lilly is a key indicator for weight loss drugs and pharmaceutical growth stocks.
August 6 (Thursday)
SpaceX Restricted Stock Unlock: SpaceX will unlock up to 911.5 million shares of restricted stock, with potential value nearing $100 billion at the latest stock price, marking this week’s largest liquidity pressure test. If the unlocked sell pressure is limited, it will enhance market confidence in the absorption capability of high-value tech assets; if the sell pressure is concentratedly released, it may drag down Nasdaq and Musk-associated asset sentiment.
05:00 SanDisk, Western Digital after-hours earnings: This will directly affect the sentiment direction of the storage sector, with Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix recently experiencing consecutive pullbacks, the market will focus on enterprise SSD, NAND prices, AI data center storage demand, inventory cycles, and guidance for the second half of the year.
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