Recently, old projects in the crypto ecosystem have sparked a wave of migration—many of them have moved from their original chains or simply abandoned their own built chains to migrate to more mature and popular chains.

For example:

The zkSync ecosystem project @Sophon has migrated from zkSync to BASE;

The leading parachain in the Polkadot ecosystem @MoonbeamNetwork has migrated to BASE;

The once highly anticipated king-level privacy chain @SecretNetwork has migrated from Cosmos to Arbitrum.

If we consider projects that migrated earlier, there are even more.

To summarize the projects that have migrated over the years, they basically share the following characteristics:

- Choosing lower-cost layer two expansions

This category mainly consists of projects originally operating on the Ethereum mainnet.

Due to the excessively high transaction fees on Ethereum before the upgrades in the past year, many projects have migrated to layer two expansions to avoid operational costs.

This group mostly includes non-financial and high-frequency application projects, such as the once-renowned social project Farcaster. Financial projects rarely undergo such migrations.

- The target chains for migration are mainly Base and Arbitrum

According to the latest data from defillama (https://defillama.com/chains), BASE and Arbitrum have already taken a significant lead over other competitors in terms of TVL among Ethereum's layer two expansions.

This lead is reflected in the amount of funds (TVL) but indicates the collaborative projects and ecological prosperity. This means that in such an ecosystem, as long as a project can share a bit of cash flow and popularity, it has a greater chance of surviving.

Therefore, for those projects unable to build their own ecosystems and attract user interest, BASE and Arbitrum are basically their last lifelines.

In fact, project migrations have occurred during past bear markets as well, but why are they happening more frequently in this bear market, and at higher project levels?

Because this bear market poses greater and more brutal challenges to the crypto ecosystem compared to the past.

In past bear markets, the crypto ecosystem faced little external challenge and competition, mainly confronting its cyclical predicament: fearful funds and difficulty in gathering popularity.

However, in this bear market, the crypto ecosystem is not only facing its cyclical difficulties but also immense competition from external factors, especially the artificial intelligence ecosystem.

In previous bear markets, some projects without features could still hope that the next bull market would allow them to rely on market heat to revive old topics, but the likelihood of this happening in the future is nearly zero.

Thus, if a project cannot survive this bear market, it is essentially sentenced to death, with no opportunities for transformation in the future.

I believe many projects have realized this, so this bear market is their only chance to strive for a final glimmer of hope.

In fact, projects that are still able to migrate are already fortunate, as some once-leading projects have already ceased operations in this round, like Zapper, which just announced its shutdown a few days ago.

So for those projects that have migrated to high-popularity ecosystems, will they survive this round of bear market?

I think most are likely just experiencing a last-ditch effort, a final struggle before the end.

The main reason these projects have fallen to this state is that they have consistently failed to adapt to the development of the ecosystem and have not found a model for stable income.

They couldn’t find it in the past few years, so will they find it in the future?

The chances are too slim.

From this perspective, after this bear market's baptism, we can roughly guess which projects are likely to survive.

Apart from some projects that can survive, for those that have existed for several years but still show no improvement or income, regardless of how good their previous reputation was or how high their former popularity, we need not pay attention to them any longer.

We should now focus on those projects that are likely to generate new models, new scenarios, and new applications, and can solidly generate cash income.

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