Kevin Walsh sat in the chairman's seat for the first time, and before the meeting started, the real focus was not on the dot plot but on how he would "speak." Since 2024, the phrase regarding "additional adjustments" in the statement has been interpreted by the market as a signal of a more likely shift toward rate cuts. In the previous meeting, some officials deemed this phrase inappropriate for the current environment. With the new chairman presiding, whether to delete or how to rewrite it became one of the key points highlighted by Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, the "Fed's mouthpiece." Standing around the phrasing, Wall Street has already taken sides: George Saravelos, head of foreign exchange at Deutsche Bank, believes that Walsh will deliberately avoid providing a clear direction for monetary policy this year, trying to weaken forward guidance to minimize interference with market pricing—according to his logic, this would weaken the dollar, opening up the path for "summer arbitrage trades"; on the other hand, Morgan Asset Management, managing about $4.3 trillion in assets, under the assumption of "persistent inflation + Fed inaction," instead encourages clients to continue holding onto stocks and other high-risk assets in the second half of 2026, reasoning that AI infrastructure investment and the resilience of American consumer spending will support economic expansion, even acknowledging that U.S. stocks have risen significantly and the risks of a correction are increasing. These two opposing positions point to the same gamble: the tone Walsh uses, whether to retain or erase the "easing bias," will redefine the direction of the dollar and global risk appetite. Demand for BTC, ETH, and dollar-denominated on-chain assets, which are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and risk sentiment, will also face a new pricing round after this communication event.

Walsh's Room for Change: A Phrase Shifting Rate Expectations

Since 2024, the phrase regarding "additional adjustments" has been read as a marker indicating "the next step is more likely a rate cut rather than a rate hike," serving as a retreat route left for the market by the Fed atop high interest rates. The problem is that this wording has already sparked internal dissent during the last meeting, and in the current macro environment seen by many participants as "inflation is not yet fully dealt with," it has started to seem "inappropriate"—an early commitment to easing is viewed by hawkish officials as noise against the determination to combat inflation. Walsh's debut is thus forced to start from this line: whether to use the previous wording, allowing the market to continue betting "it will eventually cut," or to take advantage of the change in leadership to recalibrate the boundaries of interest rate direction.

If Walsh chooses to retain this "easing bias," even if he does not provide any specific timetable for rate cuts, the market will interpret it as a signal that "the bottom line hasn't changed": the distribution of interest rate paths still tends to slope downward, expectations for interest rate volatility will be suppressed, and together with Deutsche Bank's mention of a "weakened forward guidance and a weakened dollar," global funds will be more willing to amplify leverage for interest spreads and risk assets. BTC and ETH, as high-volatility assets priced in dollars, will benefit from a combination of "a more definitive high interest rate peak + a more ambiguous rate cut timeline," enjoying a period of valuations driven by sentiment. Conversely, if Walsh deletes or significantly weakens the phrase "additional adjustments" in his debut, the focus emphasized by Timiraos will instantly turn into a pricing anchor: the market will interpret it as shifting from "easing bias" back to "genuinely neutral or even slightly hawkish," raising uncertainty in the interest rate path, and increasing yields on long-term securities and dollar volatility. The first to be sold off will often be high Beta tech stocks and crypto assets. Under the dual pressure of hedging and deleveraging, the dollar-priced values of BTC and ETH will more directly reflect the interest rate repricing brought about by this wording adjustment.

Deutsche Bank Is Bearish on the Dollar: Summer Arbitrage and Crypto Carry Trades

However, the scenario provided by Deutsche Bank is almost the opposite. Its global foreign exchange research head, George Saravelos, opines in a report sent to clients on Wednesday that Walsh's primary goal is not to provide direction for this year's rate path but to "avoid commenting on this year's monetary policy as much as possible," weakening forward guidance and minimizing the Fed's direct impact on market pricing. Within this framework, as long as he does not explicitly deliver new rate hike signals and even remains ambiguous about "the probability of not cutting rates this year," the dollar will lack a policy anchor to continue strengthening. Therefore, Deutsche Bank directly states that under these circumstances, the dollar "is likely to weaken," and "the path for summer arbitrage trades will be fully opened."

Once in the "weak dollar + vague forward guidance" zone, traditional forex world interest rate spread and exchange rate arbitrage will become active again: funds borrowed from low-yield currencies to purchase high-yield assets, along with betting on dollar depreciation, will carry this Carry logic directly into on-chain leveraged structures through demand for dollar-denominated assets like USDT and USDC. For crypto traders, a cheaper and depreciating dollar becomes a chip for amplifying positions: whether using dollar-denominated assets as margin to increase perpetual contract leverage, going long on yields in the futures relative to spot basis, or executing cross-market Carry between domestic and foreign exchanges, it all becomes more attractive with a "lighter dollar burden." Historical experience shows that during periods of phased dollar weakness, high Beta assets like BTC and ETH often enjoy valuation boosts and capital inflows. Risk appetite spills over from forex and stock markets, and what Deutsche Bank refers to as "summer arbitrage" will naturally extend into a leverage and Carry trading feast centered around crypto assets.

