Cape Verde drew 0-0 against the popular team Spain in the 2026 World Cup group stage, causing significant losses for the prediction market traders.

Written by: Bao Yilong

Source: Wall Street Watch

The draw between Cape Verde and Spain in the World Cup group stage resulted in a prediction market trader suffering nearly $1 million in losses.

In the early hours of June 16, Beijing time, in the first match of Group H of the 2026 World Cup in USA, Canada, and Mexico, Cape Verde, making its debut in the World Cup finals with a team value of less than 55 million euros, drew 0-0 with the defending favorites Spain, whose world ranking is second and team value amounts to 1.22 billion euros.

This result completely disrupted the odds landscape of the prediction market and caused significant losses for several traders who heavily bet on Spain. Data from Polymarket showed that a trader who bet on Spain's victory lost nearly a million dollars.

A Million Bet: The Strategy of Trading "Certainty" for Low Returns Fails

According to Polymarket's public trading records, a trader with the username "betoor619" took a large long position of nearly $1.1 million when Spain's win probability was about 92%.

Spain vs. Cape Verde on Polymarket, win probability curve change

If Spain won easily, the user expected to profit only about $85,000, which is a typical "low-risk, low-return" strategy: betting on a highly probable event to exchange a large principal for a small stable yield.

But in the end, the user suffered a loss of nearly $1 million.

Polymarket user "betoor619" lost $997,000 in the past 24 hours

Records show that this account was opened last October, and its profit and loss on a single event had never exceeded $9,000 before; this betting scale is more than a hundred times its historical records.

Other traders also placed large bets on Spain winning, but most simultaneously executed hedge trades, which mitigated their losses to some extent.

Polymarket allows large traders to act as market makers, holding both long and short positions in the same bet, a mechanism similar to how Wall Street institutions profit from buying and selling the same stock to earn price differences.

Behind the Upset, Cape Verde's 40-Year-Old Goalkeeper Saves the Day

Spain had previously been widely regarded as the strongest contender for the championship in this World Cup.

Wall Street Watch mentioned that Goldman Sachs models gave them a championship probability as high as 25%, the highest among all participating teams. Cape Verde not only made its World Cup debut, but also had no famous professional players in its lineup.

The core figure who turned everything around was goalkeeper Josimar José Évora Dias, nicknamed Vozinha. This 40-year-old veteran made seven key saves during the match and walked off the field in tears after the game, winning the honor of being the best player of the match.

Vozinha stated after the match that visa issues prevented his mother from witnessing this historic moment. According to relevant regulations, visitors from certain countries, including Cape Verde, must pay a refundable deposit of up to $15,000. He described this match as the goal he had worked toward "his entire career."

This draw was also one of several upsets in the days leading to the opening of this World Cup, as Japan previously staged a comeback, equalizing against the Netherlands in stoppage time.

Platform Expansion: The Mainstreaming Path from Political Betting to Sports Betting

Prediction market platforms like Polymarket have rapidly emerged from niche circles in recent years, previously known primarily as tools for betting on geopolitical and economic events, now becoming popular betting platforms for major global sporting events like the World Cup.

Platform users trade using cryptocurrency wallets and can operate with anonymous accounts, without disclosing their true identity or location. This mechanism has drawn criticism from some lawmakers, who believe the platforms fail to collect necessary user background information like traditional brokers or bookmakers.

The public trading records also provide an observation window for the outside world, allowing insight into the scale and high risks of user betting in events. Just on Monday alone in the match against Spain, total trading for Polymarket users reached $64 million.