The derivatives offered by online brokerage IG International price SpaceX’s market value at $2.4 trillion, which implies a more than 35% increase compared to the IPO issue price of $135 per share and the corresponding valuation of $1.77 trillion. Analysts characterize this pre-IPO trading as “the most sought after” on the platform to date, stating that the strong demand “has not waned even though the valuation seems high.”

Written by: Zhang Yaqi

Source: Wall Street Journal

SpaceX, owned by Musk, is about to open the door to the public market, with shadow trading conveying a strong bullish signal.

On Friday morning, the derivatives provided by online brokerage IG International priced SpaceX’s market value at $2.4 trillion, which implies a more than 35% increase compared to the IPO issue price of $135 per share and the corresponding valuation of $1.77 trillion. Meanwhile, the quote for SpaceX-linked perpetual contracts on the crypto derivatives platform Hyperliquid is around $174, implying a market value of over $2.2 trillion, with a trading volume exceeding $143 million in the past 24 hours and an open contract scale of over $208 million.

IG market analyst Fabien Yip characterized this pre-IPO trading as “the most sought after” on the platform, noting that the strong demand “has not waned even though the valuation seems high.” On the prediction market Polymarket, traders give a probability of up to 70% for SpaceX’s first-day closing market value to exceed $2 trillion.

The pricing reflects growing demand among investors for assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure. Once SpaceX makes a strong appearance, it will provide significant market endorsement for the IPO plans of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC; in the short term, the reallocation of large-scale capital may also put pressure on the “Seven Tech Giants” sector and Tesla while boosting SpaceX suppliers, peer companies, and global stakeholders.

OTC Derivatives: Two Major Platforms Indicating Valuation Exceeding $2 Trillion

The derivative tools of IG International and the perpetual contracts on the Hyperliquid platform convey similar bullish information in their own distinct ways.

The pricing from the former on Friday morning suggests that SpaceX’s market value on the first day of listing could reach $2.4 trillion, which is over 35% higher than the IPO pricing. The SpaceX-linked perpetual contracts on the Hyperliquid platform—contracts without an expiration date—were quoted at about $174, implying a market value of over $2.2 trillion. The contract saw a trading volume exceeding $143 million in the past 24 hours, with an open contract size exceeding $208 million, indicating considerable market participation depth.

Fabien Yip stated, “The demand for this IPO is strong, and pre-market trading has attracted significant interest.” She emphasized that this is the “most sought after pre-IPO trading” on the IG platform, “even though the valuation seems high.” She further pointed out, “If the pre-market pricing momentum continues, it will set a precedent for the next batch of mega IPOs.”

The data from the prediction market Polymarket also confirms this optimistic sentiment, with traders currently giving SpaceX a 70% probability of a first-day closing market value exceeding $2 trillion.

Short-term Impact: The Seven Giants and Tesla Facing Capital Drain

A strong debut could boost market sentiment but may also lead to a reallocation of capital in the short term. SpaceX’s listing could draw some funds away from the “Seven Tech Giants” and even Tesla, as investors may adjust their portfolios to include this emerging public market target.

On the other hand, suppliers, peer companies, and global stakeholders closely related to SpaceX’s rocket and satellite business are expected to benefit from this market enthusiasm.

The outcome of SpaceX’s listing has profound reference value for the entire primary market landscape. A strong first-day performance will provide powerful evidence to investment bankers, showing that the public market can digest a trillion-dollar valuation that was unimaginable a few years ago, which is particularly critical for the potential IPO plans of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC.

The backdrop to this logic is the high market attention towards assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure. If SpaceX can successfully achieve a trillion-dollar valuation in the public market, it will somewhat reduce the difficulty subsequent unicorns face in seeking high-valuation IPOs.