Organized & Compiled: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Eric Krown, former NYSE Arca options market maker, now a full-time crypto trader, founder of YouTube channel Krown's Crypto Cave

Host: Alessandro, Crypto Banter "Risk Takers" program

Podcast Source: Crypto Banter

Original Title: The Exact Bitcoin Levels That Decide the Next Move | Krown

Broadcast Date: July 19, 2026

Disclosure: Krown publicly states that he bought spot BTC just above $60,000 and operates paid trading courses and exchange affiliate links (ByBit, BloFin, etc.). This content is purely technical analysis and does not involve the promotion of specific project tokens.

Key Points Summary

Eric Krown is a former NYSE Arca options market maker with over 15 years of trading experience, starting as a teenager at the Pacific Stock Exchange learning equity options, later serving as an authorized market maker (MMAT) at NYSE Arca, and switched to full-time trading in the crypto market a few years ago. This is his fourth appearance on Alessandro's "Risk Takers" program, where the monthly series has been tracking one core question in real time: Where exactly is the macro bottom for Bitcoin?

The biggest information increment in this episode is Krown putting together a complete checklist of all the monthly signals converging. The 55 EMA recovery level is $63,735, the stochastic cross trigger is $64,371, the bi-weekly MACD histogram 168-day cycle points to early August, and the LTI tool indicated a strong buy signal in January after the price has retraced 22.64% (consistent with previous cycles of 20-22%). He clearly states that if BTC closes above $63,735 monthly, he has 85% confidence that the macro bottom is being formed. On the other hand, the fear and greed index has remained below 20 for two to three months, market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, yet the price has already shown a major reversal, a divergence that has occurred at every macro low in history.

Highlights of Insights

About the "waiting for 50,000" psychological trap

"Everyone is shouting for 40,000 to 50,000, but if you divide BTC by the M2 money supply, it has actually back-tested the flash crash low of August 2024, $49,270. The number you wanted has already been adjusted for inflation and given to you."

About the 55 EMA monthly line

"BTC spent about half a year below the 55 EMA after breaking it in 2022, and once it recovers, the bull market officially begins. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before recovering. Now, it only needs to close above $63,735 in July for this to recover."

About the 168-day cycle

"From the MACD histogram low in 2018 to the actual price low, it was 168 days. In 2022, 168 days. This trend line has been triggered, pushing back 168 days lands exactly at the beginning of August, coinciding perfectly with the monthly close and stochastic indicator cross time window."

About market sentiment

"The fear and greed index is 28, staying below 20 for two to three months. The price has already reversed from the lows, but sentiment is still in the basement. Looking back at 2015, 2019, and 2022, every macro low point followed this formula."

About traditional market rotation

"The semiconductor index has risen 300% from April 2025 to now; I called the top in early July. Profits are flowing into the healthcare biotech (IBB) and industrial sectors. But the SPY charts are not bearish; I see no macro top signals, at least not until Q4."

About gold and copper

"Gold peaked in January right on the 10-year cycle, likely to trade sideways or down in the next few years. Copper is different, just breaking out of a 20-year consolidation range since 2006, with a target price around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction."

Main Text

Chapter One: "Deflating" BTC with M2 Money Supply

Alessandro: Last month you said BTC hanging around 60,000 until summer would start to look good; do you still think so?

Krown: Yes, and I now have about 85% confidence that the macro low is being confirmed by the end of this month. Let me start with a perspective that I think is severely overlooked. Many people are waiting for BTC to reach 40,000 to 50,000, and various influencers and retail traders are calling for this range. But if you look at BTC against the M2 money supply, the situation is completely different. This chart uses money supply as the denominator, effectively normalizing inflation factors.

It was the same situation in 2022. Everyone was shouting for 10,000, 8,000, but if you standardized by M2, BTC had actually dropped to an equivalent of $10,000 in November of that year. I said on my channel at the time that if you were waiting for 10,000 to 11,000, adjusted for money supply, you had already reached it.

Now the situation is just the same. The 50,000 you want, adjusted for M2, BTC has already back-tested the $49,270 flash crash low of August 2024. The number you wanted has already been provided; you just didn't measure with the right gauge. Since 2020, money supply has increased by 40% to 50%, yet we treat the dollar as a constant to measure asset prices. This is itself a cognitive bias.

Alessandro: I've also used the BTC/M2 chart to explain that BTC is the only asset that continues to create higher highs and higher lows relative to the money supply. The S&P and gold have actually been trending lower against M2.

Krown: Exactly; the S&P just recently broke above its 1999 high, which was also a break against M2. Everything is related to the money supply; nothing operates in a vacuum.

