Galaxy Digital has cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to a coin toss, warning that the U.S. Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its five-week August recess. "We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50," wrote Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, in a tweet Friday.

The downgrade extends a steady slide. Galaxy pegged the odds at 75% in May, cut them to 60% on June 9, and has now landed at even money. Prediction market Polymarket is gloomier still, pricing 2026 passage near 49%, down from highs of 74% a month ago.

Thorn stressed that the problem is timing, not content. There is still no unified Senate text, no firm floor schedule, and a shrinking window before lawmakers scatter for the summer. Competition for floor time "intensified," he said, after President Trump abruptly refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill until Congress passes the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections measure. Surveillance and defense bills are also jostling for attention.

A falling probability isn't necessarily bad news, argued Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey. "The drop in the probability of passage this time is merely a matter of time delay rather than the rejection of the proposal's actual content," he told Decrypt, noting that prediction markets have priced sub-50% odds since May, a view "somewhat more pessimistic than institutional forecasts."

The main issue, Sun said, is that the housing bill, the SAVE Act, and other priorities "continue to occupy the Senate schedule." Without a clear voting path before the recess, he warned, the bill could slip into "a more complex mid-term election environment." But its odds could recover quickly, he added, if a final text is released in July and Senate leaders provide a schedule.

The stakes for crypto are high, he added, pointing to a trading environment “characterized by ETF outflows and weakening risk appetite." The CLARITY Act “remains one of the few domestic U.S. policy catalysts that could potentially improve market sentiment.”



The bill would establish the first comprehensive U.S. framework for digital assets, dividing oversight between the CFTC and SEC. It passed the House in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May, but only two Democrats backed it, short of the seven needed to clear a 60-vote floor threshold. Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren want ethics provisions targeting Trump's crypto ventures, while banks and law enforcement groups have pushed back over stablecoin yield and illicit-finance gaps.

For now, the bill's fate is tangled in the same crowded calendar stalling other measures, including the housing bill Trump is holding up over his elections demand. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Fox Business last Wednesday that a final CLARITY text could surface around July 4.

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