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The Cryptocurrency Market Enters "Light Position Pull", August Must Hold the Support at $62,000
Bitcoin rose by 7.27% in July, officially entering a crucial game phase in August. Due to Bitcoin's performance in August during the past three bear market cycles all showing declines, with an average drop of 14.8%, the market is concerned that August may see another fall. BIT points out that if BTC can hold the $62,000 level, panic sentiment will ease and selling pressure will lighten; several analysts have noted that if it fails to hold $62,000, it may retest the $57,000 to $60,000 range. Analyst CrypNuevo states that BTC needs to reclaim $65,000, or it faces a risk of dropping to $59,000.
It is worth noting that BTC's opening price this week (around $63,600) is below the 200-week moving average (around $63,800), and this line has turned into a resistance level, while the 300-week moving average support is around $55,500. However, Daan Crypto Trades believes that Bitcoin is still close to the 200-day moving average on a weekly basis, and the market lacks directional breakout. Traders should not overinterpret short-term fluctuations until a clear breakthrough or breakdown occurs at higher time frames.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders have recently exhibited unusual transfers, with over 65,000 BTC moving on-chain for two consecutive days. Approximately 14,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, including 2,628 BTC transferred from a Trump-related listed company to exchanges, sparking discussions in the market about large holders reducing risk exposure. Analysts note that if this is merely individual rebalancing, the impact will be limited; however, if large-scale distribution continues, it will constitute short-term pressure.
Additionally, macro risks remain the largest external variable for BTC. Murphy points out that attention should be paid to four potential risks: the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates again, conflicts in the Middle East and fluctuations in oil prices, overvaluation and financing risks in the US AI sector, and the pressure to close JPY arbitrage trades. Furthermore, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative territory for 78 consecutive days, and Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, believes this indicates that US institutional investors still face selling pressure, with spot demand weaker than overseas. Despite the US spot Bitcoin ETF recording a net inflow of $172.4 million in July, ending two months of outflows, a single-day outflow of $265.4 million occurred on July 31, showing that investor risk appetite remains cautious.
Today's Key Points:
This Week's Preview | SpaceX, Circle Q2 Earnings Reports Unveiled; Zapper, Ctrl Wallet Suspended
Binance Contracts to Launch GIGADEV Perpetual Contract on August 3
Crypto Wallet Ctrl Wallet to Cease Operations on August 3, Already Removed from App Stores
Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: BTC, XRP, MANTRA, HYPER, ETH
Bitcoin Spot ETF Had a Net Outflow of $61.53 Million Last Week, Ending Three Weeks of Net Inflows
Ethereum Spot ETF Had a Net Inflow of $27.42 Million Last Week, Continuing Four Weeks of Inflows
HYPE Spot ETF Had a Net Outflow of $14.74 Million Last Week
XRP Spot ETF Had a Net Inflow of $14.86 Million Last Week
SOL Spot ETF Had a Net Inflow of $2.82 Million Last Week
Today's Top Gains Among the Top 100 Cryptos: M Up 10%, ALGO Up 5.9%, UB Up 2%, ENA Up 1.4%, POL Up 1%.
US Stock Index Futures Rebound, Storage and Cloud Computing Slightly Up in Night Trading
The three major US stock index futures continued their rebound, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.71%, Dow futures up 0.54%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.52%.
BIT Night Trading Data shows that in US night trading, the semiconductor, storage, and optical communication sectors rebounded, with Micron Technology up 21.66%, SanDisk up 2.45%, SK Hynix up 0.41%, and storage ETF DRAM up 1.85%; cloud computing giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta rose 1.16%, 0.54%, 1.37%, and 1.52% respectively.
Mining companies Applied Digital, TeraWulf, Cipher Mining, etc., received funding support based on the "Powered Shell" and AI power narrative, gaining strength in night trading.
US Stocks Close July, Funds Flow into Cloud Computing on Friday
Last Friday, US stocks experienced a V-shaped reversal, with all three major indices rising; however, the overall performance in July was weak, with the S&P 500 index essentially flat for the month, marking the worst July since 2014; the Nasdaq index fell 3.2% for the month, the worst July since 2004.
Goldman Sachs data shows that last week witnessed the largest scale of unilateral liquidation since November 2022, with funds flowing out of high-leverage positions in semiconductors and storage, and into cloud giants. Last week, the combined market value of the cloud giants Microsoft, Amazon, and Google increased by nearly $1.5 trillion, while Meta, which had seen eleven consecutive declines, also rose 3.28% on Friday.
