For long-term investors, being entangled in this question is not very meaningful.

Written by: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise

Translated by: Chopper, Foresight News

In the past two weeks, aside from Bitwise, three cryptocurrency research institutions that I have been following for a long time have all published in-depth reports exploring the same issue: Has the cryptocurrency market hit bottom?

• Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin has not yet seen the bottom, with data pointing to a potential bottom range.
• NYDIG: What factors are suppressing Bitcoin's performance.
• Standard Chartered: The market bottom has already appeared.

The three reports are detailed, containing vast amounts of data and complete logical deductions, worth reading in full. However, if you want a simple unified answer, you might be disappointed: the judgments from the three authoritative institutions are completely different.

Has the market hit bottom?

• Galaxy Digital: No
• NYDIG: It may have found a bottom, but the likelihood is low.
• Standard Chartered: It has already found a bottom.

Next, we will break down each institution's core logic one by one.

Three institutions, three viewpoints

Galaxy Digital

Galaxy Digital reviewed Bitcoin's complete historical market performance from 2017, summarizing 13 indicators that typically appear simultaneously when the market truly hits bottom, covering six dimensions: valuation, profit-taking sell-offs, mining pressure, market trends, bull-bear cycles, and market sentiment. Long-term investors focused on Bitcoin are familiar with these indicators, including the 200-week moving average, the fear-greed index, and the Meyer multiple.

Galaxy found that currently only 4 indicators fully meet the criteria, 2 partially meet, and the remaining 7 have not triggered bottom signals. The report concludes that Bitcoin's bottom range is between $30,000 to $54,000, with a neutral benchmark bottom of $40,000 to $46,000.

NYDIG

NYDIG similarly adopts a multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation framework, comparing the current market situation with historical cycles, assessing market status from dimensions like maximum drawdown duration and holder profit-loss (referred to by Bitcoin users as "MVRV," which is the ratio of market value to actual value).

NYDIG believes that current indicators are very close to the extreme ranges of historical bottoms, but a signature, comprehensive panic sell-off typical of past major bear markets has not yet occurred. Additionally, the report suggests a variable: institutional capital entering the market has changed the underlying logic of Bitcoin cycles, and this round of correction may be smaller than in historical bear markets. From this perspective, it is possible that the bottom has already appeared.

Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered does not unconditionally bullish on Bitcoin. In February this year, when Bitcoin was priced at $67,000, the bank lowered its full-year price forecast, warning that prices might drop to $50,000 due to a weakening macroeconomic environment and continued selling pressure from Bitcoin ETFs.

However, last Friday, Standard Chartered updated its viewpoint, determining that $59,000 is the bottom of the current market trend. The two main logical supports for this viewpoint are: the United States may reach a diplomatic agreement with Iran, and the much-anticipated SpaceX is about to go public. Standard Chartered believes that the previous large number of ETF holders selling Bitcoin was to raise funds to participate in the SpaceX IPO, and the sell-off pressure will gradually decrease afterwards. Standard Chartered's latest prediction is that Bitcoin will rush to $100,000 within this year.

The consensus of three reports far exceeds the disagreement

You might wonder, what effective information can be distilled from three completely opposing reports? In fact, the underlying consensus among the three reports far exceeds their superficial disagreements. For long-term investors, the conclusions reached by all three are far more valuable than their differences:

• All three judge that the market bottom will appear this year;
• All three believe that the current market situation is closer to the bottom than to previous peaks;
• All three agree that Bitcoin is still expected to usher in a new bull market in the future.

At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin's price is about $67,000. One report states that the bottom of $59,000 has been reached, another predicts a drop to $50,000, and the last offers a neutral benchmark bottom of $43,000. But the core conclusions are highly unified: it will definitely hit bottom within this year.

This is what long-term investors should focus on most. Whether the bottom falls at $40,000, $50,000, or $60,000, the difference is actually limited; the real key is whether Bitcoin can rise to $100,000, $200,000, or even a million dollars later. As long as it can reach those price points, entering at the current price and holding long-term, the profit potential is quite substantial.

Currently, there is a highly ironic phenomenon in the market where everyone is entangled in whether the market has bottomed, while neglecting the more important question—has the top already appeared? In my view, as long as the peak has not yet come, Bitcoin possesses long-term allocation value.

The core logic supporting Bitcoin's long-term value has not only not disappeared but has continued to strengthen: the continuous accumulation of government debt with no effective resolution; inflation continually diluting the actual purchasing power of wealth; public trust in centralized institutions like governments and banks continues to decline; the global digitalization process continues to accelerate; Bitcoin's trading and investment channels are continuously improving; the early crypto-native community is aging, with their assets and industry influence rising synchronously.

Of course, the market still has potential risks, including threats from quantum computing and tightening global regulations. But overall, the current situation is better than any previous cryptocurrency winter.