Before the headwinds in the entire macro market stop pressuring, the 60,000 dollar level may need to be regarded as a resistance level rather than support.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

After the baptism last night, Bitcoin's attempt to rebound above 60,000 dollars has failed. U.S. macro data put pressure across the board, forcing the market to abandon interest rate cut expectations and even begin to prepare for rate hikes.

The data released last night showed that inflation stickiness was far beyond expectations, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in May.

Meanwhile, the number of initial unemployment claims fell to 215,000, and durable goods orders excluding transportation equipment increased by 1.3%, further weakening the logic that economic weakness would force the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy due to employment and demand resilience.

The narrative that soft data, which the market previously anticipated, would drive a rebound in risk assets has temporarily fallen through.

As the U.S. dollar index broke through the 101 mark and U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, tightening financial conditions directly withdrew the last bit of liquidity that the crypto market relied on for its rise.

Bitcoin collapsed from an intraday high to around 58,000 dollars. Data showed that approximately 482 million dollars was liquidated across the market within 1 hour last night, with long positions accounting for 427 million dollars; the total liquidation amount over 24 hours reached around 1 billion dollars, affecting more than 176,000 traders.

More critically, this round of decline was driven by the spot market. CryptoQuant showed that when the price fell below 60,000 dollars, large exchanges saw sell orders of 470 million dollars within one minute, with total sell orders exceeding 1.2 billion dollars in one hour; if the data is accurate, this means that those who truly hold are systematically reducing their positions.

Moreover, as we analyzed earlier, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow for six consecutive weeks, with total withdrawals accumulating to about 6 billion dollars. The pattern of ETFs stepping in to support the market during previous declines seems to have been broken.

Worse still, the market has fully priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before October, fundamentally reversing the valuation logic for risk assets.

Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's current price is about 23% lower than the real market average of 77,000 dollars, having entered a structural bear market range. The lower benchmark is 53,400 dollars, which is the average holding cost line across the market.

The cost baseline for short-term holders has fallen to around 71,000 dollars, which is one of the few slightly positive signals, indicating that the holding cost for new buyers is moving downward.

If the market can see a short-term rebound, it still faces clear structural obstacles. The range of 66,800 to 70,700 dollars is stacked with a large number of floating loss positions from short-term holders; once the price touches that area, the selling pressure to break even will be concentrated.

A true trend reversal requires the buyers to have the strength to digest this supply area and stabilize above 71,000 dollars, which is the cost line for short-term holders.

Of course, if the outflow of ETF funds slows down and U.S. buyers return to the market, there will be a foundation for the rebound to challenge the large number of trapped positions above.

At the beginning of this week, ETFs recorded a net inflow of nearly 40 million dollars, the first positive fund flow in several weeks; while it cannot confirm a trend, it is a marginal change worth tracking.

If spot selling restarts and ETF redemptions continue to recover, then the current price of Bitcoin may still have room to fall.

Although Bitcoin's current price is relatively attractive in terms of valuation, buyer confidence is far from restored.

Before the headwinds in the entire macro market stop pressuring, the 60,000 dollar level may need to be regarded as a resistance level rather than support.