On the night of June 18, the Federal Reserve offered the market not a familiar "high-level consolidation" script, but a dot plot that put the option of raising interest rates back on the table: Among the 18 officials who submitted forecasts for 2026, 9 supported future rate hikes, including 1 who advocated a cumulative increase of 75 basis points; correspondingly, the median core PCE inflation expectations were raised sharply from 2.7%, 2.2%, 2.0% in March to 3.3%, 2.5%, 2.1%, acknowledging that inflation is stickier than previously imagined. Foreign media pointed out that under the external shock of the Iranian war driving up oil prices, nearly half of the decision-makers no longer believe that "maintaining current rates will bring inflation back to 2%," which means that the interest rate market, which was widely betting on "only a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year" before this meeting, must rewrite its curve: higher, maintained longer policy rates not only elevate short-end dollar returns but also reprice the discount rates of all high-volatility risk assets through global dollar liquidity compression. For BTC and ETH, which are viewed as risk assets by institutions, this is not just an emotional "hawkish" stance, but an overall increase in the risk-free rate in valuation models, raising the relative attractiveness of dollar assets and lowering dollar-denominated on-chain returns, forcing a balance of funds between "earning interest" and "speculating on appreciation" to lean towards the former.

The Iranian war raises oil prices, the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations spiral out of control

This time, pushing the mood in Washington's conference room towards a "sense of inflation out of control" was not just domestic data from the United States. Foreign media closely monitored the oil price curve following the Iranian conflict while contrasting it with the latest forecasts: the Federal Reserve raised the core PCE median from 2.7%, 2.2%, 2.0% in March to 3.3%, 2.5%, 2.1% overall. Energy costs transmitted through transportation, manufacturing, and other chains are seen as typical input inflation triggers, and the risk of a second-round effect from "high oil prices—high wages—high service prices" has been directly incorporated into this steeper inflation path. Waller admitted at the meeting, "Current inflation is far above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, and persistently high prices are a burden," essentially publicly announcing that the previous narrative of "inflation will automatically slide down to the target" can no longer hold.

The dot plot illustrates how this sense of losing control tears through internally. Of the 19 officials, 18 submitted forecasts for 2026: 9 support future rate hikes, 8 advocate for maintaining rates, and only 1 supports a slight cut of 25 basis points; within the hiking faction, there is 1 demand for a cumulative increase of 75 basis points, 5 support an increase of 50 basis points, and 3 support an increase of 25 basis points. Almost half of the officials no longer believe that "as long as we keep rates at the current high level, inflation will naturally return to 2%," but advocate for more aggressive tightening to offset inflation's stickiness. For the interest rate market, this means the earlier pricing of "symbolic 25 basis point hikes by the end of the year" is forced to be rewritten, with the path shifting from "lowering rates after high-level consolidation" to an open script of "continuing to add if necessary"; for BTC and ETH, classified as high-volatility risk assets, this inflation re-pricing driven by geopolitical shocks, coupled with a more hawkish rate distribution, effectively raises both the risk-free rate and the risk premium thresholds, amplifying their sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation patience.

Interest rate hike options restarted: rewriting the dollar rate story

The dot plot ripped apart the old script. Among the 18 officials, 9 support rate hikes in 2026, 8 oppose rate hikes, and only 1 is willing to preemptively cut rates by 25 basis points in the face of inflation, with even 1 official directly betting on a cumulative hike of 75 basis points. This means that the market's previous consensus of "a symbolic 25 basis points hike by the end of the year is the peak" has been sidelined, and what is truly on the table is an upward opening interest rate path. Nearly half of the rate hawks are pushing the center of the entire interest rate distribution upwards, effectively raising the future real interest rate mean and widening the interest differential between the dollar and other currencies. The choice in the global funding space has become: to continue staying invested in high-volatility assets to speculate on beta, or to return to dollar assets with more certain returns to collect thicker interest.

For dollar-pegged tokens that use short-term treasuries and bills as collateral assets, such a re-pricing of rates is in itself an "invisible rate hike": the same dollar-pegged asset can lock in a higher coupon off-chain, allowing holders to obtain more attractive returns without bearing the price risk of BTC and ETH. The result is that the magnetism of off-chain dollar assets strengthens, and on-chain funds are more likely to choose to reduce leverage and return to dollar positions during periods of heightened volatility. More critically, Waller, rarely, declined to submit his personal dot plot, publicly stating that forward guidance "is not very suitable for the current situation," effectively telling the market: do not expect the Federal Reserve to script things in advance, everything depends on the data. The interest rate path has shifted from a "commitment-based" to a "data-driven" approach, meaning that each data point on inflation, employment, or oil prices can trigger a reimagination of the dot plot path, and this uncertainty itself will amplify interest rate and exchange rate volatility, transferring through dollar financing costs to the pricing models of BTC and ETH, forcing crypto traders to view the macro data calendar as a new risk hub.

