In mid-2026, a series of numbers originally scattered across different sectors were forcibly pulled onto the same chessboard: the CertiK report indicated that there were 52 wrench attacks in the crypto space in the first half of the year, an increase of one-third year-on-year, with losses of 124.1 million USD rewriting "physical security" into on-chain risk models; on the Black Sea end, a Kazakhstani export terminal was attacked by drones, pushing WTI crude oil futures to 90 USD/barrel in late July, a daily increase of 4.07%. The combination of tight computing power and rising energy costs elevated the marginal cost curve for miners and data centers; at the same time, Beijing publicly encouraged the development of the token economy and intelligent systems, supporting underlying infrastructure with computing power coupons, while Nvidia donated a GB300-based supercomputer system to the Naval Postgraduate School, with Jensen Huang explicitly linking AI as a foundational defense capability. The AI arms race and "computing power inflation" escalated from a capital narrative to a national security issue; meanwhile, in the regulatory and liquidity landscape, Coinbase chose to establish an office in Singapore and planned to expand its local team from about 150 to 200 people by the end of 2026, betting on Asia as a key settlement hub for compliant trading and USD-denominated on-chain assets. Against the backdrop of rising global security risks and energy costs, and the redistribution of computing and regulatory resources, BTC, ETH, and on-chain high beta assets are entering a stage of forced revaluation: risk premiums, capital eastward movement, and trading structures will no longer operate according to the old paradigms of the previous cycle.
Wrench attacks elevate risk premiums: on-chain funds prefer compliant custody
In the first half of 2026, the CertiK report recorded 52 wrench attacks in the crypto space, an approximate 33.3% increase year-on-year, with related losses amounting to about 124.1 million USD. Events that directly physically threaten private key holders are far more intuitive than any smart contract vulnerabilities, breaking through the narrative of "self-custody = absolute security." Over the past few years, the usage rate of self-custody wallets has risen, but the reality of physical security, such as locks, cameras, and personal security capabilities, has not kept up. High-net-worth addresses are highly transparent on-chain but extremely vulnerable offline, leading to personal security costs suddenly being included in holders' risk budgets, creating an additional risk premium from on-chain exposure itself.
In a macro environment with an overall decline in risk appetite, this security premium rapidly alters the structure of fund holdings and trading: part of the leading BTC and ETH chips migrate from single-signature personal wallets to multi-signature structures, relying more on professional custodians and compliant institutions, swapping the risk of "being targeted for private key" for the cost of "paying for risk control and insurance." The continuous promotion of compliant custody and centralized exchanges (like Coinbase) regarding asset isolation, risk control processes, and insurance guarantees, combined with increasingly clear regional regulatory frameworks, makes funds more willing to complete matching and settlement on these platforms rather than being fully exposed beneath on-chain addresses. As a result, the same BTC and ETH trades are more likely to circulate through regulated platforms and custodial accounts, compressing on-chain activity and visible liquidity, seemingly converging volatility while depth remains but behind this, the actual risk bearers have quietly shifted from decentralized self-custody individuals to a few concentrated compliant custodial hubs. Under continuous increases in the number and losses from wrench attacks, the concentration of funds towards compliant custody will become one of the core variables influencing on-chain activity and pricing logic for BTC and ETH in the upcoming quarters.
Oil prices surpassing 90 and computing power inflation: dual costs press miners and data centers
As funds flowed from self-custody back to compliant custody hubs, another cost curve began to quietly rise. In mid-July 2026, the Kazakh Black Sea export terminal was attacked by drones, raising market concerns about the safety of key oil supply routes. In the following trading days, WTI crude oil futures broke above 90 USD/barrel around July 23, marking the first time since June 11 that it reached this level, with a daily increase of about 4.07%. For mining farms and data centers reliant on thermal power and oil and gas power generation, oil prices are not only a macro indicator but also a direct variable embedded in electricity pricing. This surge equated to a sudden elevation on the global computing cost curve.
This elevation is compounded by what is termed "computing power inflation" — the global AI wave has driven up demand for GPUs and data center construction, while computing power on the BTC network has continued to rise. Miners and AI data centers are competing for resources along the same electricity and equipment supply chains. The dual increase in electricity and equipment prices has rapidly compressed the profit margins of marginal miners, forcing operators to reevaluate between "continuing operations" and "liquidating fundraising." For BTC, this directly translates to an increase in potential selling pressure from miners and a concentration of computing power in lower-cost regions and leading operators. While on-chain security appears more stable, the underlying participant structure is further oligopolized; for ETH and other high-energy public chains, markets are likely to incorporate a higher energy discount factor into valuation models, repricing the trade-offs between security and cost, making "who pays for high energy consumption" a core issue for the next stage of risk premiums.
