Author: 0xGeeGee, Chaos Labs Researcher
Translation: Yuliya, PANews
Editor's Note: Chaos Labs researcher 0xGeeGee recently published an in-depth long tweet, outlining thoughts on the current and upcoming market for the next week, covering changes in the big trend of AI, potential projects in the RWA track, shorting opportunities brought by space concept stocks and the adjustment of the NASDAQ 100 index, as well as the current development of new banks in cryptocurrency. Below is the translated text:
Here, I share some new ideas to summarize this week and kick off next week’s trading. I still have some old positions I have held for a long time (like HYPE, BTC/MSTR, VELO/AERO), and I won’t comment too much on that, but my core trading logic remains unchanged.
I. The Big Trend of AI in 2026 and Beyond: Fable Ban and Trading Opportunities
Let me first repeat a point I am convinced of, which will shape the development pattern of AI this year and even in the next few years (at least in terms of market sentiment, practical applications are still hard to say, as everything is still too new).
This core view is: AI is entering a reckoning of economic benefits.
In the past, enterprises' mindset towards investing in large language models (LLM) was "invest as much as possible," but now, with more and more long-term users of LLM who maintain an objective awareness appearing, traditional companies are beginning to realize an important reality: a lack of effective organizational management may lead to an apparent increase in productivity while failing to achieve real efficiency.
Thus, companies are now increasingly focusing on enhancing "organizational management capability": making expenditures transparent, clarifying which ones are productive and which are ineffective, how to maximize the utilization of each expenditure, and how to recycle the results of past investments. Essentially, we are rediscovering the importance of diligence, which businesses are quite clear about in other areas but consider unnecessary in AI expenditures.
Next, let’s talk about specific trading ideas. I missed the trading opportunity brought by the Fable ban before because I wasn’t fully awake at the time, and I thought the conclusions people immediately reached were a bit foolish (if you try to provide sneaky ways to bypass the ban, you will be severely punished, which is definitely not a good thing). However, rationally speaking, a more reasonable logic is that this matter will draw more attention from the market towards decentralized models and privacy protection (whether during model training or inference).
This theme just happens to resonate with the previously mentioned "efficiency" theme, as everyone knows that the unit cost of intelligent open-source models is generally 90% lower than that of traditional models, even though their performance has not yet reached that of top-tier frontier models.
So am I preparing to strongly promote $VVV or $TAO? Or am I gearing up to push for $PRL?
Absolutely not. Although there are several upcoming tokens worthy of attention, I cannot confidently recommend an asset with massive release pressure (TAO), an asset that has already risen 20 times (VVV), or a project whose core selling point is "it's like Bitcoin, but you have to mine it through inference/AI work" (PRL).
1a: EigenCloud and DarkBloom
However, I do have two ideas in this space.
The first is $EIGEN (don’t rush, put down the rotten tomatoes you are getting ready to throw...). Eigenlayer could be said to be the most disappointing project of the 2023 cycle; I dare say that the disillusionment with re-staking has largely contributed to the current low sentiment around Ethereum (it has also diverted a lot of funds that could have flowed elsewhere).
The reason I mention it is that Eigenlayer has essentially transitioned from pure re-staking and DA (data availability) to EigenCloud. If you still feel confused after hearing this (to be honest, that’s quite normal), then I want to emphasize their newly launched product: DarkBloom.
Simply put: it is an AI inference version of Airbnb based on the computing power of Mac computers, with privacy and verification mechanisms layered underneath.
In addition, they have other moves (such as the ECSDA Fail, which is pretty cool; everyone can check it out). Even if you think these entry points are too narrow, don’t forget that EIGEN is no longer that $20 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV) giant; its current FDV is actually only around $35 million (okay, although there are still $7.25 million of unlocks every month… but we can turn a blind eye to that).
After the ELIP-12 proposal, EIGEN also has the chance to start capturing some actual revenue (including 100% net revenue from EigenAI, EigenCloud, EigenDA, and 20% of income from the AVS security service network).
In summary, at this position, I am bullish on EIGEN and have already bought some.
1b: OpenServ
The second project is OpenServ (token symbol $SERV).
I won’t spend too much time on this project as I have discussed it many times before. Essentially, it is an inference/orchestration layer for Agents. Very few altcoins can simultaneously meet so many of my screening criteria:
Good narrative and practical business
Has actual implementation (including traditional enterprises outside of crypto)
Token has a clear revenue capture path
Regarding the last point: customers can purchase inference credits with USD or USDC, and 25% of the SERV inference API revenue will be used to repurchase and destroy SERV tokens in the market. Moreover, the official statement indicates that 25% of the Build business revenue, 25% of Launchpad liquidity pool trading fees, and 25% of enterprise-level/B2B integration revenue will also be used for buybacks and burning.
Everything looks very positive and promising; my only concern is that the discussions surrounding this project are a bit too vocal, which is often not a good sign in investments. But I am still willing to hold it and join this train.
