Author: Claude, Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Introduction: Changxin Technology's Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO is priced at 8.66 yuan per share, raising 57.9 billion yuan, with subscriptions starting on July 16. On the eve of the subscription, Trade.xyz deployed the CXMT perpetual contract on Hyperliquid, with the current trading price of 7.2 USDC (approximately 52 yuan per share), a 24-hour trading volume of 1.32 million US dollars, and an open interest of 2.41 million US dollars, implying a market capitalization of approximately 3.5 trillion yuan, situated at the upper end of institutional expectations of 2-3 trillion. This is the first on-chain pre-IPO contract targeting the A-share Sci-Tech Innovation Board and also the most direct entry point for overseas investors into the "China storage replacement" narrative.
Changxin Technology has not yet rung the bell at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, but price discovery in the crypto market has already begun.
According to Bloomberg on July 15, Trade.xyz has deployed the Changxin Technology (CXMT) perpetual contract on the Hyperliquid blockchain, with the contract code xyz:CXMTUSD. As of the time of writing, the 24-hour trading volume of the contract is about 1.32 million US dollars, the open interest is about 2.41 million US dollars, and the funding rate is 0.0014%. The price surged from an initial mark price of about 6 US dollars to 7.2 US dollars, with a 24-hour increase of 20%.
This is not the first time Hyperliquid has conducted pre-IPO pricing. In May this year, before the listing of AI chip company Cerebras, Hyperliquid's pre-market contract was only 1.3% off the NASDAQ opening price; on the day of the SpaceX IPO in June, the on-chain contract had a trading volume of 1.38 billion US dollars in a single day. However, it is the first time targeting the A-share Sci-Tech Innovation Board.
7.2 US dollars is equivalent to approximately 52 yuan per share, implying a market capitalization of approximately 3.5 trillion
The contract is denominated in USDC tracking the price per share, following the same logic used for SpaceX and Cerebras’s pre-market contracts.
According to the current exchange rate, 7.2 US dollars is approximately equal to 52 yuan per share, multiplied by the total share capital after issuance of 66.88 billion shares, implying a total market capitalization of approximately 3.5 trillion yuan, about 6 times the IPO issuance market value of 57.92 billion yuan.
This pricing falls within the somewhat optimistic range of expectations from selling institutions. 21st Century Business Herald quoted investment banking sources saying that after its listing, Changxin Technology is expected to be valued between 2 trillion and 2.5 trillion yuan; Caijing magazine integrated estimates from multiple institutions, predicting an optimistic scenario of 3 trillion to over 4 trillion yuan. The 3.5 trillion yuan pricing on Hyperliquid is positioned between neutral upper and optimistic lower bounds.
In another perspective: if the judgments of these on-chain traders are accurate, the stock price of Changxin Technology on the first day of listing could open around 50 yuan, approximately 6 times the issuing price of 8.66 yuan. In the first half of this year, new stocks on the A-share Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw an average increase of 489% on their first day, so a 6-fold opening is not outrageous.
With the contract launched for less than 24 hours, a trading volume of 1.32 million US dollars and open interest of 2.41 million US dollars has brought initial liquidity to the on-chain market, but still shows a magnitude difference compared to the 1.38 billion US dollars traded on the listing day of SpaceX. This price reflects directional judgments from early participants, not institutional-level pricing.
A-shares cannot be sold on the same day or shorted: perpetual contracts naturally fill the gap
Why would crypto traders focus on a Chinese A-share? Some investors' viewpoints on overseas social media platforms may help explain. A-shares’ institutional restrictions, ironically, create opportunities for perpetual contracts.
A-shares have two structural limitations. T+1 settlement means that shares bought on the same day cannot be sold, and stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board cannot be short-sold. For stocks like Changxin Technology, which may experience significant volatility on the first day, holders of A-shares face an awkward situation: they earn significant gains from price limit increases, but cannot lock in profits on the same day, exposing them fully to the risk of a high open and a low close the next day.
Perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid have none of these restrictions. Trading is available 24/7, with both long and short positions, and leverage can be adjusted. Theoretically, investors holding A-share positions in Changxin Technology can open short positions on Hyperliquid to hedge overnight risks.
However, the absence of an arbitrage path is a problem that needs to be addressed. Cerebras and SpaceX listed on NASDAQ, allowing global investors to freely arbitrage between the actual stocks and contracts, leading to rapid price convergence. Changxin Technology, which is listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, faces a 500,000 yuan asset threshold and QFII quota restrictions, making it impossible for most overseas retail investors to buy the actual stocks directly.