Beijing's computing power coupons and the US military's GB300 raise token expectations
As energy costs rise and computing power concentrates among oligopolies, Beijing's computing power coupons and the US military acquiring the GB300 supercomputer elevate "computing power scarcity" from a business issue to a strategic topic at the fiscal and defense level. For the first time, the policy documents from Beijing include intelligent agents and the token economy in their encouragement list and explicitly support infrastructure construction and utilization through computing power coupons, signifying a willingness of local governments to use budgets and public resources to subsidize computing power and guide on-chain applications. This is directly interpreted by traders as a long-term valuation anchor for "computing power + on-chain." Almost simultaneously, Nvidia donated a GB300-based supercomputer system to the Naval Postgraduate School, with Jensen Huang publicly defining artificial intelligence as a fundamental capability of US defense and bringing the narrative of the AI arms race to the forefront: computing power is not just a cost but a strategic asset that can be allocated by the military and government.
The macro signals from the two overlapping lines are clear: on one side, local finances lower the marginal computing power prices for developers and intelligent agents through computing power coupons, while on the other side, the military locks in upstream capacity through high-end supercomputers. Together, they strengthen the recognition of "computing power as an asset." In the crypto market, this will quickly transform into expected premiums for AI concepts, public chain infrastructure, and layer two networks — any narrative that maps GPU, data center, or intelligent agent traffic onto the chain will be viewed as high beta assets within the computing power cycle. When pricing BTC and ETH, funds will also incorporate new comparative dimensions; BTC remains the native asset of energy-computing power, but tokens related to AI, computing power, and infrastructure are increasingly seen as structural themes bolstered by policies and military support, becoming the preferred direction for probing once risk appetite rises.
Coinbase's bet on Singapore and the consequences of liquidity eastward movement
As uncertainty in US regulations becomes a long-term backdrop, Coinbase's establishment of a new office in Singapore and plans to expand its local team from about 150 to approximately 200 by the end of 2026 is more than just "setting up shop"; it represents a reconfiguration of the compliance landscape. Singapore is viewed as an important compliance and financial hub in Asia, with relatively visible regulatory expectations and a friendly attitude toward institutional products and cross-border settlements, meaning that leading global exchanges are beginning to shift the weight of "compliance dividends" from US regulatory progress to the Asian policy and licensing environment. For over-the-counter institutions and market makers, this is a signal: the incremental funds expected over the next few years, especially professional demand for BTC, ETH, and USD-pegged tokens, will likely prioritize landing and issuance in Asian jurisdictions.
As institutions like Coinbase ramp up their presence in Singapore and across broader East Asia and Southeast Asia, the physical and institutional coordinates of liquidity are shifting east, rewriting the timing and geographical structure of price discovery. The share of BTC, ETH, and mainstream USD-denominated tokens traded during Asian trading hours is rising, indicating that nighttime volatility is increasingly dominated by order books in time zones like Singapore and Hong Kong, making the "opening" of the US and Europe no longer a singular tempo anchor but rather a recalibration of Asian precedence in pricing. The resulting structure is a new regional price differential and cross-market arbitrage: Asian platforms may see brief premiums for BTC and ETH during high volatility periods, with cross-regional market-making funds designing new hedging and arbitrage paths under varying regulatory and tax frameworks by comparing quotes and liquidity depth between Singapore and the US and Europe, ultimately turning the compliance and time advantages of the "liquidity eastward movement" into a long-term reassessment of the volatility structure in the global crypto market.
The new normal of crypto trading under the impact of energy and AI
The security curve, energy prices, computing power policies, and geopolitical liquidity are being locked into the same pricing table. In the first half of 2026, the number of wrench attacks rose to 52, with losses of about 124.1 million USD; holder risks are no longer just on-chain code but also the physical exposure in the real world; WTI, triggered by the drone attack, surpassed 90 USD and remained volatile at high levels, while the electricity cost outlook for miners and data centers has shifted upward, making the supply of computing power for BTC and ETH more distinctly exposed to the dual volatility of energy and war. Beijing's inclusion of the token economy and computing power coupons into policy tools integrates on-chain applications and computing power infrastructure, while the US military locks AI into the arms framework with the GB300 supercomputer, clearly defining computing power as a strategic resource, compounded by global AI demand-driven "computing power inflation." Traders are starting to use defense budgets and electricity price curves to project future on-chain yields. Meanwhile, Coinbase's bet on Singapore continues to elevate the weighting of Asia in terms of regulatory and USD-denominated liquidity, with the risk premiums, capital migration, and arbitrage structures of BTC, ETH, and AI and infrastructure-related tokens transitioning from "crypto internal logic" to a comprehensive game of "energy - security - computing power - geopolitics." The true elements worth tracking next are the time series of wrench attacks and other security events, trends in crude oil and electricity prices, the rhythm of computing power coupons and military supercomputer expansions, and how the proportion of Asia's compliance market changes within the global on-chain liquidity landscape.
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