Additionally, the storage sector collectively adjusted downwards on Friday, with Micron falling 5.9% (down 28.7% for the month but still up over 180% for the year), SanDisk down 5.09% (down 46.57% for the month), and SK Hynix down 3.54%. Kioxia plummeted 10.1% due to disappointing earnings.
Crypto concept stocks weakened across the board on Friday as the price of Bitcoin dropped. According to BIT US Stock data, Coinbase fell sharply by 10.59%, Strategy dropped 4.56%, Circle down 2.54%, and Robinhood down 0.05%. Mining company Riot fell sharply by 8.82%, while IREN, MARA, CleanSpark, and Bitdeer dropped by 4%-5%.
Korean Volatility Surpasses BTC, Storage ETF DRAM Reduced Holdings in Samsung Electronics to Buy Changxin Storage
Korea's KOSPI index surged 17.91% last Friday and then dipped 5.13% on Monday. Bloomberg data shows that the KOSPI's year-to-date return volatility has risen to 63%, surpassing Bitcoin's 48%, making it the most volatile major national stock index globally. This indicates that the crowded trading of AI and storage has turned the Korean stock market itself into a high Beta asset.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell nearly 9%, dragging down the index. Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating for the Korean stock market to overweight, stating that after the leverage clean-up, there remains about 36% upside potential, supported by AI and industrial supercycles; Goldman Sachs raised the target price for Samsung to 490,000 KRW, expecting demand for memory chips to significantly exceed supply.
The Japanese stock market also faced pressure, with the Nikkei 225 index closing down 0.94%, primarily dragged down by a stronger yen and weak chip stocks. Trump and US Treasury Secretary Yellen confirmed US involvement in supporting currency intervention for the yen, with the dollar slipping below 156 against the yen temporarily.
Notably, the hottest storage ETF DRAM underwent significant rebalancing last week, sharply reducing holdings in Samsung Electronics while simultaneously buying Changxin Storage, raising Changxin's weight to about 2.52%, seen by the market as an important signal of Chinese memory companies entering the mainstream international DRAM investment system. Currently, the ETF’s top ten holdings cover global memory companies such as Samsung Electronics, Micron, SK Hynix, Western Digital, SanDisk, Kioxia, Changxin Technology, and Zhaoyi Innovation.
Next, Attention Needs to Focus On:
August 3 Berkshire Hathaway, Mining Company American Bitcoin Earnings Report: The market will focus on Buffett's cash reserves, stock repurchases, insurance underwriting profits, railroad and energy business performance, as well as whether to continue reducing or increasing core holdings in Apple, Bank of America, Western Oil, etc.
August 4 Major Earnings Reports: Palantir, Hut 8, Cipher Mining, ON Semiconductor, Snap, McDonald's, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Merck, Spotify, etc. The future of AI applications will depend on whether Palantir can take over the AI infrastructure role, while Hut 8 and Cipher Mining will test the narrative of mining companies transitioning to AI data centers.
August 4—August 6: Ai4 2026 and FMS Flash Memory Summit. Hinton, Fei-Fei Li, and Andrew Ng will share the stage, with giants like Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Samsung in attendance; Samsung EVP Lee Joon-young will give a keynote speech on August 4, expected to announce the next-generation HBM4E and V-NAND technology roadmap. SK Hynix, Kioxia, Micron, and Western Digital will also attend.
August 5 (Wednesday)
04:30 SpaceX's First Earnings Report Since Going Public: The market will closely watch Starlink revenue, Starship commercial progress, free cash flow and capital expenditure pace. As SpaceX is set to face a large-scale lockup expiration in two days, if the earnings report does not provide a strong growth narrative, the stock price may face dual pressure from liquidity and valuation; if Starlink revenue and commercial launch guidance are strong, it may alleviate the pre-lockup selling pressure.
05:00 Earnings Reports from AMD, Astera Labs, Arista Networks: AMD's earnings are a key test for the second tier of AI chips. The market focuses on shipments of MI series AI chips, data center revenue, gross margins, and guidance for the second half; Astera Labs is an important target for AI server interconnect and data center connectivity chips, while Arista serves as a bellwether for AI network switches and cloud data center capital expenditure.
Yu Shu Technology IPO Roadshow: The robotics and embodied intelligence sector will encounter valuation anchors, and if inquiry popularity is high, the A-share robotics and AI hardware chain may receive a short-term catalyst.
Major Earnings Reports: Circle, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Disney, Applovin, IonQ, BeiGene, etc.
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