II. RWA: Credit and Tokenized Stocks
This may be another topic that will be repeatedly drilled into us until we are sick of it (just like last year, AI and RWA, RWA and AI, with a sprinkle of privacy concepts in between).
2a: Morpho
In terms of credit tokenization and various yield-bearing assets, everyone is now very clear that $MORPHO has become the industry leader in this field (although opinions remain reserved regarding some specific markets being built by curators— but that’s okay). It not only received an investment from Apollo in February this year but also recently completed a new round of financing led by a16z, Paradigm, and Ribbit.
Currently, the dynamics of the MORPHO token are already an open secret, and there’s no need to hide it: the out-of-band trades (OTC) that the team internally funded clearly will not directly drive the secondary market price. However, as long as these (currently semi-public) trading terms are as favorable as they appear, the market's attention towards the token indicates that future conditions may change—holding it may no longer merely be a trophy or medal associated with another transaction but have more substantial significance.
2b: Backpack Securities
In the RWA space, another token worth our close attention is $BP (hope this doesn’t become a local top I shout after secretly enjoying a big surge).
Although I have never used their exchange (and I’m not particularly interested in it), as long as you aren’t blind, you can see that their tokenization attempts are garnering considerable influence. The circulating market value of this token is still under $100 million, giving it full potential to pump.
It is important to emphasize that Backpack is not just an exchange, nor just a wallet.
Backpack Securities is actually a legitimate brokerage that allows you to bi-directionally tokenize the assets you hold and supports bi-directional transfers with other brokerages. Although shareholder-related features are still in development, I hope they will go live soon. I don’t particularly like this team, but the bullish logic for this project is very clear.
Especially in the Solana ecosystem, apart from the recent JTO (and JTX), there haven't been any real super winners for a long time. And this project elegantly meets multiple selection criteria I have.
Moreover, now is an excellent time to seize the spotlight since many other so-called "tokenization" projects are essentially concocting some ethereal multi-layer synthetic garbage or wildly promoting grand visions of Pre-IPO, only to deliver worthless results in the end.
2c: Other Projects of Interest
With reverse mergers in traditional finance being vigorously prepared, Securitize's $CEPT is clearly a very noteworthy barometer.
Finally, I want to take a moment to strongly promote Variational: this exchange is indeed fantastic (in fact, due to its wide variety of trading offerings, it is currently my favorite platform for short-term daily trading). They have recently started introducing RWA assets. Although the scale of the assets currently offered is not large enough and the bid-ask spreads can sometimes be unsatisfactory, it undeniably enriches its already comprehensive asset coverage.
I really like Variational (and it’s great to earn some points).
Perhaps we can also add $PLUME to the RWA segment. It looks like they have finally found their footing, and are advancing well in business expansion (for instance, recent integrations with platforms like GRVT and Bybit), and the K-line chart also has the potential to form a beautiful rounded bottom; let’s wait and see.
III. Space Concept Stocks and New Members of the NASDAQ 100 Index
I will keep this part brief as I have already hinted at the core logic.
SpaceX has begun to ramp up its efforts. And $RKLB (Rocket Lab) has long served as its shadow stock/Beta asset, even being recently included in the NASDAQ 100 index.
Over the past five years, newly included stocks in the NASDAQ 100 index have averaged a performance that beats QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF) by about 37% within the 120 days before inclusion; and their performance tends to continue lagging QQQ in the 120 days after inclusion (usually accompanied by a drop in absolute price).
Due to the additional catalyst brought by SpaceX, RKLB has previously become a striking case of outperforming the market; therefore, I expect it to become an extreme example of underperforming the market after its official inclusion.
Currently, the put options I bought have finally gone in-the-money, and I have also separately established a short position. I have looked for other similarly perfect targets to complement this "SpaceX favorable news running out" short idea, but it's hard to find anything better.
Another stock I am closely watching is $CRWV. Although it has nothing to do with SpaceX, like RKLB, it is also a new member that will be officially included in the index on June 22 and is very popular among retail investors in this cycle.
IV. Lastly: New Crypto Banks (NeoBanks)
With the announcement of P1 (Plasma One), $XPL experienced a surge, which also boosted several smaller "crypto new bank" tokens but did not result in a broad increase in all projects.
Personally, although I benefited from the surge of XPL and I am a huge fan, I do not have enough confidence that this will translate into widespread buying in the entire new bank sector. Therefore, I will not open any new positions on this narrative (apart from the XPL I currently have locked up, I do not intend to add any positions).
I quite like their debit cards and might register for a paid service.
Recently, I have been going back and forth between P1 and EtherFi, but ultimately I stayed longer with P1 mainly because its user experience is much smoother. Its benefits are also better.
However, now that EtherFi has launched a zero-fee promotion for euro spending, while P1's 3% cashback for spending is about to become a paid threshold, these two projects (and their respective tokens) actually have their own merits and are worth discussing.
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