Morgan Asset Management Bets on AI Bull Market: Stock Market Risk Appetite Spills Into On-Chain

If Deutsche Bank is building a forex stage for "weak dollar + arbitrage," Morgan Asset Management is rewriting the entire risk cycle using the script of the stock market. The institution managing about $4.3 trillion in assets openly advises clients to continue holding stocks and other high-risk assets in the second half of 2026 under the premise of "persistent inflation + the Fed standing still." Their logic is very straightforward: as long as the AI infrastructure investment boom does not recede and American companies continue to pour money into areas like computing power and data centers along with the resilience of American consumer spending, economic expansion is expected to be prolonged. The stock market, as a core vehicle for risk assets, has reason to maintain high levels. Morgan Asset Management does not shy away from acknowledging the reality that U.S. stocks have risen significantly and risks of a correction are increasing, but within their framework, AI investment has upgraded from a "thematic story" to a main variable supporting high-risk asset pricing.

This signal from top institutions to "hold onto risk assets even in a high interest rate environment," once combined with strong performance in the AI and tech sectors, will spill over to on-chain through two channels: first, global large funds will more naturally view BTC and ETH as high Beta extensions of U.S. tech stocks—packaging "AI leaders + cloud computing" with "BTC/ETH longs" into a basket of tech growth risk exposures; second, on-chain leveraged tools using dollar-denominated tokens like USDT and USDC as margins will make these "tech growth + crypto Beta" combo trades easier to amplify. As long as the stock market, especially the AI-related sectors, remains robust, even if the Fed does not cut rates in the short term, on-chain funds will have the motivation to continue to increase allocations along this main line, translating the stock market's risk appetite into spillover demand for assets like BTC and ETH. What can truly break this transmission chain is not a change in wording from one meeting but whether AI capital expenditures and U.S. consumption can continue to support the engine of risk appetite in the stock market.

The Dollar, Interest Rates, and Bitcoin: Pricing Paths Under Two Phrasings

If Walsh chooses to retain the phrase "additional adjustments" in the statement seen as an easing signal leaning towards rate cuts, the market will interpret this as: even if it remains unchanged in the short term, the next step is more likely to be a cut rather than a hike. Uncertainty in the interest rate path is reduced, yield volatility is controlled, the dollar is under pressure, and the chain mentioned by Deutsche Bank of "weak forward guidance + weak dollar + summer arbitrage trade" has the chance to operate: funds would prefer to bet on spreads and volatility, with dollar-denominated assets like USDT and USDC more used as futures margin and leverage tools, while BTC and ETH become high Beta vehicles amplifying arbitrage in stocks and forex. Altcoins would achieve greater flexibility in this "weak dollar + arbitrage-friendly" environment.

Conversely, if Walsh deletes or significantly weakens this easing bias in his first meeting, and does not provide any new slightly easing alternative phrasing, the market will quickly interpret this as a signal that "high interest rates will persist longer, and even further hikes cannot be ruled out." The dollar and real yields will be pushed higher in expectations, and the scenario emphasized by Morgan Asset Management of "high interest rates + persistent inflation, but the stock market still supported by AI and consumption" will feel more like the official baseline: stocks and some high-risk assets will still be supported due to the AI narrative, but the valuations of dollar-denominated crypto assets will face the challenge of a higher discount rate and a stronger dollar simultaneously. Under these circumstances, on-chain funds' preference for USDT and USDC will shift from "leverage margin" to "cash surrogate," more likely to be passively held to hedge against volatility rather than actively amplifying positions. The trading style of BTC and ETH will also shift from chasing elasticity to defensive holding. What the market is really focused on is whether Walsh's wording pushes the path toward "weak dollar arbitrage" or "strong dollar defense."

Trader's Toolbox: How to Read Crypto Signals in Walsh's Debut

For crypto traders, the three core radars for this meeting are: first, whether the phrase "additional adjustments" regarded as indicating an easing bias is retained, weakened, or deleted, which will directly reprice the interest rate path; second, where the dollar ultimately falls between Deutsche Bank's envisioned outcomes of "weakened, opening up arbitrage space" and "maintaining strength, defending dollar assets"; third, whether the U.S. stock market, especially the AI sector, under Morgan Asset Management's narrative of "continuing to go long on risk assets," maintains high levels of strength or shows a drop in risk appetite. On the trading front, post-meeting strategies can be broken down into several sliders: if Walsh successfully downplays forward guidance, the dollar weakens, and the U.S. stock market and AI sector remain resilient, one could moderately increase the weight of BTC/ETH in total holdings, raise exposure to altcoin Beta, and increase moderate leverage and interest spread trading; if phrasing leans hawkish or the market interprets it as "strong dollar defense," then the inclination would be to raise ETH content for relatively stable on-chain narratives, compress high Beta altcoins and leverage, and retain more dollar-denominated chips. Post-meeting, data should be used to validate macro expectations: check whether the on-chain net flow of dollar-denominated crypto assets like USDT and USDC is for increased allocation entry or rebound from the over-the-counter market; observe whether the funding rates of perpetual contracts are turning to positive structures to drive risk accumulation or quickly reverting to zero or even turning negative; and monitor whether implied volatility and risk reversals in options are pricing "mild easing + slow bull" or starting to buy deep downside protection. All these slider adjustments must be based on one premise: whether Walsh's communication style has lowered policy uncertainty, as soon as the wording itself becomes a new source of uncertainty, the primary strategy should be to reduce leverage, compress Beta, and wait with lighter positions for the market to provide a true direction.

Join our community to discuss together and become stronger!
AiCoin exclusive Hyperliquid benefit: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
AiCoin exclusive Aster benefit: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin on-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。