On June 17, 2026, K33 Research released a Bitcoin report that didn't quite align with the price trends amidst a widespread sentiment of "bear market consensus." On one hand, the price had just experienced consecutive double-digit declines over the previous two weeks, barely rebounding about 6% from a recent low, lingering hesitantly around the $65,000 mark; on the other hand, on-chain data showed that as of June 6, long-term holders held approximately 79% of the circulating supply, setting a historical high, while only about 218,421 old coins that were reactivated after more than two years existed, which was significantly lower than the same period over the past two years. A typical "price falling, chips locked" dislocation began to take shape. Based on this, K33 offered a judgment that diverged from the market sentiment—this Bitcoin bear market might be nearing its end, but macroeconomic shadows still loomed over the conclusion: how the approaching Warsh FOMC decision would rewrite interest rate expectations and risk appetites would directly determine whether the on-chain signal of "locked chips" could smoothly transpire into a new trend inflection point for risk assets.
79% of Chips Locked: Bitcoin Enters a Period of Extreme Control
The figure of 79% provided by K33 effectively describes an extremely contracted spot world: as of June 6, approximately 79% of circulating Bitcoin was held by long-term holders, who typically show insensitivity to short-term fluctuations, resembling "allocators" rather than "traders." In other words, the chips that would truly be quickly placed on the market during price fluctuations are down to just over 20%, compressing the elasticity of spot supply to an unprecedented degree. In contrast, when prices reached historical highs from 2024 to 2025, a large number of old coins were reactivated and likely sold, reflecting a collective choice of “realizing gains at a high.” However, entering 2026, after two consecutive weeks of double-digit declines, the number of coins reactivated after more than two years was only about 218,421, significantly lower than the same period in the past two years. This "waiting out" behavior indicates that old holders would rather endure a retracement than relinquish their chips in the current range.
At the structural level on-chain, this resembles an extreme control of chips: the portion of chips willing to trade frequently and highly sensitive to macro news is compressed into the remaining circulating part, with price discovery forced to occur in a narrow "floating chips corridor." Once interest rate expectations improve post-Warsh FOMC decision, or other macro variables turn favorable for risk assets, as new funds begin to chase Bitcoin, this limited supply may exhibit a "supply squeeze" nonlinear response—buy orders would not face a continuous stream of sellers looking to cut losses, but instead would hit a "hard wall" built by long-term holders. Prices could rise swiftly with volumes not being exaggerated, which is precisely the fundamental reason K33 interprets the current structure as "bear market end with locked chips" rather than merely weak demand.
Old Coins Stagnant, Market Bottoming: Bear Market Sentiment Consumed by Time
When prices peaked during 2024-2025, a large-scale reactivation of old coins that had been held for over two years occurred, marking a typical "profit-taking at a high" market; however, as of June 6, 2026, only about 218,421 such old coins were reactivated in this adjustment phase, with K33 pointing out that this value is significantly lower than the same period over the past two years, indicating that there are not many chips willing to actively sell at present. The problem is, while sellers exit, there hasn't been a correspondingly aggressive buying surge—after recording two consecutive weeks of double-digit declines, Bitcoin only rebounded about 6% from lows and then drifted in a narrow range around $65,000, as prices seemed trapped between "old coins reluctant to sell" and "new money hesitating," grinding down over time into horizontal consolidation.
Under this structure, the sentiment is more akin to "cautious hedging" rather than panic selling: on the macro level, with the Warsh FOMC decision approaching, the uncertainty in the interest rate path leads off-market funds to prefer to first lower their risk exposure and then wait for policy signals, rather than immediately attempting to bottom-fish after the first major decline. On the on-chain supply side, the rising proportion of long-term holders makes the environment tighter, but the demand side’s wait-and-see attitude prevents this tension from being immediately transformed into a significant upward surge, evolving instead into a bottoming market characterized by shrinking transaction volumes and low volatility—selling pressure is no longer surging, but there is always a lack of incremental funds to propel the market out of its range. This is precisely the reason K33 defines the current phase as closer to the end of the bear market rather than the starting point of a new deep decline.
Wall Street Sells Options, Crypto World Hoards Spot: Collision of Two Scripts
When 79% of chips are locked by long-term holders on-chain and the spot end collectively chooses to "wait it out," Wall Street, however, provides a completely different narrative. Bitwise's CIO publicly emphasizes, "As long as the top hasn't been reached, Bitcoin remains an excellent buying opportunity," which aligns highly with the behavior logic of long-term holders on-chain—repeatedly accumulating in the bear market, betting on the new price highs and compounding benefits from the next full bull market. On the other side, 10x Research focuses on the design of BlackRock's Bitcoin Enhanced Income ETF (BITA), which involves "selling call options regularly every month," stating bluntly that such products are likely to underperform simple spot holdings in most market environments, and even absolute returns may not be ideal. Superficially, both parties claim to "help clients earn profits," but in essence, one is betting on long-term trends non-linearly while the other is pre-cashing future upside expectations by selling options premiums.
