The originally expected support level of 60,000 dollars has evolved into a critical test of buying strength.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has broken below the 60,000 dollar mark, dropping over 3% within 24 hours, and has accumulated a decline of 16% this month.

The originally expected support level of 60,000 dollars has evolved into a critical test of buying strength.

The weak demand side is the core reason for this round of decline, and it is concentrated in the North American market.

In the past month, Bitcoin has had a cumulative return rate of -15% during U.S. trading hours, which were originally the main source of institutional buying, but have instead become the main source of selling pressure. This contrasts sharply with the U.S. friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, as favorable policies have not translated into actual buying power.

The outflow of funds from the compliant ETF channels further confirms the decline in demand. In the past 30 days, the net redemption scale of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached 6.35 billion dollars, setting a record high within the statistical period. Both single-day and 7-day capital flows are negative, indicating that the core demand channel that was absorbing selling pressure continues to suffer significant losses.

At the same time, the Coinbase premium index remains in the negative range of -0.13, indicating that U.S. investors are unwilling to buy at prices higher than the market, reflecting an overall weak willingness from domestic buyers.

On the supply side, pressure directly triggered the break below 60,000 dollars. During the panic selling period, about 7,600 BTC flowed into large exchanges, corresponding to a potential selling pressure of nearly 480 million dollars. While sellable chips were gathering at exchanges, the absorbing power weakened, causing the imbalance of supply and demand to turn what would normally be a support test into a breaking market.

Additionally, concentrated liquidations of leverage further amplified the decline. After Bitcoin broke below 61,000 dollars, significant long positions began to actively close; after the price broke through 60,000 dollars, a continuous liquidation of long positions was triggered around 59,000, accelerating the downturn with passive selling pressure.

Currently, the proportion of long liquidations remains high, with leveraged buyers bearing the main losses, but attention should be paid to the new longs attracted by any brief rebounds, as they may become a new source of selling pressure in subsequent declines.

The next key risk point in the market is at 57,300 dollars. This price level has accumulated a large amount of leveraged positions, and if it breaks below, it will trigger more concentrated forced liquidations, potentially leading to a new round of accelerated decline.

The options market also reflects downward expectations in advance: there are 1.1 billion dollars in positions concentrated at the 60,000 dollar strike price, and a total of 1.4 billion dollars in exposures distributed in the 50,000 - 55,000 dollar range, indicating that market attention has shifted from rebounds to preventing deep corrections.

As for the subsequent market trend, it cannot yet be determined that a continuous decline will occur, but any rebound seems very weak. The buying and selling forces are currently in a state of weak balance, with buyers not yet showing any initiative to reverse the downward trend.

Three core signals for determining stabilization are: first, a slowdown in the influx of BTC into exchanges, meaning selling pressure is no longer continuously increasing; second, ETF funds stop flowing out and gradually flow back in, restoring institutional demand; third, the pressure from long liquidations eases, and leverage clearing approaches its end.

If the above signals do not appear in a timely manner, the 60,000 dollar support will confirm its invalidation, and the market is likely to test the 57,300 dollar liquidation point; conversely, if it recovers above 60,000 dollars along with stabilizing capital, then this decline will be more about panic liquidations rather than a trend break.

Once again, it's time to exchange "Good Afternoon," as tonight's PCE data may become a "straw," but it is still unknown whether it will crush the camel or save it.