1: On Monday, due to U.S. President Trump announcing the restoration of maritime blockade against Iran and threatening to strike Iran's underground nuclear facilities, the U.S. dollar index rose rapidly during the U.S. trading session, ultimately closing up 0.31%, reported at 101.28; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.620%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, closed at 4.296%.
2: As the Middle Eastern conflict intensified market concerns about inflation rebound and the Federal Reserve possibly maintaining "higher for longer" rates, spot gold continued to decline, with an intraday drop of over 100 dollars, briefly falling below the 4000 dollar mark, ultimately closing down 2.85%, reported at 4001.98 dollars per ounce; spot silver ended down 3.66%, reported at 57.66 dollars per ounce.
3: International oil prices soared over nearly 9% on Monday. WTI crude oil began to rise before the U.S. trading session and accelerated upward during the session, ultimately closing up 8.93%, reported at 77.80 dollars per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 9.01%, reported at 82.78 dollars per barrel.
4: The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.26%, the S&P 500 index down 0.79%, and the Nasdaq down 1.55%.
5: The U.S. will blockade Iranian ports starting at 4 AM on the 15th; Trump: will charge a 20% fee on cargo transportation; may take responsibility for managing the Strait of Hormuz in the future.
6: Trump said on Monday Eastern Time that there will be severe strikes on Iran tonight and tomorrow, aiming to destroy the Taqdisan (or Iran's underground nuclear facilities); reaching an agreement with Iran is possible.
7: Iran continues to be attacked in multiple locations, responding with strikes on U.S. military facilities; Houthi forces in Yemen also exchanged attacks with Saudi Arabia, with the capital of Yemen’s international airport being bombed.
8: The Iranian Foreign Ministry: The memorandum of understanding with the United States has entered the "crisis" stage.
News: Current macro core: surface data warming, underlying stagflation hardening. The dual channels in the Middle East are unstable, and geopolitical friction puts long-term pressure on inflation; the Federal Reserve's policy is tightening comprehensively, with preemptive anti-inflation measures and delayed interest rate cut expectations; AI market financial deleveraging, and real demand resilience remain, with thematic valuations under continuous pressure; U.S. political disturbances combined with crowded trading raise market volatility centers and lead to extreme differentiation in styles. Asset principles: the dollar is strongly oscillating at a high level, gold is under short pressure but bullish in the long term for defense, and crypto should only be approached as impulses rather than trends. Trading core: do not trust one-month warm data, do not chase high-priced themes, and adhere to the new normal of high rates + risk premium.
CPI: The current Federal Reserve has zero tolerance for inflation, tightening in advance, and there is a market expectation gap of "surface inflation cooling, core inflation stubborn." CPI is no longer simply watched for ups and downs, focusing instead on whether sticky inflation hardens.
I believe the data released tonight will basically meet expectations. It may even be lower than expected. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will either keep interest rates unchanged or cut rates. Or Trump’s antics may not hold, leading to a significant victory for Iran. Conversely, the gold and crypto markets may remain unstable. In fact, the more severe the situation, the more it reflects that Trump's goals have not yet been achieved; once the U.S. fully controls oil pricing, the low dollar will be even harder to shake. The U.S. can then start harvesting from the world again. That is when this market will truly explode. I believe regardless of the outcome, Trump will not suffer losses, unless he dies. Therefore, I believe the short-term crypto market will continue to rebound. I suggest buying the dips.
From a technical perspective:
The above chart shows the ETH 4-hour level chart: The current price is in a high-level oscillation, where both bulls and bears are wrestling. There is no volume support. Therefore, there is a need for a pullback. A squat is for a better jump. So every pullback is for us to enjoy the gains.
Specific ETH trading suggestions: Go long vigorously and boldly within the range of 1720-1750. There is no target; the long position will end when the Strait of Hormuz opens. If you must say where to look, then around 2100-2200 is absolutely fine. So recently, you should just buy on the dips.
Do not touch altcoins for now. There haven't been many hot topics lately. The good targets are all unloading, trading back and forth. Make the moves when there are better opportunities.
Trading is not just talk; it involves continuous learning and exploration. Achieving results through practice. It's not for the sake of trading itself, but to go with a goal and come back with results. That is the truth of our entry into this market!
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