Author: Citrini Research

Translation: ShenChao TechFlow

ShenChao Introduction: While analysts across the market are calculating how much HBM and Taiwanese glass data centers lack, what is truly scarce is the "attention" itself. Three years of AI narratives have led to capital overcrowding, but other parts of the world are still turning: for example, the life sciences cycle has already bottomed out, aging real estate is overcrowded, and sports venue tickets are sold out. These forgotten sectors are quietly repairing their fundamentals... For investors, the biggest Alpha right now may not lie on the AGI timeline, but in those "small themes" that no one is modeling.

Note: The following is a compilation of key content from Citrini Research's latest report. The original text is paid content, and this article is based on its public summary and multiple sources.

Attention Tax

Did you know? Computing power, electricity, HBM, NAND, concrete and transformers used for building data centers, that special Taiwanese glass, and the alphabet soup technologies that convert light into data are all in short supply.

Yes, you surely know. But in the shortage caused by AI, there is an even more scarce factor of input: attention.

Every marginal hour of analyst brainpower (or so-called analyst token budget) has been pulled toward a single trade. We deeply understand this, as most of our time in the past three years has been tracking (and occasionally shaping) that narrative.

But shortsightedness comes at a cost; we feel it’s time to cast our gaze a bit wider.

The AI trade—at least—has become very crowded, even if it is the right one. We believe that the risk of "AI fatigue" is high, and we may see a certain degree of capital rotation towards things that people seem to no longer care about.

The mechanism we care about is quite simple: capital flows into a theme while peripheral targets are underweighted, which is interesting in itself. These targets may also be under-modeled and ignored.

We mentioned this when discussing the life sciences cycle— in our view, that cycle has already bottomed out. Five years ago, we would see these stocks rebound at the lows, reflecting the upcoming upward cycle in advance. But now they have been stuck in the mire at 52-week lows because no one wants to transfer risks during the destocking recovery period; after all, "DRAM is the bottleneck."

The world is still turning, and the gap between forgotten expectations and the changing reality has always been the place to make money in thematic investments. Attention is a limited resource, but it can quickly shift in ordinary momentum reversals. Sometimes when it shifts, it brings new focal points into investor consciousness, even if momentum swings back up.

We are revisiting our "small themes"—those trends and catalyst-driven trades that are not market disruption stories at a decade level. Instead, they are interesting, low-radar narratives in less popular sectors that may bring surprises. Five themes, none of which require you to have an opinion on the AGI timeline or tokenomics. The baby boomer generation is moving into nursing homes. Sports venue tickets are sold out. A twenty-year exchange monopoly is facing real competition for the first time. Fintech recovery. And airline stocks, two of our favorite names, were punished for eighteen months for reasons unrelated to their profitability.

Our macro view is that the market will continue to rise, but we will also see a noticeable increase in 10-15% sharp declines, driven more by positions than fundamentals. This means we should hold onto semiconductor targets, but they might not be the only ones on the map. Over the past month, we have been gradually reducing our AI allocations because everyone with access has donned the hat of a bottleneck investor, and we are increasingly interested in what remains post-AI Dutch disease.

Theme One: Airline Stocks, Punished for 18 Months, Unrelated to Profitability

Citrini is bullish on Delta and United, and this judgment has lasted for more than two years. In November 2024, they published an analysis of the airline industry's "structural reset," believing these two mainline carriers would be the winners.

Two years later, Citrini remains optimistic. The report indicates that the decline of these two stocks over the past 18 months has been almost entirely driven by macro factors—first inflation worries triggered by tariffs, followed by the Iran war pushing up oil prices, which has nothing to do with the airlines' profitability.

According to Business Insider, Citrini believes that as the economy emerges from the shadow of tariff inflation and oil price shocks, the growth prospects of these two companies remain strong. The report highlights a key trend: the K-shaped economy is exacerbating divergence, and mainline carriers are not only not resisting this divergence but are actively embracing it—leaning toward upscale offerings and increasing revenue per customer.

Additionally, the 2026 World Cup is seen as a short-term catalyst, with global events driving multinational travel demand that will directly benefit airline stocks.

Theme Two: Senior Housing, 56% Growth in Population Aged 80 and Over in Ten Years, Supply Far Insufficient

Citrini's second theme points to a market that is not sexy but is sufficiently certain: senior housing.

The core data is very solid: the population aged 80 and over in the U.S. is expected to grow by over 56% in the next decade, far exceeding the overall population growth rate of about 5%. Just in 2026 alone, there will be an additional 1 million households aged 80 and over, and by 2029 this number will double to 2 million.

