Author: David, Shenchao TechFlow

In the stock subsection community on Reddit, stocks that see a surge in discussion are not necessarily worth buying, but they are certainly attracting attention as discussions are often driven by some underlying catalyst.

Our monitoring tool scans the volume of discussions and sentiment distribution across various major stock communities on Reddit every day, extracting abnormal signals for further analysis.

Last week's hot sentiment signals were concentrated on the space sector:

SPCE (Virgin Galactic) had a discussion volume of 2828 in 24 hours, ranking first in the heat index; at the same time, RKLB (Rocket Lab) saw a 3.3-fold increase in discussion volume, while LUNR (Intuitive Machines) and ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) also frequently appeared in hot discussion areas.

These four stocks are often grouped together on Reddit because they are among the few pure space assets available for retail investors. Over the years that SpaceX has not been publicly listed, these few have served as alternatives for retail investors to allocate to the "space theme."

Currently, in Reddit's US stock community, a common discussion theme is "Which companies am I missing from my space-themed investments," which can somewhat reflect the emotional spillover effect of SpaceX and the anticipation that foreign retail investors might stoke interest in the space concept and prepare their allocations in advance.

From the trends of these stocks so far, within the same sector, they have diverged in opposite directions: SPCE surged 22% in a single day, while RKLB dropped 15%, LUNR fell 13%, and ASTS decreased by 7%.

Consequently, current discussions are centered around SPCE as the new attention drawn by profitability effects, while RKLB/LUNR/ASTS are discussions sparked by downward or loss anxiety from existing holdings.

If you are also following the space sector or have corresponding positions, the following analysis on the recent movements of these four US stocks may provide some assistance in decision-making.

Most space stocks are down, influenced by multiple negative events

Aside from $SPCE, this round of space stock declines is affected by at least three negative events that coincided within the same week.

Blue Origin rocket explosion.

Blue Origin is the space company founded by Amazon's Jeff Bezos, with a heavy-lift launch vehicle called New Glenn, competing in the same market as SpaceX's Falcon Heavy and Rocket Lab's developing Neutron. On May 29, New Glenn exploded during a static fire test at Cape Canaveral, prompting immediate grounding orders from the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration, which must approve all commercial launches).

This incident greatly impacted $ASTS:

The company plans to launch 45 to 60 satellites by the end of the year, and Blue Origin is one of its main launch suppliers, with the grounding cutting off a direct launch channel.

$RKLB does not rely on New Glenn for launches, but its developing Neutron is a competitor, and the explosion has made investors more aware of the actual risks of rocket development. Another space stock, $LUNR, is also affected, more as part of the sector-wide sentiment.

However, $SPCE benefited from this situation. Virgin Galactic operates suborbital space tourism and competes directly with Blue Origin's New Shepard. After the New Glenn explosion, market funds flowed out from Blue Origin concept stocks, with some pouring into SPCE. Additionally, SPCE’s smaller market capitalization allows for more pronounced price fluctuations.

SpaceX's IPO pricing might happen as soon as June 11.

SpaceX's S-1 document was confidentially submitted in April, aiming for a valuation of $1.8 trillion and raising up to $75 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO in Wall Street history. Over the past few years, RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS have been favorites partly because SpaceX is not publicly listed; these have been the only space entry point for retail investors. With SpaceX's IPO underway, some funds naturally will shift out from these alternatives to make room for SpaceX.

Insiders are selling.

Public data shows that RKLB's CEO Peter Beck sold about 2.51 million shares in the past six months, cashing out approximately $142 million. The president, COO, and general counsel have also recently reduced their holdings by about $18 million.

Part of this was arranged in advance under a 10b5-1 plan (a type of preset trading arrangement for compliant selling by CEOs), but the timing occurred near historical highs. Over the past year, RKLB has risen 412%, ASTS has increased 437%, and LUNR has climbed 267%, with a relatively loose profit-taking structure.

The four "space companies" are not doing the same thing

Retail investors tend to view SPCE, RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS as a sector to buy and sell together, but the businesses, revenue stages, and risk characteristics of these four companies are entirely different.

From the table above, it can be seen that RKLB is the only one with substantial revenue that is accelerating growth.

Looking at the revenue for the first quarter of this year, RKLB's revenue is generated from individual contracts, increasing by 63.5% year over year, exceeding analyst expectations. Although LUNR's figures are similarly large, the primary contributor is actually the revenue derived from acquiring a company named Lanteris for $800 million this year; if that is taken out, its organic growth is not as impressive, and ultimately its revenue still fell 9% short of analyst expectations.

ASTS and SPCE show nearly no bars in this chart, with revenue sizes negligible compared to the first two.

RKLB: The only one among the four with accelerating fundamentals, but $122 is already expensive

Rocket Lab is the second largest rocket company in the US. Its self-developed Electron small rocket has completed over 50 launches, while it also builds satellite platforms and space components to sell to NASA, the Department of Defense, and commercial clients. Government and commercial revenue each accounts for half, with a much more diversified customer structure than the other three.

The Neutron medium-lift rocket that the company is developing is the biggest variable. Neutron is positioned as a direct competitor to SpaceX's Falcon 9; if its maiden flight is successful, RKLB will upgrade from "small launch service provider" to "the only publicly traded company capable of delivering medium payloads apart from SpaceX." The maiden flight target is Q4 2026, but it has already been postponed twice (due to first-stage fuel tank testing failures causing schedule adjustments). This also means that the valuation space corresponding to success and failure is completely different.

