"Jiangfeng Trading Diary" Issue Three -- The greatest charm of trading lies in its uncertainty!
Yesterday's second issue strategy collectively held positions for Bitcoin at 63300～64600 short and Ethereum at 1800～1880 short, and they are currently still holding! Pay attention to the 1910 position; if it breaks through and holds, our bears will find it difficult to withstand! Give a chance to break even or stay alive is the priority!
Let's discuss today's view: Focus on the resistance in the range of 65400～66000～67000, and for Ethereum, pay attention to the resistance around 1910～1937～1970; if under pressure, we can continue to gamble on another short position!
Yesterday, the CPI data was released, and the unexpected cooling of inflation caused the probability of the Fed's rate hike in July to plunge from 42% to 17%. After the data was released, Bitcoin surged straight from around $62000, breaking the $64000 mark, and peaked at around $65130. Ethereum performed even stronger, nearing $1890. I was actually quite surprised that this data came in so much lower than expected; since it has now risen, and the positions are being held, there is no excuse to push it off anymore. Let's be patient and hold on!
Although the market has significantly lowered expectations for the Fed's rate hike in July, the probability for a September rate hike remains around 60% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Given the current escalating geopolitical situation and economic data, this CPI data seems a bit overly optimistic, so I will not blindly follow the trend to chase the rise but will wait for the market to test the upper resistance again before making a decision!
BTC: Short-term CPI data is favorable, shorts need to be light for speculation! Risk Index 🌟🌟🌟☆☆
Enter short positions near the rebound of 65400～66000～67000, with targets focusing on support below 64500～63600～62000～60000.
ETH:
Enter short positions near the rebound of 1910～1937～1970, with targets focusing on around 1850～1800～1750～1700.
With favorable CPI data, note that shorts should be light; as long as the green mountains remain, there's no fear of not having firewood! Those strategies that were stuck yesterday, hold on if the position isn't heavy; for heavy positions, if it can go down to break even, just protect yourself and exit. Today's strategy can be referenced for those who have no positions!
Jiangfeng: K-line, indicators, are merely the results of the price, not the reasons for the price!
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