There may be a long-term price gap between the contract price and the actual trading price of A-shares, which investors need to price additionally.
Foreign capital cannot buy A-shares; DeFi has become an entry point for the "China storage replacement" concept
Blockchain.News directly points out in its report that the CXMT contract provides overseas traders a channel to bypass the 500,000 yuan threshold of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board.
This demand is not fabricated. Changxin Technology is the world's fourth largest DRAM supplier, with a global market share of 7.7% in the first quarter. SemiAnalysis expects that by the end of the year, it could surpass Micron to rank third globally. Apple has started testing Changxin Technology’s DRAM chips for devices in the Chinese market (according to a report from The Financial Times on July 8). The expected net profit attributable to the parent for the first half of 2026 is projected to be 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, with a profit margin of about 70%, comparable to SK Hynix's 73% and Samsung's 81%.
With a company like this going public, investors in the global storage industry are paying attention, but the vast majority cannot buy in. Crypto research firm Citrini has repeatedly recommended the perpetual contract scenario on Hyperliquid in its paid reports, while also being bullish on Changxin Technology.
In a situation where foreign capital cannot directly participate in A-shares, Hyperliquid contracts may become the most convenient channel for them to engage in the "China storage replacement" concept.
From a broader perspective, this is the first time DeFi infrastructure has been used to create a parallel pricing market for targets on the Chinese Sci-Tech Innovation Board. Hyperliquid's HIP-3 framework allows any entity pledging 500,000 HYPE tokens (approximately 28 million US dollars) to deploy perpetual contracts. Trade.xyz has used this mechanism to successively launch pre-market contracts for companies like SpaceX, Cerebras, OpenAI, and Anthropic, generating cumulative trading volumes exceeding 1.46 billion US dollars. After TradingView integrated Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz data sources on July 2, the price trends of on-chain perpetual contracts have entered mainstream trading terminals.
It is worth mentioning that Hyperliquid's policy center and TradeXYZ recently met with the SEC's cryptocurrency task force to discuss cryptocurrency regulatory issues. From the current regulatory trajectory, US regulation is primarily focused on platform compliance, and the regulatory risks brought by A-share targets do not currently fall within their consideration.
(Note: Hyperliquid is not open to Chinese users.)
57.9 billion raised, 66 billion net profit in the first half: Changxin Technology itself is an annual event
Returning to the A-share context, even without Hyperliquid's contracts, the listing of Changxin Technology itself is already a landmark event in China's capital market in 2026.
With an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share and an initial issuance of 6.688 billion shares, it is expected to raise 57.9 billion yuan, nearly twice the original plan of 29.5 billion yuan. If the full over-allotment option is exercised, the amount raised will reach 66.6 billion yuan, becoming the largest IPO in Asia this year and the largest semiconductor IPO in A-share history. The issue price-earnings ratio is 308.92 times, far exceeding the industry average of 76.32 times, but the market is not worried, as the net profit of 33 billion yuan in the first quarter is rapidly digesting the valuation. The company expects revenue in the first half of 2026 to be between 110 billion and 120 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent of 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 2244%.
More critically, the timing is crucial. The global DRAM market is in an unusually super cycle of prosperity. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are massively shifting production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) needed for AI servers, leading to a shortage of consumer-grade DRAM supplies, with DRAM contract prices skyrocketing by 90% to 95% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, marking the largest single-quarter increase in history. Changxin Technology focuses on consumer-grade DDR5 and LPDDR5X products, with a monthly production capacity of 200,000 to 300,000 wafers, making it one of the few manufacturers expanding production of consumer-grade DRAM against the trend, absorbing the production capacity gaps strategically relinquished by the three giants.
In the A-share IPO segment, all 71 new stocks listed in the first half of this year have risen on their first days, with an average rise of 489% for new stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. Retail investors can participate in online subscriptions on July 16, with the subscription code 787825, and listing is expected on July 27.
For A-share investors, the subscription on July 16 is the main route. For overseas investors, the CXMT contract on Hyperliquid has opened a side door. After the official listing on July 27, whether the contract price can quickly converge to the actual trading price like Cerebras will be a critical test to see if this model can be replicated in A-shares. But even if prices do not converge, the mere existence of this parallel market demonstrates global capital's interest in the narrative of China's storage replacement is not just talk.
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