Chapter Two: Monthly 55 EMA, $63,735 as the First Confirmation Signal

Alessandro: Let's get into specific price levels. What’s the status of the monthly 55 EMA you mentioned earlier?

Krown: Let's start with the simplest. The 55 EMA (exponential moving average) on the monthly chart is historically the key average for BTC confirming macro lows. In 2022, BTC took about six months below it, and once recovered, it signals a major change, starting a bull market from there. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before recovering and surged. Going back to 2015 and 2014, although historical data is limited, the 55 EMA also served as a foundational bottom.

The current situation: If BTC closes this month above $63,735, it will have completed the recovery of the 55 EMA. Currently, we are near this price level. There are 11 to 12 trading days left, and so far everything is normal. This signal is very specific and very easy to track. Even if you are the staunchest bear, you have to admit this is at least a major low, and BTC is likely to rebound back above 70,000.

For short-term confirmation, I still need to see BTC closing above 65,500. But on the monthly level, 63,735 is the first hard indicator.

Chapter Three: Monthly MACD, RSI, and Stochastic Indicator Triple Convergence

Alessandro: What about the monthly MACD?

Krown: The monthly MACD is showing signs of momentum weakening; July is the first awesome momentum signal, the last of which appeared in April. Historically, whenever the monthly MACD momentum starts to weaken, the low has either already occurred or is near enough that you might as well enter the market. This was the case in 2015 when a low was already present. In 2019, the reversal almost happened on that bar. Despite the extreme events of the FTX crash in 2022, buying when the MACD signal appeared, you would only have been one month early to the ultimate low, which would have made you very satisfied long-term.

As for the RSI, the monthly RSI is currently at about the same level as the low in 2022, possibly even a bit lower, and below all previous macro lows in BTC's history. Several momentum oscillators are corroborating the same story at the same position.

Now looking at the monthly stochastic indicator. It has just touched the oversold area below 20, which signals a low point. The next confirmation is when it crosses upwards. Every time this cross occurs, the low has already been in place. I’ve been tracking this since the data from 2012; there hasn’t been a single exception.

Here’s a key number: I backtracked, and if BTC closes on the monthly basis at 64,371 or higher, it will force the stochastic indicator to cross upward. So, you see two trigger points in a very narrow range: 63,735 for the 55 EMA recovery and 64,371 for the stochastic indicator cross. If both hit simultaneously, combined with MACD momentum signals and RSI at low levels, even the most bearish bears would have to begin to consider whether this is the macro bottom.

Chapter Four: 168-Day Cycle Pointing to Early August

Alessandro: What about the bi-weekly MACD histogram trend line you mentioned earlier?

Krown: This is one of the tools I used to publicly call out the macro low in 2022 in advance. Looking at the MACD histogram in the bi-weekly timeframe, a downward trend line can be drawn starting from 2018; every time the histogram touches this line, it creates a low point. Note that the low point of the MACD histogram does not equal the low in price; there is a time lag between the two.

However, this time lag is very regular. In 2018: from the MACD histogram low to the actual price macro low, it was 168 days. In 2022: also 168 days. Day to day accuracy.

This time, the trend line has already been triggered. Push it back 168 days, and you land at early August. This timing perfectly coincides with the monthly 55 EMA recovery and the stochastic indicator cross time window. Everything is converging at the same time point.

Alessandro: So, these signals you see are not isolated; they are synchronously pointing to the same conclusion?

Krown: Yes, that’s why I say I have 85% confidence. Any one individual indicator could be wrong, but when five or six independent signals trigger simultaneously within the same week, the odds shift heavily in your favor. It’s like betting on the World Cup odds. France is the biggest favorite, with a 15% chance that climbs to 40%, but the combined probability of all the other teams is always higher than France. You could have a strong reason for betting on France to win, but you are most likely wrong.

Alessandro: Trading is the same; you never have 100% certainty.

Krown: There’s never 100%. But when you have a probability advantage, just stand on that high probability side. You don’t need to be right every time; in a market like BTC, you just need to be right once on a major move.

Chapter Five: LTI Tools and the 22% Rule

Alessandro: What about your LTI (Long-term Investor) tool? Last time you mentioned it issued a buy signal.

Krown: LTI is a long-term tool that combines volatility, momentum, dates, and other fundamental factors. Whenever it issues a strong buy signal, the price usually has about 20% of downward space before the final low point. Let me quickly go over the history.

In December 2014, the first strong buy signal appeared, dropping 22.90% from the signal to the next closing low. In 2018, the signal to the low was 20.61%. The June 2022 signal appeared, dropping to the macro closing low by 20.65%. This cycle, the strong buy signal appeared in January 2026, and from the signal to the current closing low, it has already dropped 22.64%. Four signals, all falling between 20-23%, remarkably consistent.

