Written by: Trend Research

Trump released the news that the U.S. and Iran are in talks, and the Strait of Hormuz could reopen as soon as tomorrow, with the first step being to open the passage and the second step to discuss denuclearization. This statement directly knocked oil prices down by 5%, and U.S. Treasury yields also eased. Meanwhile, technology stocks were buoyed by the residual warmth of the earnings season over the past few days, with the index of the seven giants soaring 3.6% in a single day, marking the best performance in four months. Google’s market value surpassed Apple to rise to second in the world, while Amazon stepped into the $3 trillion club. However, across the Pacific, the situation was starkly different, as South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix were hit hard, and the previous Friday's 18% single-day surge was almost completely wiped out.

U.S.-Iran negotiations ignite optimism, oil prices plummet 5% in a single day

The Dow rose 1.32%, the S&P 500 rose 1.48%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.13%, with all three major indices opening high and continuing to rise.

On the same day, Trump stated that negotiations with Iran would proceed in two steps: the first step is to open the Strait of Hormuz, and the second step is to advance denuclearization, suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen as soon as tomorrow. Following this news, international crude oil futures settlement prices fell by about 5%, with WTI down 5.11% and Brent down 4.73%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.69%, after having previously surged to the highest level since January 2025, marking a moment of relief.

COMEX gold rose 0.15% to $4113 per ounce. COMEX silver rose 1.08% to $58.4 per ounce. Bitcoin opened Monday at $63,497.25, up 1.2%, but fell back to $62,643 in the early trading session; Ethereum opened at $1,883.15, up 2.2%, but also fell back to $1,840.70 in early trading.

Oil prices fell, but Trump’s attitude towards oil companies did not soften. On the same day, he stated that oil giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron have made "too much money" from the conflict with Iran and called on them to "return some profits to the public." This is not the first time he has made such statements; similar harsh remarks were made at the end of June. In short, oil prices have been pushed high due to geopolitical risks in recent weeks, and the profits of oil companies during this period look good. Trump seems to want to take advantage of the momentum from the negotiations to give these companies a little reminder.

The seven giants soared 3.6% in a single day, Google surpassed Apple to rise to second in the world

The index of the seven giants in U.S. stocks surged 3.6% that day, marking the best single-day performance since March 31. Google rose over 4%, with its total market value surpassing Apple, reaching second globally. Amazon also rose over 4% and set a new record, with its total market value standing at $3 trillion, becoming the fifth publicly traded company to cross this threshold. Nvidia rose nearly 3%, its market value returning to above $5 trillion. Meta rose 6%, as the company will attend the White House AI conference tomorrow. Microsoft rose nearly 5%, with cumulative gains in the last three trading days approaching 25%.

This wave of broad gains is largely supported by the earnings reports released over the past few days, including Microsoft’s cloud growth, Amazon’s AWS performance, and Meta’s spending commitments. The solid reports from these giants have significantly boosted market confidence in AI as a key theme, and today’s easing geopolitical news added more momentum.

Korean chip stocks face a setback, nearly all gains from the past week erased

The atmosphere across the Pacific was completely opposite. The Korean Composite Index fell over 5% that day, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropping over 8%, dragging down the entire Asian chip sector. The Korean exchange was forced to activate a trading halt mechanism for the start-up board index, pausing algorithm-driven trading for five minutes. Just last Friday, the KOSPI had set a record for a single-day gain of 18%, and this correction has nearly erased that gain.

Similarly dealing with storage concept stocks, U.S. stocks took a completely different path. Most optical communication and storage sectors rose that day, with Kioxia ADR rising about 14%, Lumentum and Coherent rising over 9%, SanDisk and Corning rising over 6%, and Credo rising over 5%, while only Western Digital and Seagate, along with SK Hynix, saw slight declines in U.S. stocks. The same industrial chain is showing two distinctly different pricing behaviors between U.S. stocks and Korean stocks.

The sentiment repair is just the beginning, with two variables determining how far it can go

Today’s trading day was essentially a convergence of two lines: one is the macro sentiment repair brought by geopolitical easing, with falling oil prices and declining Treasury yields giving the entire market some breathing room; the second is the tech stock confidence accumulated from the earnings season, as the reports from giants like Microsoft and Amazon have encouraged funds to continue increasing their positions in the seven giants. The convergence of these two lines resulted in today’s broad rally.

The divergence between Korean chip stocks and U.S. storage stocks is worth a closer look. Within the same storage industrial chain, the Korean stocks are more influenced by leveraged funds and short-term profit-taking, while the U.S. stocks are more aligned with the actual demand signals conveyed by the earnings season. If the actual data on storage prices in the next few days can validate the optimistic pricing of U.S. stocks, this divergence may not persist for too long.

Trump’s remarks about oil companies are also worth noting, as he is actually trying to balance between lowering oil prices and not offending voters. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can really reopen tomorrow as he claims will be the first test to assess how far this wave of optimism can go.