Large funds bet against popular strong teams, while small funds bet on extreme long shots.

Written by: Maher, Foresight News

On the World Cup stage, as teams fiercely compete for the trophy, a hidden whale quietly makes a fortune in the prediction market.

An account on Polymarket with the nickname swisstony has a total historical profit of 18.62 million dollars, with a profit of 10.33 million dollars in the past month alone. This account was first registered in July 2025, which is not long ago, but due to its astonishing profits, its homepage views have risen to 922,200.

As of July 13, this account has made a total of 139,617 predictions, with a current portfolio value of approximately 606,100 dollars. Notably, its current holdings are almost entirely focused on the FIFA World Cup semi-final match between France and Spain on July 14, 2026. This includes a bet on the French team losing the match, with approximately 160,000 dollars already wagered. Additionally, it has primarily bet on specific score details, focusing on betting NO for a return of 5%-10%.

This address maintains a win rate around 52.9%, with total trading positions exceeding 245,000, and trading volume reaching hundreds of millions. These numbers are among the top tier in the overall Polymarket ecosystem. Public research shows that most retail addresses suffer long-term losses, while a few high-frequency, systematic accounts achieve significant positive returns through large-scale execution. The data win rate of swisstony isn’t extraordinarily high, but combined with its very high trading frequency and position management, it amplifies the positive EV (expected value) advantage.

Since creating the account about a year ago, this address has completed a total of 139,617 prediction operations. On average, this translates to around 380 trades executed daily, 16 trades per hour, operating 24/7 without rest. It is likely that this is driven by an API-powered ultra-high-frequency quantitative trading robot.

Its profile is adorned with the term “trash panda.” In North American culture, raccoons are survival masters that like rummaging through trash bins. This signature accurately encapsulates its core strategy: making money from the vast data garbage and tiny price discrepancies on Polymarket, ultimately building a multi-million dollar empire.

Over 17 Profits Exceeding 1 Million Dollars

Looking at the profit of this address, its astonishing feature is that it has had 17 profits exceeding 1 million dollars, with the largest being a win/loss bet on Germany on June 25. This whale bet NO, earning 2,221,241 dollars, with a profit of 111.67%.

The ROI shown in the screenshot is generally very high, with clear advantages in buying prices. The investment scale is substantial, often in the range of 400,000 to 1,000,000 dollars per transaction.

This whale likes to heavily bet NO (not winning) against overvalued strong teams: Germany, Paraguay (appearing multiple times), England, and Japan. Most buying prices range from 35.8¢ to 53.7¢, with implied win rates for these strong teams at about 46%-64%, but the actual results showed they lost or did not win. This is a typical contrarian strategy.

100 Times Return

In the prediction market, when the market believes something is impossible and it ultimately happens, the profit returns are extremely exaggerated. This whale not only excels at large bets but also demonstrates high proficiency in small bets.

Taking the matches shown in the figure as an example, the buying prices are very low: 0.2¢–1.2¢ (market implied probability only 0.2%–1.2%), with invested funds mostly around a few thousand dollars, yet each contribution yields over 100,000 dollars in profit.

These events, initially deemed almost impossible by the market, actually occurred, allowing the account to obtain high returns with minimal costs.

Using small funds to position in extremely low probability events is akin to a "lottery style" but executed systematically. Once successful, it can contribute profits of 100,000+ dollars at a very low cost, providing a significant boost to overall profits. Although these high-multiple trades carry low risk capital per transaction, their win rates are extremely low. The majority of similar bets would lose everything.

Even though most of these bets will lose (as the probabilities are indeed very low), just hitting a few occasionally can significantly boost total profits without heavily depleting the principal.

Overall, this account is very likely to automate systems that cover a large number of long shots and low liquidity markets, where severe mispricing is more likely to occur, and then implement a parallel dual-track strategy to profit.

Large funds bet against popular strong teams, while small funds bet on extreme long shots. The combination of both guarantees stable large profits while enhancing overall return rates through high-multiple trading.