I have one premise for my macro low judgment: the weekly trend must officially reverse. This is the fact. All high time frames are still in a downward trend right now. But if the monthly closes above those numbers mentioned earlier, I would move my confidence from 80% to 85%. This does not mean BTC won't rise to 75,000 and then drop back to 65,000, but the bottom structure is forming.

Chapter Six: Fear and Greed Index 28, Classic Divergence Between Sentiment and Price

Alessandro: What do you think about market sentiment?

Krown: The fear and greed index is now at 28, previously staying below 20 for two to three months. From my YouTube analytics, the number of followers has significantly decreased. But those who remain are extremely pessimistic.

Here’s a classic divergence: market sentiment is in the basement, yet the price has already completed a major reversal from the lows. This configuration has appeared at every macro low in 2015, 2019, and 2022. People think they are going against the crowd, but in reality, they are the crowd. The crowd is bearish and very certain.

Even if the macro low hasn't arrived, I don't believe there is much downside potential left. The worst case is a protracted rebound. $60,000 is my key level, coinciding with both psychological and technical levels. As long as BTC remains above this level, I treat it as a major low or even a macro low. A weekly or bi-weekly close below $60,000 would damage a lot of structures.

Alessandro: So, your invalidation is a bi-weekly or 10-day close below $60,000?

Krown: Yes, technically you need to see a bi-weekly or at least a 10-day close below $60,000 for those signals to start breaking down. Below that, many things would fall apart. But right now, I haven't seen such signs.

Chapter Seven: Four-Year Cycle? I Don't Care, August is Neighboring October

Alessandro: What about the four-year cycle? Do you think this low will arrive ahead of October?

Krown: To be honest, I no longer care about the narrative of the four-year cycle. Everyone reads on YouTube that "BTC bottoms a year after it peaks, so it must low in October." But how do you define a peak? If using the BTC to M2 chart, the timing of the peaks would differ. When I see low signals, I expect them to appear; I don't care what day the historical textbooks say it is.

Alessandro: But it's only July now, and if the bottom is happening now or within a month or two, you must admit the four-year cycle was right again.

Krown: Indeed, July is only three months away from October. The gap is close enough that you can tip your hat and say "well, it was correct again." I don’t need to be precise to October 16. In this market, you can make a good amount of money without needing perfection. However, if BTC hits a new low in October, I would be very skeptical that it is indeed the bottom, as that would mean the technicals have been more deeply damaged.

Chapter Eight: Semiconductor Peaks, Funds Rotating to Healthcare and Copper

Alessandro: You mentioned that traditional markets are rotating; can you elaborate?

Krown: Semiconductors are the biggest topic. NVIDIA, Intel, Micron, I publicly called a top in early July. The semiconductor index has risen over 300% from April 2025 until now; just holding the index has tripled. People are taking profits, which is completely understandable.

But I'm not bearish on the traditional market. Rotation does not equal a bear market. Funds flowing out of semiconductors are entering healthcare biotech. IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) just completed a daily-level breakthrough, and I expect it to continue rising until the end of the year. There might be buying opportunities with a pullback near 180. The industrial sector is also showing strength.

The SPY charts are not bearish. It may pull back to around 7200 in the short term, but overall I still see it bullish until Q4. I don’t think there are any macro top signals right now, at least not until October or November. QQQ might be weak in the short term, possibly having another flash crash in early August (which has been the case in previous years), but will continue to rise afterward.

Alessandro: The memory ETF has also given back half of its gains, but the index hasn't been much affected. Apple is now the largest company again; it’s insane.

Krown: Apple’s chart looks very good, with at least 3 to 6 months of upside potential remaining. This is how markets operate: one sector peaks, and funds flow into the next sector, which keeps the index rising. This has been the pattern since 2008. Everyone loves to shout about macro tops, likely because they idolize those few in "The Big Short." But honestly, it’s much easier to go long in these markets than to short.

Alessandro: Lastly, what about gold and copper?

Krown: I still have an extremely bearish outlook on gold and silver. Gold peaked in January right on the 10-year cycle, with a high probability of trading sideways or down in the coming years, with retracements available for shorting. If you held longs during this rebound, consider it a selling gift from God.

Copper has a completely different chart. It just broke out of a 20-year consolidation range starting in 2006, with a target price around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction requiring a huge amount of copper. As long as copper prices remain above $560, it looks bullish objectively. I don't often trade copper, but from a purely technical perspective, the breakout is real and has upward potential.