BTC and ETH: Chip contests in a high-rate cycle

The dot plot has put "further rate hikes" back on the table, effectively raising the floor for the risk-free rate. For non-cash-flowing BTC and ETH, this directly increases holding costs—the valuations that investors previously were willing to pay for the "liquidity premium" must now compete with thicker dollar interest. The adjusted core PCE expectations of 3.3%, 2.5%, 2.1% signal longer periods of tight monetary conditions, as the reliability of U.S. short-end interest rates increases, making it increasingly difficult for investors to convince themselves to continue holding substantial amounts of non-yielding crypto assets.

In institutional asset allocation, BTC and ETH are included in the same basket as tech stocks—"high-volatility risk assets." Historical experience shows that once monetary policy enters a phase of aggressive or persistently tight conditions, the valuation compression for high-beta assets is often the harshest: not because the fundamentals collapse suddenly, but rather because risk budgets are squeezed out by interest rates, leading to the first sell-off of the most liquid assets. Now, with the Federal Reserve no longer providing clear forward guidance, but instead "taking it step by step based on data," the trading focus for BTC and ETH has also changed: from betting on one-sided liquidity easing to making volatility trades around FOMC, inflation, employment, and oil price nodes, with holding coins themselves becoming a bet on the uncertainty of future interest rate paths.

Rising dollar returns, stablecoins as a safe haven or ammunition

The dot plot turned hawkish, briefly pulling the focus from BTC and ETH back to the most traditional dollar yields. Before the meeting, the interest rate market had already "resigned" to a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year. Now, with overall revisions of inflation expectations and nine officials directly incorporating "rate hikes" into the dot plot, the market has been forced to accept a more expensive dollar: short-end yield returns are elevated, amplifying the opportunity cost advantages of holding dollar assets. For crypto funds holding high-volatility chips, this means that remaining in zero-yield on-chain assets not only requires enduring valuation volatility, but also sacrificing the certainty of returns from dollar interest.

Ironically, this round of rising interest returns initially benefits those token issuers that hold reserves in U.S. treasuries, short-term bills, and cash equivalents—higher coupons theoretically yield thicker margins on the asset side. For market funds, they become a natural "transfer station" during macro narrative switches: when risk appetite cools, and funds withdraw from BTC and altcoins, they often first retreat back into dollar-denominated assets like USDT and USDC, keeping their positions in on-chain "cash reserves," thus hedging against price volatility while retaining flexibility for re-entry. Historically, every upturn in the total market capitalization of these types of tokens often corresponds to a phase where on-chain demand for dollar-denominated assets increases, with more funds choosing to observe or wait for better entry prices; and this time, amid higher dollar returns and tighter financial conditions, they serve both as a safe haven and an ammunition stock for the next round of risk trading.

Data and the flames of war as dual gates, what should crypto traders monitor

Whether a rate hike ultimately represents a "final decision" or merely a "scare tactic" is no longer firmly set in forward guidance, but is locked behind two gates: one is core PCE, employment, and other hard data, and the other is the Iranian war and the path of oil prices. This time, the Federal Reserve raised the 2026-2028 core PCE expectations from 2.7%, 2.2%, 2.0% to 3.3%, 2.5%, 2.1% and nearly half of the officials in the dot plot support rate hikes, indicating that as long as subsequent inflation and employment do not show a significant decline, and the war and oil prices continue to fuel input inflation, the option of raising interest rates will not disappear from the table. In such an environment where "further tightening might occur at any time," the repricing following a rise in rate hike expectations will first manifest in higher dollar short-end returns and tighter global dollar liquidity, thereby compressing the valuation multiples of high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH, while also rewriting the structure of on-chain funds: on-chain "dollar securities" (like USDT, USDC, etc.) supply and holding structures, net inflows into exchanges, derivatives holdings, and leverage levels will all serve as a thermometer reflecting whether funds choose to shelter in interest-rate assets or return to risk trading. For crypto traders, the next phase's framework is no longer about focusing on K-line charts to bet on sentiment, but rather integrating "the Federal Reserve's dot plots and speeches + core PCE and employment data + the Iranian war and oil prices" with "the proportion of on-chain dollar positions, flow to exchanges, and leverage structures" to discern which set of variables opens or closes the next trading range for BTC and ETH.

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