After SpaceX went public, it became the largest gathering place for retail investors. After a regular trading session surge of 20%, it reached $230 in after-hours trading due to a short squeeze effect, with a market value exceeding $3 trillion, surpassing Microsoft. Stimulated by a low float and the expectation of options listing, retail investors made astonishing net purchases over two days, and the market is closely watching whether a new round of gamma short squeeze will be triggered tonight.

Written by: Zhang Yaqi

Source: Wall Street Journal

After going public, SpaceX quickly became the largest gathering place for retail funds. The short squeeze effect in after-hours trading pushed the aerospace company's market value above $3 trillion, surpassing Microsoft and making it one of the most valuable companies in the world.

According to market data, SpaceX stock rose nearly 20% in after-hours trading, reaching about $230, with a market value exceeding $3 trillion, surpassing Microsoft’s approximately $2.97 trillion market value. Prior to this, the stock had already risen about 20% during regular trading hours, adding over $400 billion to its market value in a single day.

If this increase maintains until the official opening of U.S. stocks on Tuesday, its market value will surpass Microsoft, rising to the fourth position in U.S. stocks, behind Nvidia, Google, and Apple.

Market tracking agency Vanda Track noted that SpaceX has topped the list of the hottest retail buying targets for two consecutive trading days, with daily net purchase amounts potentially exceeding $100 million for the second day in a row. It is worth noting that SpaceX options will officially start trading when U.S. stocks open tonight, and some market participants believe this could trigger a new round of gamma short squeeze, further pushing up the stock price.

Retail funds highly concentrated, astonishing buying scale over two days

Vanda Track data shows that retail investors' net purchases of SpaceX over the past two trading days are nearly equivalent to the total net purchases by retail investors in the entire U.S. stock market last week. Just today alone, SpaceX recorded a net purchase of $93.8 million, accounting for about 73% of the total net purchase amount of all individual stocks on that day.

Vanda's conclusion is, "The overall signal has not changed: SpaceX has not triggered a widespread retail purchasing frenzy in the market, with retail investors still concentrating their funds into this single stock while maintaining a relatively cautious stance in other directions."

Analysts point out that SpaceX's low float creates natural conditions for temporary liquidity tightness, making it an ideal target for rising prices driven by out-of-the-money bullish options. Just in after-hours trading, the stock's market value added about $250 billion, along with the regular trading session increase, cumulatively adding about $650 billion to its market value in a single day.

As the market value in after-hours trading exceeded Apple's approximately $2.65 trillion and further surpassed Microsoft's, the market's focus has turned to the trends following the opening of options trading tomorrow. Some market participants predict that if a strong gamma short squeeze occurs, there is a possibility that the stock price could hit $400, at which point SpaceX's market value may surpass Nvidia, becoming the highest-valued publicly traded company in the world.

Vanda Track also noted that there are signs of some capital inflow back into the semiconductor sector. Stocks like MRVL, MU, SNDK, and AVGO recorded slight net purchases in this rebound, indicating that some retail investors are beginning to pay renewed attention to this sector.

However, the overall flow of retail investors remains highly concentrated and not widely dispersed. It is noteworthy that leveraged bearish ETFs also ranked among today's retail hot buys, indicating that market sentiment has not completely turned optimistic, and some investors are still hedging against downside risks.