Author:Serenity

Personally, I believe that $SIVE has the potential to become the next $LITE.

In just the past few months, we have seen:

1. Collaboration with O-Net driving ELS into mass production

2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signal, using Sivers' pluggable module has a “relatively significant moat”

3. $GFS SCALE reference-grade laser, targeting ultra-large-scale cloud service providers, supporting pluggable modules, NPO, CPO

-> -> $AMD and other companies seeking CPO at GFS

4. Ayar joins $NVDA NVLink for CPO

-> -> Removing Lumentum/Macom from its website, likely adopting Sivers as the main laser supplier

-> -> AlChip likely winning from Amazon's Trainium pricing (Ayar's client)

-> -> GUC collaborating with Ayar on rack-level design

-> -> Raising $500 million for mass production from AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA

5. ~ $AEVA will launch high-capacity manufacturing in the second half of 2026

6. $POET will launch high-capacity manufacturing in the second half of 2026, in collaboration with ultra-large-scale cloud service provider suppliers like Lumilens (“top three ultra-large-scale cloud service provider initial customers”)

7. TFLN + $SIVE CW laser collaborating with Lightium

8. Likely to establish direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO field players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter

9. In quarterly earnings reports, following multiple undisclosed new relationships for pluggable modules from Jabil

According to Trendforce's latest report, $AMD and other ultra-large-scale cloud service providers are attempting to procure long-term agreements for CW laser sources, which directly catalyzes the development of independent CW sources.

Thus, when ultra-large-scale cloud service provider suppliers are incentivized to mass produce as much as possible from Jabil to O-Net: this is very important for Sivers in terms of revenue relative to current valuations, looking like a waiting game.

Even in the past week:

- $SIVE completed oversubscribed institutional funding round for capacity enhancement…this is very subtle as Sivers operates in a fab-lite model, so there will be no internal foundry capital spending to expand capacity. Most likely targeting Win Semi, etc., for laser expansion + foundry allocation

Therefore, this likely signals that a significant increase in revenue is imminent.

- Sivers also mentioned the goal of completing NASDAQ listing in the upcoming quarters (my estimated timeframe could be the second half of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027)

This would provide funding for merger and acquisition efforts, as the financing environment in the local Swedish market is not feasible.

As for becoming the next $LITE:

Mergers and acquisitions will make their lasers more valuable, thus downstream IP acquisitions -> turning to contract manufacturing like $FN and others to manufacture complete 1.6T pluggable modules or optical engines. This is how they achieve their goals, as people base modeling on laser array ASP expansion, which won’t support valuations over $60 billion.

In the meantime, there will be lots of bridging architectures like NPO/pluggable modules, as well as noise around delays on certain architectures.

But the market misunderstands the role of laser companies like $LITE, $SIVE, $AAOI, etc., which are used for different architectures, not just for certain passive optical components.

Thus, the market sees the “CPO delay headlines,” and algorithmic sell-offs benefit laser companies tied to other architectures.

Being incorporated into pluggable 1.6T scaling to CPO expansion (with Sivers included) helps bridge the revenue wait gap until the scaling inflection point in the second half of 2027.

I personally hold long-term, as I have never seen a company valued at about $1.4 billion establishing mappings with so many ultra-large-scale cloud service providers.

TLDR:

- Waiting for capacity expansion of different architectures to unfold in ultra-large-scale cloud service provider mappings

-> 1.6T LRO/CPO expansion to launch in late second half of 2026, entering high-capacity expansion in 2027

-> CPO scaling capacity expansion in the second half of 2027

- Waiting for NASDAQ listing likely in the second half of 2026/first quarter of 2027 to fully initiate merger and acquisition efforts, unless Sivers becomes more creative with equity financing in the interim.

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