The supply on the facility side is far from keeping up. Citrini points out that this industry is overlooked largely because it lacks the flashiness—facing AI and semiconductors, it lacks allure. But the baby boomer generation is collectively entering old age, which is a purely population structure-driven trend that does not rely on any policy assumptions or technological breakthroughs.

According to Business Insider, Citrini has identified three targets: senior housing REITs Welltower and Janus Living, and operator Brookdale Senior Living.

Theme Three: Live Entertainment, The Best Asset Class of the Last Decade, Surpassing Tech Stocks

Citrini regards live entertainment as the best-performing asset class of the past decade, even surpassing tech stocks.

The core argument of the report is: "Being there" itself is becoming a luxury. Consumers are willing to pay a high premium to be present, and sports franchises, concerts, fighting events, and even cinemas are all benefiting from this desire for "real presence." Citrini wrote: "Sports franchises, and more broadly all offline activities, are benefitting from people's desire to 'be there.' This is followed by greater opportunities for monetization through attendance rates, upscale offerings, and promotions."

According to Business Insider, Citrini specifically mentioned three companies:

TKO Group is the parent company of WWE and UFC, with the report emphasizing its strong financial growth and high-value partnerships. Cinemark reflects the trend of consumers returning to cinemas. And IMAX represents the direction of upgraded viewing experiences—audiences want more than just to watch a movie; they seek an immersive experience. IMAX's stock price hit an all-time high earlier this month.

Theme Four: Exchange Monopoly Competition, CME's Twenty-Year Domination Faces True Rivals for the First Time

The most institutionally focused theme in the Citrini report points to the fracture in the U.S. futures exchange landscape.

CME Group holds about 98% market share in U.S. interest rate derivatives, a nearly absolute monopoly maintained for over twenty years. However, the emergence of FMX Futures Exchange is changing this landscape.

FMX, incubated by BGC Group (founded by current U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick), received CFTC approval in January 2024 and will officially launch trading in the second half of 2025. Its shareholder list is akin to a Wall Street all-star lineup: Bank of America, Barclays, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jump Trading, Morgan Stanley, Tower Research Capital, and Wells Fargo all hold minority stakes, valued at approximately $667 million.

FMX's competition strategy is threefold: lower trading fees, a partnership with LCH to provide margin savings, and incentive plans targeting liquidity providers. In February 2025, FMX set a record of 9,500 contracts traded in a single day.

CME is not without its flaws. Just last week (June 22), the CME Direct platform experienced a four-hour outage, marking not the first instance of infrastructure disruption. FMX has publicly stated that CME's near-monopoly status makes such incidents a systemic risk, and the market needs a reliable alternative exchange to ensure resilience.

Of course, the path for disruptors is not easy. During the tariff turmoil in April 2025, FMX's trading volume plummeted by more than two-thirds, as traders instinctively returned to the deeper liquidity of CME amid increased volatility. However, as the market normalizes, FMX's trading volume has gradually recovered. Bank of America estimates that CME earns about $2 billion from Treasury-related business alone, a profit pool large enough to warrant long-term investment from challengers.

Theme Five: Fintech Recovery, The Most Suppressed Sector of 2026 Is Coming Back

Citrini's fifth theme is fintech.

Fintech stocks are among the worst-performing sectors in 2026. As of the end of May, SoFi had fallen about 35% year-to-date, while Robinhood and Upstart were each down about 25%. However, significant signs of recovery began to appear in late May.

The catalyst for SoFi is the launch of SoFiUSD stablecoin, becoming the first U.S. chartered bank to issue its own stablecoin. On the day of the news, its stock jumped 12% in one day. On the fundamentals front, SoFi's Q1 2026 revenues reached $1.1 billion, with record loan issuance of $12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68%, and the number of members has reached 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto described this as a "strategic entry into the digital assets field," and is collaborating with Mastercard to develop global payment settlement capabilities.

Robinhood has completed a U-shaped recovery after experiencing a downturn in 2022-2023, with full-year revenues in 2025 growing by 45% and net profits doubling. Acquisitions of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp, launching the Gold credit card, and increasing Gold subscription users to 4.3 million are all driving its transition from a "trading app" to a "financial super app."

Upstart underwent a leadership change in May, with co-founder Paul Gu taking over as CEO, and the narrative of the AI lending platform has also regained market attention during the same period.

Citrini's logic is clear: when everyone is focusing on semiconductors and data centers, fintech has been forgotten to the extreme valuation levels. But the fundamentals of these companies have not deteriorated; rather, they are improving. Once attention shifts even slightly, the rebound potential is considerable.