1: On Tuesday, due to CPI data being lower than expected, this reduced market expectations for an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar index fluctuated downwards during Asian and European trading sessions, and plunged sharply before the US market opened, momentarily dropping to an intra-day low of 100.58, before rebounding, ultimately closing down by 0.35% at 100.93; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.592%, while the 2-year US Treasury yield, sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy rate, closed at 4.210%.

2: Spot gold rebounded significantly, briefly surging above $4100, but failed to hold above this level, ultimately closing up by 1.27% at $4052.70 per ounce; spot silver ultimately closed up by 1.79% at $58.69 per ounce.

3: Due to the market awaiting the US blockade against Iran, international oil prices continued to fluctuate. WTI crude oil remained around the $80 mark, ultimately closing up by 1.75% at $79.16 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up by 2.14% at $84.55 per barrel.

4:The US stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones up by 0.02%, the S&P 500 up by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.9%.

5:The US June unadjusted CPI year-on-year growth rate slowed to 3.5%, and the seasonally adjusted CPI recorded a decline of 0.4% month-on-month, marking the first decline in six years. As of this morning, interest rate futures are pricing in an expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve of about 30 basis points by the end of the year, down 9 basis points from yesterday.

6: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony before the House: committed to ending the era of high inflation, will closely monitor the impacts of AI. If the balance sheet is adjusted, the market will receive ample warning.

7: US President Trump: Only block Iran's maritime activities, replacing the 20% toll the US would collect with trade and investment agreements with Gulf countries; had discussions with Iran, if no agreement is reached, will attack Iranian power plants next week.

News: Surface inflation cooling, underlying stagflation hardening, friction in Middle Eastern shipping lanes normalizing increases logistics inflation; the Federal Reserve has preemptively fought inflation, with high rates stuck for a prolonged period, all warm data for a month being false warming; there is still resilience in AI real demand, financial themes are deleveraging, and geopolitical sanctions are being institutionalized, raising market risk premiums, with extreme structural differentiation. Asset positioning: The dollar is strong and fluctuating at a high level; gold has short pressure, long defensive positions; cryptocurrencies should be traded only in pulses, not trends. Trading discipline: Do not trust single soft data, do not chase thematic rebounds; anchor firmly to high rates + ongoing geopolitical friction + a new normal of structural inflation.

Yesterday, cryptocurrencies saw a rebound due to CPI data being lower than expected, causing the market to overshoot. BTC briefly broke through 64000. ETH briefly broke through 1880. I believe the market is gradually reaching a peak, and the momentum for further upside is beginning to slow down. I suggest shorting at highs. The overall trend remains up with fluctuations, but no one-sided bull market. Altcoins lack strong hotspots, mostly showing small rebounds from oversold conditions. Participation is not advised.

Technical analysis:

The above chart shows the ETH 4-hour chart: From a technical perspective, the market is beginning to stagnate. It is under significant pressure from prior trapped positions. The 1980-1920 range is a very strong resistance level. The market may begin to adjust downward without even reaching this level. Coupling this with news, inflation is merely cooling on the surface; underlying inflation remains substantial. This is always a long-term struggle. Prices have reached a time node where the market is at odds with inflation. Therefore, with inflation high, prices cannot rise.

Specific operational suggestions for ETH: Start laying out short positions from 1920. For the aggressive trader, 1880 is an entry point. However, ensure your liquidation price is controlled above 2000. This position is unlikely to be reached. The market will decline in the same way it has risen. The first target for profit-taking is set at 1820. The second target for profit-taking is around 1770. Further declines will depend on subsequent market changes. Stay updated on future market trends by following me!

Trading is not just about theoretical discussions but a continuous process of learning and exploration. Achieve results through practice. It is not mere trading for the sake of trading, but aiming for a goal and returning with results. This is the truth that leads us into this market!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。