Regarding this company's Q1 financial numbers, they can be seen in the forthcoming charts. Here are three additional points that are not visible in the table:

First, among the $2.2 billion in hand orders, there is an $816 million contract with the SDA (Space Development Agency), which is Rocket Lab's largest single order in history, indicating that the company is transforming from a launch service provider to a "full-stack space supplier."

Second, in Q1, five exclusive launch contracts for Neutron were signed, with clients booking before the rocket has even flown, indicating increasing market confidence in Neutron.

Third, CEO Peter Beck cashed out $142 million in the past six months; although it was through a 10b5-1 plan, this level of sell-off is not small in the space industry.

In terms of valuation, the company’s Forward P/S is around 80 times. This multiple embodies three assumptions: Neutron’s success, continuous growth in defense orders, and expanded gross margins; if any one of these assumptions fails, this valuation may not hold.

Overall, the current price of $122 has priced in good news fairly adequately; if it can return to the $96 to $102 range (near the 50-day moving average), the risk-to-reward ratio would be much better.

Trend judgment: bullish bias, but one can wait for a better price. The core catalysts are the Q4 Neutron maiden flight progress and Q2 earnings report on August 6.

The other three: Need to wait for more catalysts, beware of a short squeeze situation

We can pull the core financial metrics of these four hot space stocks together for a more intuitive comparison:

LUNR: $187 million in revenue tripled, but mainly from acquisitions

Intuitive Machines helps NASA deliver equipment to the lunar surface and is a core contractor for NASA's CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) program. The triple increased revenue for Q1 looks good, but the $800 million acquisition of Lanteris is the main contributor, and the organic growth rate is far from the exaggerated 199%.

On the other hand, revenue fell short of expectations by 9%, and EPS was four times lower than expected.

In the second half of the year, the IM-3 lunar landing mission is a decisive milestone. Previously, the IM-1 lander flipped, and IM-2 landed but faced communication issues. If IM-3 achieves a successful soft landing in the lunar south pole, subsequent NASA contracts will have basis; failure would diminish the entire narrative.

A Forward P/S of 6.4 times looks the cheapest, but with a gross margin of only 19%, a low P/S does not equate to being undervalued. Analysts' target price is $40.78, and the current price of $38.21 is already very close.

Trend judgment: neutral to bearish, wait for the IM-3 results before making decisions.

ASTS: The biggest story, but the grounding of Blue Origin directly disrupted the narrative

AST SpaceMobile is building a network of space mobile base stations, allowing regular phones to connect directly to satellites without modifications. The 4 billion people globally without signal represent a potential market; both AT&T and Verizon have signed collaboration agreements, and the FCC has also issued licenses.

The story framework is sound, but the issue may lie in the execution pace. To achieve meaningful coverage, 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites must be launched by the end of the year, but the two incidents with Blue Origin have directly cut off a launch channel.

Satellite analyst Tim Farrar warns that the realistically available Falcon 9 launch opportunities this year are only 3 to 5. Deutsche Bank has downgraded its rating on the stock to Hold, with an average analyst target price of $82.24, which is still 22% lower than the current price.

Holding $3.5 billion in cash means there is no immediate cash shortage, but with a Forward P/S of 177 times, the pricing has already assumed all satellites will be launched on time.

Trend judgment: high risk, wait for Blue Origin’s resumption schedule to clarify before considering.

SPCE: The one with the highest discussion volume on Reddit, beware of a short squeeze

Virgin Galactic operates suborbital space tourism, with a ticket priced at $750,000. After pausing commercial flights in 2024, it will focus on developing the Delta spacecraft, planning glide tests in Q3 and power tests in Q4. Q1 revenue was $1.5 million (not billion), with a market cap of $760 million.

The driving force behind this surge has been the incident with Blue Origin's competitor, a 23.2% short ratio triggering a short squeeze, coupled with retail FOMO, leading to trading volume reaching 12 times the usual amount and triggering a volatility circuit breaker intraday.

RSI has already reached 90 (this index fluctuates between 0 and 100; exceeding 70 is considered overbought, and 90 indicates an extreme state...).

Trend judgment: avoid. There is no income support or profit timeline. The highest discussion volume on Reddit does not equate to the highest investment value.

Have we dropped out of the golden pit? It's too early to say now

Answering the question in the article title: we believe it is still not the golden pit, but if it continues to decline, RKLB might be approaching a reasonable entry range.

The Blue Origin explosion is a substantial downside (directly affecting ASTS's launch plans), while the SpaceX IPO represents a short-term funding shock (post-IPO, sector attention may actually rise), and profit-taking at high levels is inherently healthy.

The long-term logic of the sector hasn't broken down, but short-term pricing is indeed running ahead of the fundamentals.

If we must rank these four, RKLB is the only one worth serious tracking, with $2.2 billion in orders, a 43% gross margin, and continuous earnings beats; after SpaceX's IPO, its rarity as "the only publicly traded full-stack space company" becomes even more pronounced.

However, the current price of $122 may still be expensive; the $96 to $102 range seems more reasonable.

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This article is based on public information and independent analysis for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, and caution is advised when entering the market.

Data sources: Yahoo Finance · SEC Filing · TradingView · Reddit/ApeWisdom · Stocktwits · CNBC · TipRanks · Simply Wall St

Tide Research · TideResearch · June 2, 2026