The logic behind the enhanced income ETF is to systematically sell call options to collect premiums, thus obtaining a seemingly smoother and more predictable revenue curve, but at the cost of actively forfeiting large upward space during strong one-sided market movements. The doubts raised by 10x Research, along with comments from Serenity criticizing certain Wall Street brokerages for "representing their own positions rather than necessarily the interests of retail investors," point to the same issue: in the current period, where chips are highly concentrated and potential upward elasticity is viewed by K33 as a bear market end allocation value, a portion of institutions is packaging this elasticity into current income by selling options. If products like BITA further expand in scale, the systematic selling of calls may suppress Bitcoin's upward potential and implied volatility in localized stages—every rise may become a "delivery date" for option premium strategies rather than a trend starting point. This collision of the "lock in profits, reduce volatility" narrative led by Wall Street and the "hoard spot, seek elasticity" approach of long-term holders will directly shape the risk appetite structure of Bitcoin in the next phase: whether it transforms into a slowly lifting trend capped by options or, under certain macro or funding catalysts, bursts out the sold upper convexity, determining whether the end of this bear market drags into a prolonged consolidation or passively evolves into an unexpectedly aggressive rally.
Options Game Before Warsh FOMC: Volatility Becomes the Main Battleground
As the Warsh FOMC decision approaches, what the market truly magnifies is the macro mainline of "interest rate path": once expectations for future policy rates shift, regardless of the direction, it will directly revalue the entire risk asset curve through discount rates and liquidity premiums, with Bitcoin and Ethereum not being exceptions. If interest rate expectations tighten, funds will deepen the discount on long-term returns, pushing up risk premiums, and prices need to move down or consolidate to match new return requirements; if interest rate expectations widen, liquidity discounts lessen, and the market is willing to pay higher valuations for future growth, narratives, and "digital gold" attributes. In the current environment, where 79% of circulating chips are locked by long-term holders, the activation volume of coins older than two years is relatively low, and on-chain selling pressure has significantly weakened, a slight fluctuation in these macro expectations is unlikely to immediately trigger a large-scale spot sell-off. Instead, it will more easily amplify into short-term volatility on the options and leveraged positions.
Thus, around the FOMC, the battleground shifts to the derivatives layer: BTC and ETH options consistently see amplified transactions and implied volatility repricings during significant macro events. When spot chips are "nailed down," short-term prices are more pulled by these event trading structures. Bulls are more inclined to buy call options and go long on volatility, betting on mild guidance on interest rates and a recovery in risk appetite; cautious funds hedge against possible "hawkish shocks" by buying puts, selling distant calls, or constructing spread combinations. Tools like Gate's Option Data starting from the option launch, become the "war report screen" for this game: transaction volumes show which side is actively building positions, and the Put/Call Ratio indicates whether panic hedging or optimistic bets dominate, along with the distribution among different expiration dates, revealing whether funds are betting purely on instantaneous fluctuations during the FOMC week or forecasting longer-term trend divergences. Before the tightly compressed on-chain supply and systemic selling of calls by Wall Street are thoroughly exploded, the evolution of BTC and ETH's implied volatility and Put/Call Ratio in the coming days may significantly answer a question: whether this bear market, viewed by K33 as "nearing its end," will conclude with a sluggish time-for-space ending, or be punctuated by a dramatic squeeze driven by a macro event.
Bear Market End or False Signal: Next Steps Depend on Funds and Old Coins
Placing K33's judgment of the "bear market possibly nearing its end" back in the bigger picture, it resembles a probability-weighted analysis based on the 79% of long-term holders and the low activation volume of old coins, rather than a declaration of hitting a bottom: as long as the proportion of long-term holders starts to significantly decline, and the activation of coins older than two years surges unexpectedly from the current low levels, this narrative of "selling pressure exhaustion" will be rewritten. What truly determines the trajectory of this cycle is whether the three main lines can simultaneously align with the bulls: on-chain, whether long-term holders continue to tightly hold their chips, and whether the old coins curve remains gentle; on the macro front, whether the interest rate path after Warsh FOMC will lower real interest rates and reignite global risk appetites; on the institutional front, whether the funds flowing into Bitcoin ETFs and products like BITA are directed into "pure bull duration" or are locked by a structure that systematically sells calls, limiting upward elasticity. For traders, this means that in the next phase, "price movements" can no longer crudely delineate bulls and bears; instead, one must consider the migration of spot chips, ETF subscriptions and redemptions, changes in the scale of enhanced income products, alongside options implied volatility, Skew, and Put/Call Ratio—only when funding direction, old coin behavior, and derivatives pricing resonate on the same side will this bear market, marked as "nearing its end," be more likely to transform into a truly sustainable new trend.
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