Author: Wall Street Insights

ASML delivered a second-quarter report that greatly exceeded expectations and significantly raised its annual guidance, while also rarely providing a roadmap for capacity expansion from 2027 to 2028, directly addressing market concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven demand. Major Wall Street investment banks quickly voiced their thoughts, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, and others unanimously maintaining or reiterating buy ratings, believing that this performance has thoroughly validated the narrative of AI supply bottlenecks and strongly rebutted the bearish narrative that memory prices will peak in "2028".

ASML's second-quarter revenue reached €9.3 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's market consensus of €8.9 billion, with a gross margin of 54%, significantly ahead of the guidance range of 51%-52%. The company subsequently raised its revenue guidance for the full year 2026 from €36 billion to €40 billion up to €43 billion to €45 billion, with the median about 11% higher than market consensus; the annual gross margin guidance was also updated to 54%-56%. More importantly, management explicitly stated that they plan to expand low numerical aperture EUV and immersion DUV capacities by approximately 30% in 2027 and 2028 respectively, which directly triggered significant market revisions for profit expectations in 2028.

Following the announcement, ASML's stock price in Amsterdam rose by about 4%, while Nasdaq 100 index futures also increased by about 40 basis points. SK Hynix's shares listed in Seoul soared by 8.8% in a single day, compensating for a 27% rise in its American Depository Receipts. Goldman maintained a buy rating with a 12-month target price of €2000, implying about a 29% upside from the current stock price; JPMorgan similarly maintained an overweight stance, targeting €1900.

Comprehensive Performance Exceeds Expectations, Third Quarter Guidance Surprises the Market

ASML's second-quarter core financial indicators exceeded market expectations. According to a Goldman Sachs research report, second-quarter revenue was €9.327 billion, 6% higher than market consensus; EBITDA was €3.456 billion, surpassing consensus by 13%; earnings per share stood at €7.58, exceeding consensus by about 11%. A gross margin of 54% not only surpassed the upper limit of guidance but also exceeded market consensus by about 230 basis points.

Third-quarter guidance also significantly exceeded expectations. The company expects third-quarter revenue to be between €11 billion and €12 billion, with a median about 11% higher than market consensus; the gross margin guidance is set at 55%-57%, indicating that third-quarter EBITDA will be about 26% higher than market consensus. According to a JPMorgan research report, the median revenue for the third quarter of €11.5 billion is 12% higher than consensus, and the median gross margin of 56% is 350 basis points above consensus.

JPMorgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande pointed out that part of this performance surpassing expectations was driven by the Installed Base Management (IBM) business, which saw revenue exceeding expectations by about €300 million due to productivity upgrades dominated by software and the ongoing expansion of the EUV service's installed base, which is expected to push this business to achieve over 30% growth this year, providing additional support for gross margins.

Capacity Expansion Roadmap Exceeds Buyers' Expectations, 2028 Profit Potential Significantly Reassessed

The most market-sensitive aspect of this performance was management's clear statement regarding capacity expansion for 2027 to 2028. ASML stated that based on approximately 65 units of low numerical aperture EUV capacity in 2026, it will expand capacity by about 30% to approximately 85 units in 2027 and is studying another 30% expansion to approximately 110 units in 2028. Meanwhile, immersion DUV capacity is also set to expand from about 130 units in 2026 to about 169 units in 2027, further increasing to about 220 units in 2028.

According to Goldman Sachs calculations, this capacity plan suggests that low numerical aperture EUV shipments will reach 85/110 units in 2027/2028, far exceeding market consensus of 85/89 units; immersion DUV shipments will reach 169/220 units, also significantly surpassing the consensus of 137/146 units.

JPMorgan noted that the 2028 capacity guidance has exceeded the previous highest forecast level set by the sell-side. According to rough estimates, if the above capacity plan is implemented, ASML's earnings per share in 2028 will exceed €65, and combined with the strong momentum of the Installed Base Management business, actual profits may be even higher. Goldman Sachs' trading desk also pointed out that the 2028 target of approximately 110 units of EUV capacity has fallen into the "super optimistic range" (110 to 120 units), far exceeding the sell-side consensus expectation of about 89 units.

Goldman Sachs stated that ASML has essentially locked in most of the required EUV orders for 2027 and has received a significant number of orders for 2028, with management describing the order intake situation as "extremely strong".

AI Demand Accelerates, Driving Expansion in Logic and Memory

Management clearly stated that AI-driven demand is continuously strengthening in the two major areas of logic chips and memory, supporting customers in further expanding production at advanced process nodes. In the advanced logic sector, ASML pointed out that customers are synchronously increasing capacity at the 5/4/3-nanometer nodes to meet AI demand while aggressively pushing forward with 2-nanometer mass production and beginning preparations for the transition to 1.4-nanometer processes. The company expects advanced logic revenue to grow by about 25% year-on-year in 2026.

Regarding memory, ASML indicated that the tight supply of DDR and HBM is prompting clients to accelerate investments, and the increase in the intensity of EUV and advanced immersion lithography is further driving equipment demand. The company anticipates that memory revenue will grow by approximately 75% year-on-year in 2026.

Goldman Sachs' trading desk commented that as the memory market transitions to the advanced 1c/1d nanometer nodes required for HBM4/HBM5 and traditional server DRAM, memory manufacturing is undergoing a fundamental paradigm shift. The EUV layer count for 1c DRAM has increased to over five layers, while the 1d and 0a generations plan to fully adopt EUV technology in all layers. The deep ultraviolet multiple patterning process has reached physical limits, making ASML the main beneficiary of this structural transformation.

Goldman further pointed out that the wafer strength required for HBM is far greater than that of traditional DRAM, and this dual expansion is severely squeezing global wafer fabrication capacity, keeping memory prices elevated for a longer time. Given the structural complexities of transitioning to advanced nodes, bearish arguments predicting that memory prices will peak before 2028 or that supply gaps will significantly ease "seem prematurely spoke".

Wall Street Collectively Endorses, Divergence Lies Only in the Adequacy of 2027 Guidance

After the performance release, several major investment banks quickly issued positive evaluations, but there were slight differences in the interpretation of the 2027 EUV capacity guidance.

Barclays analyst Simon Coles stated that ASML has provided most of what investors expected; the EUV capacity guidance for 2027 and 2028 should reduce market disputes about whether the company is constrained by supply, noting that EUV order value in the first half of the year could be as high as €22 billion, reaching historic record levels.

JPMorgan's Sandeep Deshpande believes that although the company did not reach 90 units of EUV capacity in 2027, "we consider this inconsequential," given that the EUV and DUV capacity guidance for 2028 far exceeds expectations, and a 35% growth rate in revenue for 2026 has already surpassed current market projections for overall growth in wafer fabrication equipment, effectively guiding around 30% growth in the next two years.

Morgan Stanley analyst Lee Simpson noted that although the company no longer discloses order data, management indicated that order intake in the first half was "very strong," with clients seeking to accelerate capacity expansion, which suggests strong sales momentum in 2027.

Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon took a relatively cautious stance, believing that the company's outlook comments were mixed, particularly positive regarding strong growth in sales and gross margins in the Installed Base Management business but the 2027 EUV guidance fell below recently significantly elevated market expectations.

Oddo BHF predicted that the market consensus profit forecast would be revised up by about 20% and stated, "ASML remains an unrivaled story of technological dominance, now benefiting from fundamentally different cycles driven by AI."

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